Statistical Tables | | Volatile Markets, Softer Rates To Start 2019

Trends at a Glance
(Single-family Homes)
  Dec 18 Nov 18 Dec 17
Median Price: $849,500 $900,000 $860,000
Average Price: $944,087 $1,005,284 $958,069
Home Sales: 618 822 788
SP/LP Ratio: 101.8% 104.0% 105.9%
Days on Market: 35 29 23
(Condos/Townhomes)
  Dec 18 Nov 18 Dec 17
Median Price: $620,000 $610,000 $577,500
Average Price: $637,327 $636,330 $603,206
Condo Sales: 193 238 234
SP/LP Ratio: 100.3% 101.7% 104.4%
Days on Market: 32 28 21

Home Prices Continue to Fall

The real estate market in the Bay Area continues to soften. The sales price to list price ratio in Alameda County is at its lowest level since January 2014. While still over 100%, the trend will have it below that mark soon.

The average sales price for single-family, re-sale homes dropped below $1,000,000 for the first time since February. It was down 6.1% from November. Year-over-year, the average price fell 1.5%.This is the first time the average sales price has been lower than the year before since March 2012!

The median price fell 1.2%, year-over-year. That’s the smallest gain since December 2011. This is the first time the median sales price has been lower than the year before since December 2011!

Sales prices for condos were up both month-over-month and year-over-year. The median price was up 7.4% over last December, and the average sales price was up 5.7%. Compared to November, the median sales price rose 1.6% and the average sale prices rose 0.2%.

The sales price to list price ratio remains in triple digits: 101.8% for homes and 100.3% for condos. The ratio for condos is the lowest it has been since May 2012.

Home sales fell 21.6% year-over-year. Sales were down 24.6% from November. For the year, home sales were off 1.6%.

Condo sales were down 17.5% from last December, and, they were down 18.9% from October. For the year, condo sales were down 7%.

Homes are selling in thirty-five days from being listed to going under contract. Condos are taking thirty-two days.

Momentum Statistics

Sales momentum…
for single-family homes fell 1.1 points to –1.9.

Pricing momentum…
for single-family homes was down 0.6 of a point to +9.5.

Our momentum statistics are based on 12-month moving averages to eliminate monthly and seasonal variations.

This is an extraordinarily tough market for buyers. It's important to be calm and realistic. If you don't know what to do or where to begin, give me a call and let's discuss your situation and your options.

In the chart below…

the blue area shows momentum for home sales while the red line shows momentum for pending sales of single-family, re-sale homes. The purple line shows momentum for the median price.

This is an extraordinarily tough market for buyers. It's important to be calm and realistic. If you don't know what to do or where to begin, give me a call and let's discuss your situation and your options.

 

Alameda County Days on Market

Alameda County Days on Market

The real estate market is very hard to generalize. It is a market made up of many micro markets. For complete information on a particular neighborhood or property, call me.

If I can help you devise a strategy, call or click the buying or selling link in the menu to the left.

Monthly Statistics

Complete monthly sales statistics for the Alameda County are below. Monthly graphs are available for each city in the county.

December Sales Statistics
(Single-family Homes)
  Prices Unit     Change from last year Change from last month
Area Median Average Sales DOM SP/LP Median Average Sales Median Average Sales
County $849,500 $944,087 618 35 101.8% -1.2% -1.5% -21.6% -5.6% -6.1% -24.8%
Alameda $970,000 $1,040,950 34 25 105.0% -3.2% -0.8% 6.3% -2.0% -3.7% 0.0%
Albany $962,500 $962,500 4 21 120.7% -19.8% -20.7% -20.0% 2.7% -14.4% -63.6%
Berkeley $1,340,000 $1,366,186 35 37 102.8% 15.5% 0.3% -16.7% 7.2% 3.4% -37.5%
Castro Valley $792,500 $819,487 22 34 99.6% -6.5% -7.0% -35.3% -11.9% -9.4% -24.1%
Dublin $970,000 $975,430 20 19 100.3% -3.0% -6.8% -20.0% -11.8% -9.0% -31.0%
Fremont $1,120,000 $1,181,051 69 37 99.7% -3.7% -2.8% -28.9% -3.0% -3.8% -28.1%
Hayward $716,000 $752,325 85 37 100.1% 7.2% 7.1% -19.8% 5.1% -1.7% 3.7%
Livermore $808,000 $910,112 73 40 99.3% 1.7% 1.1% -1.4% 3.6% -1.8% -8.8%
Newark $921,500 $971,886 22 27 95.0% -0.3% 2.3% -31.3% 9.1% 10.1% -15.4%
Oakland $702,500 $845,559 136 33 108.5% -1.1% 4.2% -30.6% -14.3% -11.1% -37.6%
Piedmont $1,752,000 $2,305,750 4 71 104.5% -31.8% -9.5% -50.0% -6.6% 9.9% -42.9%
Pleasanton $1,120,000 $1,276,177 31 39 97.9% 1.8% -2.0% -31.1% -5.6% -1.2% -40.4%
San Leandro $651,000 $673,929 42 31 100.0% -1.7% -1.8% 20.0% -2.8% -1.8% -20.8%
San Lorenzo $620,000 $587,571 14 31 100.0% 0.0% -9.7% -12.5% -5.9% -9.9% -22.2%
Union City $815,000 $844,458 24 41 98.9% -10.4% -12.0% -17.2% -15.3% -15.7% -20.0%

