Statistical Tables | | TRADE POLICY TRUMPS FED; RATES HEAD LOWER

Trends at a Glance
(Single-family Homes)
  Jul 19 Jun 19 Jul 18
Median Price: $950,000 $952,000 $956,000
Average Price: $1,057,633 $1,078,768 $1,042,229
Home Sales: 936 979 1070
SP/LP Ratio: 106.2% 105.1% 107.9%
Days on Market: 23 22 18
(Condos/Townhomes)
  Jul 19 Jun 19 Jul 18
Median Price: $622,500 $660,100 $681,000
Average Price: $653,819 $685,666 $693,888
Condo Sales: 290 283 320
SP/LP Ratio: 102.9% 102.7% 106.1%
Days on Market: 23 25 16

Home Sales & Prices Continue to Slip

The median sales price was down for the fifth month in a row, falling 0.6% from last July. It was down 0.2% from June.

The average sales price was up 1.5%, year-over-year. It was down 2% from June.

The average sales prices for condos was down 4.6% from June. It was down 5.8% year-over-year. The median sales price was down 8.6% from June, and, it was down 4.6% year-over-year.

The sales price to list price ratio remains in triple digits: 106.2% for homes and 102.9% for condos.

Home sales were down 12.5%, year-over-year. Sales were off 4.4% from June.

Condo sales were down 948% from last year, but, they were up 2.5% from June.

Homes and condos sold in twenty-three days from being listed to going under contract.

Momentum Statistics

Sales momentum…

for single-family homes fell 2.8 points to –9.3.

Pricing momentum…

for single-family homes was down 0.8 of a point to +0.6.

Our momentum statistics are based on 12-month moving averages to eliminate monthly and seasonal variations.

This is an extraordinarily tough market for buyers. It's important to be calm and realistic. If you don't know what to do or where to begin, give me a call and let's discuss your situation and your options.

If you’re looking to sell, call me for a comprehensive Comparative Market Analysis.

In the chart below…

the blue area shows momentum for home sales while the red line shows momentum for pending sales of single-family, re-sale homes. The purple line shows momentum for the median price.

This is an extraordinarily tough market for buyers. It's important to be calm and realistic. If you don't know what to do or where to begin, give me a call and let's discuss your situation and your options.

 

Alameda County Days on Market

Alameda County Days on Market

The real estate market is very hard to generalize. It is a market made up of many micro markets. For complete information on a particular neighborhood or property, call me.

If I can help you devise a strategy, call or click the buying or selling link in the menu to the left.

Monthly Statistics

Complete monthly sales statistics for the Alameda County are below. Monthly graphs are available for each city in the county.

July Sales Statistics
(Single-family Homes)
  Prices Unit     Change from last year Change from last month
Area Median Average Sales DOM SP/LP Median Average Sales Median Average Sales
County $950,000 $1,057,633 936 23 106.2% -0.6% 1.5% -12.5% -0.2% -2.0% -4.4%
Alameda $1,200,000 $1,206,830 51 16 105.0% 9.1% 3.0% 4.1% 0.0% 1.8% 75.9%
Albany $1,097,500 $1,162,082 14 31 120.7% -9.3% -8.7% 180.0% 3.1% 8.7% 75.0%
Berkeley $1,425,000 $1,535,532 57 19 102.8% 12.6% 8.0% -30.5% 1.8% 4.3% -1.7%
Castro Valley $920,000 $966,110 49 24 99.6% 2.2% -2.8% -7.5% 2.8% -2.0% 44.1%
Dublin $1,065,000 $1,088,372 40 30 100.3% 0.5% 0.8% -14.9% -5.5% -5.5% -35.5%
Fremont $1,125,000 $1,201,571 99 21 99.7% -6.3% -6.3% -30.3% -3.8% -2.7% -23.8%
Hayward $720,500 $787,665 92 23 100.1% 0.3% 1.9% -21.4% 6.7% 12.6% -8.9%
Livermore $815,000 $976,348 93 24 99.3% -4.1% 7.0% -4.1% -0.6% 3.8% -11.4%
Newark $982,500 $992,882 34 40 95.0% -1.8% -1.7% -5.6% 8.4% 2.3% 17.2%
Oakland $862,500 $990,023 248 20 108.5% 13.5% 16.3% 8.3% -2.0% -2.1% 13.2%
Piedmont $2,337,500 $2,983,333 6 33 104.5% 6.3% 26.4% -45.5% 3.3% 23.3% -57.1%
Pleasanton $1,257,500 $1,329,129 60 27 97.9% -2.4% -6.6% -21.1% 1.8% -10.9% -22.1%
San Leandro $726,000 $762,218 38 17 100.0% 2.3% 5.5% -40.6% -2.3% -1.1% -22.4%
San Lorenzo $680,888 $673,660 23 17 100.0% -2.0% -2.7% 21.1% -4.1% -2.7% -8.0%
Union City $910,000 $932,792 31 34 98.9% -13.1% -11.7% -24.4% -2.7% -2.2% -16.2%

