Statistical Tables | | Turning The Page

Trends at a Glance
(Single-family Homes)
  Dec 20 Nov 20 Dec 19
Average Price: $966,616 $1,016,594 $840,120
Median Price: $760,000 $800,000 $665,000
Home Sales: 1,144 1,120 769
DOM: 18 16 39
SP/LP Ratio: 103.3% 103.5% 99.9%
(Condos/Townhomes)
  Dec 20 Nov 20 Dec 19
Average Price: $563,602 $574,981 $528,366
Median Price: $525,750 $520,500 $450,000
Condo Sales: 270 282 213
DOM: 29 34 46
SP/LP Ratio: 100.7% 100.8% 99.5%

Home Sales & Price End Year on an Up Note

The median sales price for single-family, re-sale homes was up 14.3% compared to last December, but, it was down 5% from November.

The average sales price rose 15.1% year-over-year. It fell 4.9% from November.

The sales price to list price ratio for homes fell to 103.3% from 103.5%.

Sales of single-family, re-sale homes rose 2.1% from November. They were up 48.8% year-over-year. There were 1,144 homes sold last month. The average monthly sales since 2005 is 907.

For the year, home sales were up 4.7%.

Days on market, or how long it takes to go from being listed to being under contract, for homes rose two days to eighteen days.

The median sales price for condos was up 1% from November, and, it was up 16.8% year-over-year. The average price was down 2% from November, but, it was up 6.7% year-over-year.

Condo sales were down 4.3% from November, but, they were up 26.8% year-over-year. There were 270 condo sales last month.

The sales price to list price ratio for condos went from 100.8% to 100.7%.

Days on market, or how long it takes to go from being listed to being under contract, rose from thirty-four days to twenty-nine days for condos.

Momentum Statistics

Sales momentum…

for single-family homes rose 2.5 points to +4.5.

Pricing momentum…

for single-family homes rose 0.2 of a point to +9.9.

Our momentum statistics are based on 12-month moving averages to eliminate monthly and seasonal variations.

We calculate…

momentum by using a 12-month moving average to eliminate seasonality. By comparing this year's 12-month moving average to last year's, we get a percentage showing market momentum.  

In the chart below…

the blue area shows momentum for home sales while the red line shows momentum for pending sales of single-family, re-sale homes. The purple line shows momentum for the average price.

As you can see, pricing momentum has an inverse relationship to sales momentum.

Remember, the real estate market is a matter of neighborhoods and houses. No two are the same. For complete information on a particular neighborhood or property, call me.

P.S. The FHA requires all condo projects to be re-certified before they will make a loan. To find out if the condo project you're interested in is eligible, go here: https://entp.hud.gov/idapp/html/condlook.cfm.

The real estate market is very hard to generalize. It is a market made up of many micro markets. For complete information on a particular neighborhood or property, call me.

If I can help you devise a strategy, call or click the buying or selling link in the menu to the left.

Monthly Statistics

Complete monthly sales statistics for Contra Costa County are below. Monthly graphs are available for each city in the county.

