Statistical Tables | | REARVIEW MIRROR REFLECTING SOFTER PATCH

Trends at a Glance
(Single-family Homes)
  Feb 19 Jan 19 Feb 18
Median Price: $860,000 $825,000 $830,000
Average Price: $948,703 $889,298 $916,366
Home Sales: 521 493 521
SP/LP Ratio: 103.9% 100.9% 107.6%
Days on Market: 30 37 22
(Condos/Townhomes)
  Feb 19 Jan 19 Feb 18
Median Price: $615,000 $600,000 $650,000
Average Price: $640,596 $626,365 $661,961
Condo Sales: 175 161 185
SP/LP Ratio: 102.8% 101.3% 107.2%
Days on Market: 29 38 21

Upcoming Tech IPOs to Boost Prices

2019 is slated to produce a long list of multi-billion-dollar IPOs from San Francisco Bay Area heavyweights like Lyft, Uber, Palantir, Pinterest, Airbnb, Slack, Postmates, and Instacart. The result will be a massive and sudden injection of liquid cash into a region already infamous for having the nation’s priciest real estate, according to Patrick Howell O'Neill, writing for Gizmodo.

One of the projections in his article is the IPOs will produce 211 techie buyers to purchase property above $10 million, while thousands more are expected to buy above $1 million.

While these IPOs won’t have as much effect in Alameda County, nevertheless, people do commute from here to Silicon Valley.

To read the full article, go to https://tinyurl.com/y45rc6qy

Home Prices Bounce Back

Sales prices for single-family, re-sale homes were up last month after falling two months in a row. The average sales price gained 6.7% from January. Year-over-year, it was up 3.5%. The median price rose 3.6%, year-over-year. It was up 4.2% from January.

Sales prices for condos were mixed. They were up from January, but down year-over-year. The median price was down 5.4% over last year, and the average sales price was down 3.2%. Compared to January, the median sales price rose 2.5% and the average sale prices rose 2.3%.

The sales price to list price ratio remains in triple digits: 103.9% for homes and 102.8% for condos.

Home sales were flat year-over-year. Sales were up 5.7% from January.

Condo sales were down 5.4% from last year, but, they were up 8.7% from January.

Homes are selling in thirty days from being listed to going under contract. Condos are taking twenty-nine days.

Momentum Statistics

Sales momentum…
for single-family homes fell 0.3 of a point to –1.8.

Pricing momentum…
for single-family homes was down 0.2 of a point to +7.2.

Our momentum statistics are based on 12-month moving averages to eliminate monthly and seasonal variations.

This is an extraordinarily tough market for buyers. It's important to be calm and realistic. If you don't know what to do or where to begin, give me a call and let's discuss your situation and your options.

If you’re looking to sell, call me for a comprehensive Comparative Market Analysis.

In the chart below…

the blue area shows momentum for home sales while the red line shows momentum for pending sales of single-family, re-sale homes. The purple line shows momentum for the median price.

This is an extraordinarily tough market for buyers. It's important to be calm and realistic. If you don't know what to do or where to begin, give me a call and let's discuss your situation and your options.

 

Alameda County Days on Market

Alameda County Days on Market

The real estate market is very hard to generalize. It is a market made up of many micro markets. For complete information on a particular neighborhood or property, call me.

If I can help you devise a strategy, call or click the buying or selling link in the menu to the left.

Monthly Statistics

Complete monthly sales statistics for the Alameda County are below. Monthly graphs are available for each city in the county.

February Sales Statistics
(Single-family Homes)
  Prices Unit     Change from last year Change from last month
Area Median Average Sales DOM SP/LP Median Average Sales Median Average Sales
County $860,000 $948,703 521 30 103.9% 3.6% 3.5% 0.0% 4.2% 6.7% 5.7%
Alameda $1,077,500 $1,195,191 16 17 105.0% 12.8% 20.4% -15.8% -0.4% 7.6% 33.3%
Albany $1,173,500 $1,173,500 2 12 120.7% 18.5% 20.0% -60.0% 18.4% 8.9% -66.7%
Berkeley $1,300,000 $1,299,764 26 16 102.8% 7.4% 4.3% 13.0% 10.6% 7.4% -7.1%
Castro Valley $915,000 $939,456 28 28 99.6% 8.9% -1.0% -3.4% 14.0% 15.3% 16.7%
Dublin $1,030,000 $1,053,641 31 27 100.3% -0.5% -0.6% -6.1% 17.0% 2.2% 34.8%
Fremont $1,105,000 $1,166,234 54 30 99.7% -1.2% -7.5% 17.4% 7.3% 5.2% -1.8%
Hayward $701,500 $735,372 56 37 100.1% 2.4% 0.1% -20.0% 1.7% 0.6% 19.1%
Livermore $790,000 $901,512 57 27 99.3% -1.0% 2.7% 23.9% 3.3% -0.4% 21.3%
Newark $885,000 $881,667 15 50 95.0% -9.2% -13.7% 15.4% 4.1% 0.3% -21.1%
Oakland $715,000 $840,347 129 31 108.5% 15.3% 15.4% -3.0% 17.7% 20.6% 15.2%
Piedmont $1,766,500 $1,837,167 6 12 104.5% -49.5% -44.2% 100.0% -16.3% -12.9% 200.0%
Pleasanton $1,129,000 $1,302,408 33 25 97.9% -1.8% 1.5% 17.9% 0.1% 9.3% 0.0%
San Leandro $659,000 $684,909 37 33 100.0% -2.4% -1.3% -5.1% 1.9% 1.6% 2.8%
San Lorenzo $600,000 $585,308 13 35 100.0% -7.8% -9.3% 8.3% -3.7% -5.6% -13.3%
Union City $871,000 $907,471 17 34 98.9% -13.8% -10.1% -19.0% -3.2% -4.6% -48.5%

