Statistical Tables | | Airstruck Rates

Trends at a Glance
(Single-family Homes)
  Jan 20 Dec 19 Jan 19
Average Price: $810,776 $840,120 $743,600
Median Price: $615,000 $665,000 $585,000
Home Sales: 531 769 499
DOM: 42 39 45
SP/LP Ratio: 99.7% 99.9% 99.0%
(Condos/Townhomes)
  Jan 20 Dec 19 Jan 19
Average Price: $554,126 $528,366 $462,101
Median Price: $440,000 $450,000 $425,000
Home Sales: 145 213 135
DOM: 43 46 41
SP/LP Ratio: 99.5% 99.5% 99.2%

Home Prices & Sales Rise Year-Over-Year

The average sales price for single-family, re-sale homes rose 9% last month, year-over-year. It fell 3.5% from December.

The median sales price rose 5.1% compared to last January, but, it was down 7.5% from December.

The sales price to list price ratio for homes dropped to 99.7% from 99.9%.

Sales of single-family, re-sale homes were up, year-over-year, by 6.4%. They were down 30.9% from December. That is typical for December/January. There were 531 homes sold last month.

Days on market, or how long it takes to go from being listed to being under contract, rose three days for homes to forty-two days.

The median sales price for condos was down 2.2% from December, but, it was up 3.5% year-over-year. The average price was up 4.9% from December, and, it was up 19.9% year-over-year.

Condo sales were up 7.4% year-over-year. There were 145 condo sales last month.

The sales price to list price ratio for condos stayed under 100% for the third month in a row. It was 99.5%.

Days on market, or how long it takes to go from being listed to being under contract, dropped from forty-six days to forty-three days for condos.

Momentum Statistics

SSales momentum…

for single-family homes rose 1.2 points to –1.0.

Pricing momentum…

for single-family homes gained 0.1 of a point to +1.9.

Our momentum statistics are based on 12-month moving averages to eliminate monthly and seasonal variations.

We calculate…

momentum by using a 12-month moving average to eliminate seasonality. By comparing this year's 12-month moving average to last year's, we get a percentage showing market momentum.  

In the chart below…

the blue area shows momentum for home sales while the red line shows momentum for pending sales of single-family, re-sale homes. The purple line shows momentum for the average price.

As you can see, pricing momentum has an inverse relationship to sales momentum.

Remember, the real estate market is a matter of neighborhoods and houses. No two are the same. For complete information on a particular neighborhood or property, call me.

P.S. The FHA requires all condo projects to be re-certified before they will make a loan. To find out if the condo project you're interested in is eligible, go here: https://entp.hud.gov/idapp/html/condlook.cfm.

The real estate market is very hard to generalize. It is a market made up of many micro markets. For complete information on a particular neighborhood or property, call me.

If I can help you devise a strategy, call or click the buying or selling link in the menu to the left.

Monthly Statistics

Complete monthly sales statistics for Contra Costa County are below. Monthly graphs are available for each city in the county.

January Sales Statistics
(Single-family Homes)
  Prices Units     Change from last year Change from last month
  Median Average Sold DOM SP/LP Median Average Sold Median Average Sold
County $615,000 $810,776 531 42 99.7% 5.1% 9.0% 6.4% -7.5% -3.5% -30.9%
Alamo $2,050,000 $2,431,714 7 98 97.7% 35.6% 34.1% -22.2% 12.8% 10.6% -30.0%
Antioch $463,500 $471,336 72 36 99.5% 3.2% 5.2% -5.3% -2.4% -0.5% -17.2%
Bay Point $465,000 $505,606 8 37 100.2% 16.3% 6.5% -11.1% 1.6% 6.6% -50.0%
Blackhawk $1,715,000 $1,825,727 11 38 97.8% 5.9% 20.4% 10.0% 22.3% 30.8% 83.3%
Brentwood $613,000 $656,382 45 61 98.8% -1.7% 7.9% -2.2% -2.7% 2.5% -41.6%
Clayton $875,000 $960,571 7 42 101.3% 34.6% 28.2% -36.4% -10.6% -4.4% -41.7%
Concord $615,000 $643,448 55 40 102.0% 2.8% 3.8% 14.6% -6.1% -6.0% -32.1%
Danville $1,312,500 $1,436,422 32 48 98.2% 1.0% 7.1% 10.3% -3.7% -0.2% -54.3%
Discovery Bay $600,000 $692,667 21 86 96.5% -3.1% 10.4% 110.0% 5.7% 13.4% -4.5%
El Cerrito $885,000 $919,511 9 33 104.6% -6.2% -6.2% 80.0% -15.7% -50.0% -50.0%
El Sobrante $632,500 $614,411 8 30 100.6% 4.8% -0.2% 0.0% 40.6% 29.8% 166.7%
Hercules $650,000 $658,760 5 30 99.3% 2.5% -1.6% -44.4% -8.1% -5.7% -64.3%
Kensington $0 $0 0 0 0.0% n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
Lafayette $1,800,000 $1,935,025 9 48 99.5% -11.0% -12.4% 12.5% 20.5% 16.7% -59.1%
Martinez $730,500 $832,056 16 27 99.3% 28.2% 43.1% -15.8% 18.8% 26.4% -23.8%
Moraga $1,544,000 $1,609,778 9 40 99.1% 40.9% 46.9% 350.0% 16.5% 22.7% 28.6%
Oakley $522,500 $558,333 34 39 99.5% 7.0% 11.3% 21.4% 3.8% 11.9% -10.5%
Orinda $1,393,500 $1,731,750 12 53 98.2% -5.3% 19.4% 20.0% -17.5% -2.4% -33.3%
Pinole $599,000 $552,000 5 23 98.6% 5.1% -3.7% -37.5% 2.8% -6.3% -77.3%
Pittsburg $460,000 $475,566 35 33 100.4% 1.1% 4.1% -2.8% 2.2% -0.2% -5.4%
Pleasant Hill $850,000 $791,000 9 73 99.5% 6.3% 1.0% -30.8% 6.8% -4.8% -50.0%
Richmond $552,444 $578,498 42 30 104.5% 12.2% 16.1% 23.5% 8.3% 1.1% -17.6%
Rodeo $510,000 $509,333 6 23 99.8% -18.4% -17.7% 50.0% -9.7% -8.0% -14.3%
San Ramon $1,065,000 $1,242,597 29 35 99.9% -11.3% 4.2% -12.1% -9.4% 4.5% -35.6%
Walnut Creek $1,133,750 $1,224,100 28 33 101.0% 5.5% 3.8% 16.7% 3.1% -3.4% -31.7%