December Sales Statistics
(Single-family Homes)
  Prices Units     Change from last year Change from last month
  Median Average Sold DOM SP/LP Median Average Sold Median Average Sold
County $760,000 $966,616 1,144 18 103.3% 14.3% 15.1% 48.8% -5.0% -4.9% 2.1%
Alamo $2,000,000 $2,107,638 30 24 101.5% 10.0% -4.1% 200.0% 8.1% 6.6% 20.0%
Antioch $550,000 $558,817 136 16 103.7% 15.8% 17.9% 56.3% 3.8% 2.5% 32.0%
Bay Point $465,000 $509,067 15 21 103.6% 1.6% 7.3% -6.3% -9.7% -7.4% 66.7%
Blackhawk $1,715,000 $1,825,727 11 38 97.8% 5.9% 20.4% 10.0% 22.3% 30.8% 83.3%
Brentwood $702,500 $769,898 110 19 101.1% 11.5% 20.3% 42.9% 4.1% 10.7% -3.5%
Clayton $925,000 $940,935 23 11 103.4% -5.5% -6.4% 91.7% 2.2% 3.6% 27.8%
Concord $720,000 $749,325 108 14 103.7% 9.9% 9.5% 33.3% 1.7% 0.7% -11.5%
Danville $1,515,500 $1,640,465 86 17 101.5% 11.2% 14.0% 22.9% -6.4% -6.2% -20.4%
Discovery Bay $722,500 $766,888 42 22 99.2% 27.3% 25.5% 90.9% 5.5% 2.1% 7.7%
El Cerrito $1,267,500 $1,213,938 16 11 124.5% 11.3% 11.3% -11.1% 5.1% 6.7% 6.7%
El Sobrante $590,000 $633,933 15 21 105.3% 31.1% 33.9% 400.0% -13.2% -3.5% 0.0%
Hercules $800,000 $775,154 13 16 104.9% 13.1% 10.9% -7.1% 2.2% -4.7% -7.1%
Kensington $1,415,000 $1,418,200 10 9 115.0% 39.6% 39.6% 100.0% 8.3% 8.3% 42.9%
Lafayette $1,790,000 $2,016,733 37 25 104.4% 19.8% 21.6% 68.2% -9.5% 3.3% 5.7%
Martinez $710,000 $811,034 57 19 102.8% 15.4% 23.2% 171.4% -1.4% 7.4% 26.7%
Moraga $1,580,000 $1,585,625 16 13 104.4% 19.2% 20.8% 128.6% 13.5% 1.7% -27.3%
Oakley $590,000 $597,861 49 10 103.8% 17.2% 19.8% 28.9% 0.9% 0.6% 11.4%
Orinda $1,625,000 $1,791,060 25 30 99.6% -3.8% 1.0% 38.9% -7.1% -7.4% -39.0%
Pinole $725,750 $737,663 14 15 105.0% 24.6% 25.2% -36.4% 1.5% 8.3% -17.6%
Pittsburg $520,000 $549,530 57 18 103.5% 15.6% 15.3% 54.1% 2.9% 4.1% 29.5%
Pleasant Hill $1,000,000 $1,019,734 31 18 103.3% 25.7% 22.7% 72.2% 0.0% 2.4% -27.9%
Richmond $620,000 $640,634 75 27 104.6% 21.6% 12.0% 47.1% 8.8% 4.8% 31.6%
Rodeo $580,000 $582,041 14 19 107.4% n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
San Ramon $1,300,393 $1,321,932 68 8 105.6% 10.7% 11.1% 51.1% 2.8% -2.6% -10.5%
Walnut Creek $1,250,000 $1,291,039 65 17 102.8% 13.6% 1.9% 58.5% -2.0% -6.7% 0.0%

December Sales Statistics
(Condos/Townhomes)
  Prices Units     Change from last year Change from last month
  Median Average Sold DOM SP/LP Median Average Sold Median Average Sold
County $525,750 $563,602 270 29 100.7% 1.0% -2.0% 26.8% 1.0% -2.0% -4.3%
Antioch $292,500 $313,346 14 18 102.0% 3.7% 17.5% 40.0% 3.7% 17.5% 40.0%
Concord $398,750 $397,673 26 23 101.0% 8.5% 7.7% 18.2% 8.5% 7.7% -35.0%
Danville $870,000 $837,804 23 11 101.5% -0.3% 3.4% 283.3% -0.3% 3.4% 27.8%
Hercules $440,000 $451,045 11 20 104.1% 12.8% 4.9% 37.5% 12.8% 4.9% -8.3%
Martinez $457,500 $448,500 12 19 101.4% -7.9% -7.9% 0.0% -7.9% -7.9% 33.3%
Moraga $822,500 $812,250 8 33 99.8% 5.3% 3.6% 100.0% 5.3% 3.6% 33.3%
Pleasant Hill $545,000 $540,656 9 26 100.0% -7.6% -4.0% 12.5% -7.6% -4.0% -52.6%
Richmond $467,000 $493,453 20 37 99.0% -2.7% -3.2% 17.6% -2.7% -3.2% 11.1%
San Pablo $366,500 $374,125 8 27 104.2% 32.8% 36.7% 166.7% 32.8% 36.7% 100.0%
San Ramon $572,500 $621,281 37 25 101.1% -17.6% -11.7% 94.7% -17.6% -11.7% 27.6%
Walnut Creek $558,000 $579,911 77 39 100.0% -11.4% -12.4% -6.1% -11.4% -12.4% -9.4%

