Sales of single-family, re-sale homes fell in Alameda County for the fourth year in a row, dropping 40.7% from 2007. Condo sales were off for the third year in a row, dropping 42.1%.
As could be expected, the lower end of the market was hardest hit. Cities such as San Leandro and San Lorenzo saw home sales fall more than 40%. Sales in Newark and Oakland were down by 30% plus. On the other hand, high-priced cities saw much smaller declines: Piedmont - down 11%, Berkeley - down 17.7%, Dublin - down 7.7%.
Annual appreciation was up in 2007. The median price for homes gained 2.4%. The average price rose 3.4%. Again, these gains were due entirely to the high-end of the market being a higher proportion of sales. Prices in the low end of the market are falling.
The median price for condos fell 0.2% to $439,000, and the average price dropped 0.5% to $460,923.
Days on market increased for both homes and condos.
The story of the year was the credit crunch. It slashed demand to the bone. Gone are 100% mortgages and no-doc mortgages. The tightening of underwriting has caused many people not to qualify for a home loan. Plus, the spread premium between conventional and jumbo loans, needed to buy almost anything in the city, rose from a typical 0.5-0.75 to 1.5.
Sales were already weak before the credit crunch, but afterwards, they went into free-fall. In the first eight months of the year, sales were down, year-over-year, in the teens and twenties. Starting in September, these are the year-over-year declines in single-family, re-sale homes: -54.4%, -44.5%, -39.8%, and -47.8% in December.
As for predicting 2008, we're not going to even try. The talking heads are all over the place and they're throwing out statistics to support every position. The thing to remember is real estate is very localized. What happens in one city does not carry over to other cities.
| Alameda County | ||||||||
| (Single Family Homes) | ||||||||
| Prices | Other | Percent Change | ||||||
| Average | Median | Sold | DOM | SP/LP | Average | Median | Sold | |
| 1999 | $329,249 | $289,000 | 14,448 | 31 | 100.5% | |||
| 2000 | $419,377 | $363,800 | 13,796 | 21 | 103.5% | 27.4% | 25.9% | -4.5% |
| 2001 | $446,291 | $394,000 | 10,751 | 27 | 100.1% | 6.4% | 8.3% | -22.1% |
| 2002 | $493,983 | $435,000 | 13,101 | 26 | 100.4% | 10.7% | 10.4% | 21.9% |
| 2003 | $520,771 | $464,950 | 14,002 | 29 | 99.8% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 6.9% |
| 2004 | $613,225 | $550,000 | 13,519 | 21 | 102.2% | 17.8% | 18.3% | -3.4% |
| 2005 | $720,669 | $650,000 | 11,847 | 19 | 103.3% | 17.5% | 18.2% | -12.4% |
| 2006 | $727,079 | $650,000 | 10,220 | 28 | 100.0% | 0.9% | 0.0% | -13.7% |
| 2007 | $751,487 | $665,500 | 7,309 | 36 | 99.2% | 3.4% | 2.4% | -28.5% |
| Alameda County | ||||||||
| (Condominiums) | ||||||||
| Prices | Other | Percent Change | ||||||
| Average | Median | Sold | DOM | SP/LP | Average | Median | Sold | |
| 1999 | $197,514 | $184,000 | 3,558 | 24 | 100.2% | |||
| 2000 | $258,236 | $242,000 | 3,638 | 18 | 102.7% | 30.7% | 31.5% | 2.2% |
| 2001 | $297,630 | $281,500 | 2,786 | 25 | 99.9% | 15.3% | 16.3% | -23.4% |
| 2002 | $315,936 | $299,000 | 3,520 | 26 | 99.9% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 26.3% |
| 2003 | $333,076 | $315,000 | 3,922 | 29 | 99.8% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 11.4% |
| 2004 | $377,792 | $360,000 | 3,864 | 18 | 102.2% | 13.4% | 14.3% | -1.5% |
| 2005 | $458,379 | $439,000 | 3,592 | 17 | 103.2% | 21.3% | 21.9% | -7.0% |
| 2006 | $463,370 | $440,000 | 3,160 | 32 | 99.8% | 1.1% | 0.2% | -12.0% |
| 2007 | $460,923 | $439,000 | 2,317 | 40 | 98.7% | -0.5% | -0.2% | -26.7% |
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