 

February Sales Statistics
(Condos/Town Homes)
  Prices Unit     Change from last year Change from last month
  Median Average Sales DOM SP/LP Median Average Sales Median Average Sales
County $615,000 $640,596 175 29 102.8% -5.4% -3.2% -5.4% 2.3% 2.5% 8.7%
Alameda $659,500 $734,250 10 34 101.4% 0.8% 11.6% 0.0% 6.2% -6.2% 0.0%
Albany $0 $0 0 0 0.0% n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
Berkeley $700,000 $776,667 6 57 106.1% -19.8% -16.9% -25.0% 5.0% -5.4% 200.0%
Castro Valley $570,000 $642,600 5 43 103.5% 3.4% 5.6% 25.0% 0.8% 1.3% -16.7%
Dublin $755,000 $705,225 17 26 100.5% 2.7% 1.7% -19.0% -1.0% 2.0% 13.3%
Emeryville $600,000 $598,889 9 28 102.0% 15.9% 3.4% 12.5% 16.6% 33.6% 28.6%
Fremont $670,000 $686,637 20 36 101.0% -7.2% -10.0% -35.5% -8.5% -10.1% 11.1%
Hayward $583,000 $574,421 19 35 100.3% 4.4% 0.9% -20.8% 9.6% 13.2% -5.0%
Livermore $599,000 $584,308 13 46 99.3% -1.0% -2.8% 8.3% 4.1% -3.4% 62.5%
Newark $595,000 $626,498 6 33 99.1% -17.4% -13.8% -14.3% -1.1% 1.5% 0.0%
Oakland $626,000 $667,849 43 17 108.9% -3.7% -3.3% 30.3% -3.8% -2.2% 22.9%
Pleasanton $682,500 $679,917 6 16 99.8% 18.7% 15.3% -33.3% 3.0% 4.2% -25.0%
San Leandro $529,500 $505,125 8 24 102.2% 28.8% 18.2% -20.0% 19.2% 22.4% -42.9%
Union City $486,250 $518,358 12 14 99.3% -2.8% -16.8% 71.4% -10.6% -14.3% 50.0%

REARVIEW MIRROR REFLECTING SOFTER PATCH

March 1, 2019 -- Although certain confirmations were delayed by the month-long government shutdown, there can be no doubt that economic activity in the fourth quarter of 2018 softened somewhat.

Data covering the end of that period is still trickling out, but December seems a long time ago now, and of course, things continue to change. Newer data covering January and February suggest relatively improving fortunes for the U.S. economy even as there are a number of headwinds.

In his semi-annual testimony before Congress this week, Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell noted that the picture has turned more mixed, saying that "Over the past few months we have seen some crosscurrents and conflicting signals," and adding that "Right now, the predominant risks to our economy are slowing global growth."

After the December rate hike further spooked already-unnerved financial markets, the Fed took great pains to explain that despite the increase, it had moved to a more patient, neutral stance. That message has been played at every opportunity, and soothed markets have since improved measurably. It was reiterated again this week by Mr. Powell.

"With our policy rate in the range of neutral, with muted inflation pressures and with some of the downside risks we've talked about, this is a good time to be patient and watch and wait and see how the situation evolves," he stated Tuesday before the Senate Banking Committee.

Amid the worst December for stock markets in about 90 years and the highest 30-year fixed mortgage rates in about 7, it's little wonder that housing starts plummeted during the month. An 11.2% decline in new residential construction was tallied during the month, with housing starts dropping to 1.078 million annualized units under construction. Single-family starts declined by 6.7%, falling to 758,000 while those for multi-family units slumped 20.4% to 320,000 units under construction. Permits for future activity were rather improved by comparison, rising by 0.3% to 1.326 million for the period. As well, builder sentiment also has improved of late, so the prospects for firmer activity seem pretty solid. We'll get the December report for sales of new homes on March 4, but there will have been two months of actual activity reflecting improving conditions since then.

Lower mortgage rates help home sales, of course. Since December's 7-year highs, 30-year fixed-rate mortgages have retreated to one-year lows, and that has sparked some interest. The National Association of Realtors noted that its Pending Home Sales Index rose by 4.6% in January compared to December, and with a 45- to 60-day lag to closing and recordation, it would seem that we'll start to see an upturn in existing home sales before long.

With the still-solid GDP report covering the fourth quarter leading the way, underlying interest rates that influence fixed-rate mortgages moved higher late in the week and mortgage rates are likely to follow. However, the GDP report is backward-looking and we're already two-thirds through the first quarter of 2019, where incoming data has generally has had a mixed-to-softer tone. With this in mind, while odds may favor firmer mortgage rates in the next week there will likely also be a bit of present-reality tempering in place. As such, we think that the average 30-year FRM as reported by Freddie Mac next Thursday will rise by perhaps just four or five basis points.