Turning The Page

December 31, 2020 -- A year ago, when the calendar first turned to 2020, it's a fair bet that no one could see what was coming, or know how profoundly one little germ could change our lives. The coronavirus outbreak, epidemic and then pandemic upended everything across the globe, and even as we strive for a semblance of normalcy, it's not done yet just yet. You'll be able to witness the latest effects this evening, as normally-packed live celebrations of the change of year in cities around the world will be thinner, remotely generated and socially-distanced. "On January 1, 2021, for the first time every, hindsight will actually be 2020", according to a popular internet meme, and there's little doubt that many people will be happy to see it go.

With one country after another closing, and uncertainty and risks skyrocketing, investors got spooked and came to a point of selling everything to move to cash; interest rates spiked, financial markets became unhinged and central banks across the world moved into emergency positions, slashing rates, buying bonds and opening up new lending and market-support facilities, moving to liquefy every market and be the buyer of last resort for a range of assets if need be. The market panic was quelled, and a depression likely averted. Lockdowns ensured that the economies of many countries would fall into record-setting recession for a time, only to quickly (if partially) emerge.

As they did, unprecedented opportunities arose for homeowners. For those in difficult straits, and with the experience of at least some lessons learned in the last housing bust, a nearly instant forbearance program for homeowners was released, and without even the burden of proof of hardship. Millions signed up; a core of the most troubled homeowners (numbering about 2.8 million) yet remain in forbearance. For others who experienced no payment troubles, opportunities to refinance at record low rates -- multiple times -- appeared. Freddie Mac's formal all-time low for a conforming 30-year (3.31%) FRM was touched in mid-April, broken by the end of the of the month a new record low was set in 17 weeks since then, falling to as low 2.66% near the end of the year.

Potential homebuyers took notice, too. The year began with an early start on the spring homebuying season with a solid winter showing for sales, but that came to a relative standstill in March through May, only to revive with vigor and then some as the economy re-opened through the summer. The delayed action of the spring market was joined by additional demand from second home buyers looking to escape to remote locations, away from virus and strife, and by buyers who could now work remotely and so no longer felt constricted by proximity to center-city workspaces. With competition for houses fierce and existing home prices rising sharply, it's also likely that some demand has been "advanced" from the coming year in order to grab a home before costs increased further.

With the existing home market tight and expensive, and possibly with commuting to work far less of a concern, sales of new homes also enjoyed a strong period during the mid-part of 2020, but sales are settling back to a very solid (if less frenetic) trend as the year turns. Before a pandemic dip last spring, sales of new homes had been in a 10-year uptrend, and seem poised to return to that kind of steady, solid (if unspectacular) improvement now that the pandemic distortion in sales has cycled through.

Existing home sales have started to cool a bit from heady annualized levels too, although that's to be expected as the winter months kick in. The spring-bumped-into-summer housing season has passed, and while there is still plenty of demand there is little supply to be had, and even fewer homes are put up for sale once the onset of the extended holiday (and then winter) season begins. The National Association of Realtors Pending Home Sales Index contracted again in November, declining by 2.6%, a third consecutive decline. Compared to a year ago, though, contract signings are still some 16.4% higher, and if we weigh this change against sales levels last December/January, it looks like this will translate into a 6.25 million (or so) annualized rate of sale. October's 6.86 million (annual) was the recent peak, and sales are likely to continue to cool somewhat until the next spring cycle kicks up again.