 

July Sales Statistics
(Condos/Town Homes)
  Prices Unit     Change from last year Change from last month
  Median Average Sales DOM SP/LP Median Average Sales Median Average Sales
County $622,500 $653,819 290 23 102.9% -8.6% -5.8% -9.4% -4.6% -5.7% 2.5%
Alameda $770,000 $723,921 19 20 104.6% 2.3% -4.0% 58.3% -5.0% -2.1% 58.3%
Albany $522,500 $528,078 5 24 105.6% -11.4% -6.1% -16.7% 3.5% 13.6% 0.0%
Berkeley $763,050 $945,275 4 13 120.1% -12.0% 11.7% -20.0% 2.0% -15.2% -60.0%
Castro Valley $597,500 $612,333 6 11 105.2% 13.8% 15.2% 50.0% -1.1% -11.8% -25.0%
Dublin $672,500 $675,952 22 21 100.1% -10.9% -9.8% -40.5% -5.8% -3.9% -12.0%
Emeryville $607,750 $607,569 14 18 107.0% -17.5% -14.0% 27.3% 7.1% 11.3% 40.0%
Fremont $755,000 $761,520 45 24 99.4% -1.6% -0.7% -19.6% 0.2% 4.7% 0.0%
Hayward $534,500 $557,620 40 21 100.5% -8.6% -9.2% 14.3% -0.7% -5.1% 11.1%
Livermore $610,000 $596,300 15 34 99.0% -2.6% -3.0% -25.0% 0.8% -0.5% -6.3%
Newark $550,000 $587,000 5 16 100.7% -25.8% -19.9% -66.7% -26.0% -33.7% -54.5%
Oakland $640,000 $686,791 74 24 106.7% -4.5% 0.4% -3.9% -6.6% -8.6% 12.1%
Pleasanton $626,000 $659,000 10 28 99.4% -17.7% -6.1% -9.1% -11.2% -5.9% -28.6%
San Leandro $465,000 $500,346 17 22 102.5% 3.3% 3.5% 112.5% 6.1% 6.9% 41.7%
Union City $562,500 $572,096 14 37 100.4% -15.4% -12.8% -6.7% -4.2% -3.4% 40.0%

Trade Policy Trumps Fed; Rates Head Lower

August 2, 2019 -- In about as widely advertised a move as is possible, the Federal Reserve cut short-term interest rates this week. As it was widely expected, the initial reaction by financial markets was mostly muted, but additional statements by Fed Chairman Jay Powell disappointed stock investors, who were hoping for either a larger cut now or an implicit promise that more cuts were likely to come. They got neither; in fact, the Fed chair characterized the first cut in the federal funds rate as a "mid-cycle adjustment", and proffered that the FOMC didn't see this as "the beginning of a long series of rate cuts" even though the Fed certainly hadn't ruled out future rate reductions, either.

Construction spending slumped again in June, declining by 1.3% overall. Soft spending on residential structures (-0.5%) was joined by a third decline in outlays for commercial building and a second monthly fall in public-sector spending. The headline decline now sees construction spending 2.1% below the same time last year, and given modest sales of new homes, the ongoing saga with retailers and more it may be hard for construction spending to gain much traction in the near term.

Mortgage rates had been roughly holding a plateau -- in fact, in four of the last five weeks the average offered rate for a conforming 30-year sported a 3.75% rate with just one slight flare higher to break it up. Until Friday, that looked to be the case for another week, but no more. The stable period for rates will break next week, when it looks like a fair-sized decline will be hitting the markets. At present, the decline in the 30-year FRM when Freddie Mac reports next Thursday is likely to be perhaps 10-12 basis points, but could be a little more or less depending on how much residual disappointment and concern remains in global stock markets early next week.