 

December Sales Statistics
(Condos/Town Homes)
  Prices Unit     Change from last year Change from last month
  Median Average Sales DOM SP/LP Median Average Sales Median Average Sales
County $620,000 $637,327 193 32 100.3% 7.4% 5.7% -17.5% 0.2% 1.6% -18.9%
Alameda $732,500 $775,929 14 39 99.1% 42.8% 32.4% 0.0% 18.1% 8.5% 27.3%
Albany $581,400 $561,950 4 53 102.3% 3.8% 0.3% 300.0% 3.3% 0.7% 0.0%
Berkeley $837,500 $837,500 2 36 109.0% 23.5% 19.8% -60.0% 10.3% 18.8% -81.8%
Castro Valley $680,000 $628,333 3 21 97.2% 19.3% 9.8% 0.0% 14.6% 18.1% -40.0%
Dublin $689,000 $703,902 19 26 100.3% 7.2% 6.7% 18.8% -3.7% -5.9% -5.0%
Emeryville $555,000 $509,158 12 40 101.5% 6.7% -10.3% 0.0% 8.3% 16.4% 9.1%
Fremont $715,000 $731,630 34 32 99.6% 13.5% 10.0% -20.9% -7.0% -6.5% 36.0%
Hayward $470,000 $504,833 21 32 102.1% 5.5% 5.4% -4.5% 3.0% 4.4% -27.6%
Livermore $535,000 $512,800 5 16 100.3% -16.4% -14.0% -70.6% -18.5% -15.1% -80.0%
Newark $715,000 $716,580 10 29 94.4% 39.5% 30.6% 150.0% 12.4% 19.2% -9.1%
Oakland $580,000 $613,284 55 31 101.3% -3.3% -2.5% -1.8% -13.0% -7.2% 12.2%
Pleasanton $800,000 $753,000 5 11 101.0% 45.6% 24.5% -58.3% 18.2% 25.5% -58.3%
San Leandro $420,000 $455,000 7 26 100.0% -19.3% -12.2% -12.5% -3.3% -8.7% -41.7%
Union City $481,000 $481,000 2 80 98.3% -7.5% -7.2% -75.0% -6.9% -9.2% -84.6%

Volatile Markets, Softer Rates To Start 2019

November 30, 2018 -- It's no secret that home sales have lacked traction for a good number of months now. Even with a modest 1.4% rise in existing home sales in October, the truth is that they still remain more than 5% below the same period last year. This week, the National Association of Realtors noted that their Pending Home Sales Index for October fell by 2.6%, making it now 10 consecutive months where pending sales were lower when compared to year-ago readings. The PSHI is based on signed contract to buy; home purchase transaction commonly take 45-60 days to complete, and so are a harbinger for at least a part the expected trend for existing home sales for November and December. Those sales figures won't come for about 4 and 8 weeks, respectively.

Although it remains at a robust level, we learned last week that enthusiasm among homebuilders had dropped sharply in November amid a lackluster and challenging construction climate. This week we learned the reason for the souring demeanor: Fewer folks are buying the homes they are building.

Sales of new homes slumped by 8.9% in October, continuing a downtrend that began after an expansion peak for sales of 712,000 (annualized) units last November. A year on, and the present rate of sale has slid all the way to 544,000 annual units, some 12% below the same period last year. There was a bit of a bright spot in an upward revision for September sales (from 552K to 597K) but very little to be excited about in the current climate. With the slump in sales, supplies of unsold homes swelled to 7.4 months, a level rather above optimal stockpiles of perhaps 6 months, and one that will likely put a damper on new construction trends for a while. The 336,000 built-and-ready to sell units available is the highest number of the economic expansion to date.

Moving the needle higher for new home sales may be difficult, at least for a time. Of late, somewhat more existing home inventory has become available and so competes against more expensive new stock; as well, it is likely difficult to build homes in the markets that most need additional new inventory as tracts of open land are scarce. Other headwinds such as firming mortgage rates don't help either, and with the homebuying season giving way to the holiday season, it may be spring before we see much by way of improvement.

With Black Friday behind us and the normally-quiet-for-housing holiday season kicking in, it doesn't seem likely that we'll see home sales get much of a lift anytime soon. Mortgage rates have backed off from recent peak levels by about an eighth of a percentage point which may help a bit, and with the influential 10-year Treasury holding a yield of just about 3% late Friday and other indicators also softening, we think there's a good chance of a 3-4 basis point decline in the average 30-year FRM reported by Freddie Mac come next Thursday, even with the first-week-of-the-month slew of top-tier economic data hitting the markets.