January Sales Statistics
(Condos/Townhomes)
  Prices Units     Change from last year Change from last month
  Median Average Sold DOM SP/LP Median Average Sold Median Average Sold
County $440,000 $554,126 145 43 99.5% -2.2% 4.9% 7.4% -2.2% 4.9% -31.9%
Antioch $235,000 $250,773 11 50 97.8% -13.2% -4.3% 57.1% -13.2% -4.3% 10.0%
Concord $329,750 $335,898 22 48 99.7% -2.9% -5.0% -8.3% -2.9% -5.0% 0.0%
Danville $640,000 $674,286 7 34 97.9% -15.0% -12.9% 0.0% -15.0% -12.9% 16.7%
Hercules $335,000 $375,200 5 41 97.6% -23.0% -12.4% 25.0% -23.0% -12.4% -37.5%
Martinez $383,500 $387,950 4 33 97.7% 0.0% -2.9% 100.0% 0.0% -2.9% -66.7%
Moraga $586,586 $586,586 1 11 101.1% 10.9% -1.0% -50.0% 10.9% -1.0% -75.0%
Pleasant Hill $438,500 $438,500 2 48 97.6% -17.3% -17.4% -75.0% -17.3% -17.4% -75.0%
Richmond $425,000 $426,996 12 34 100.9% 3.9% 2.5% 9.1% 3.9% 2.5% -29.4%
San Pablo $310,000 $318,333 3 66 101.3% -18.4% -20.4% 50.0% -18.4% -20.4% 0.0%
San Ramon $607,500 $701,222 18 50 98.7% 11.5% 20.5% 63.6% 11.5% 20.5% -5.3%
Walnut Creek $600,000 $655,946 41 40 99.9% -0.1% 0.5% 0.0% -0.1% 0.5% -50.0%

Virus Fears Drive Rates Down

Jan. 31, 2020 -- Although the spreading coronavirus probably doesn't meet the classic definition of a pandemic just yet, that's less the case for investor psyches, where concerns about the impacts of the spreading disease have caused widespread selloffs of riskier assets such as equities this week. In turn, those funds have been flowing strongly into safe-haven investments such as Treasury and other sovereign bonds (and to a lesser degree, Mortgage-Backed Securities), driving yields and mortgage rates down in kind.

It's still too early to know the full impact, but it seems likely that there will be at least some economic slowing in some economies around the globe, but where and how much have yet to play out. While unfortunate in many ways on a broad scale -- not the least of which for those who have been or will be directly impacted -- it is fortunate for American mortgage shoppers, who are seeing rates again approaching multi-year lows. This week's average rate for a conforming 30-year FRM is only 20 basis points above (what were then) 60+ year lows achieved back in 2012, and although rates may not fall that far, the economic conditions in which they are occurring (a record-long expansion, near-full employment, rising incomes) means that there is a chance that more folks will be in a position to take advantage of them.

Or at least they would, if interest rates hadn't been for the most part within about a percentage point of these rate for the past few years. Incrementally lower rates should mean incremental increases in refinance activity, and may, but there have been an awful lot of refinances at rates near enough to today's levels over that time as to have tempered any pent-up demand. Still, we should see a boost in activity, even above the 7.5% increase in applications for refinance mortgages reported by the Mortgage Bankers Association of America in the week ending January 24... and rates have moved lower this week again.

Can lower rates help create more home sales? Yes... but since there is a dearth of homes available to buy on the market (inventory levels of existing homes were at about a 20-year low in December, according to the National Association of Realtors) so a ramp up in sales seems unlikely. In fact, the Realtors reported that their Pending Home Sales Index dropped by 4.9% in December, with the decline attributed to a lack of homes for sale and a spike in home prices toward the end of 2019 that has again crimped affordability.

Some potential borrowers may look to new construction instead, where supply is less of an issue, but prices tend to be higher to start with and homes may be being built in places that are less optimal, such as away from transportation options or a long distance to a center-city job. Sales of new homes eased a little in December, falling by 0.4% to 694,000 (annualized) units sold. Unlike existing homes, there is a 5.7 month supply of newly-constructed units available (a five-month high, and close to optimal), and median prices of new homes sold have waxed and waned from month to month but are just 0.5% higher this December than they were last December. As such, the relative improvement in affordability produced by lower mortgage rates is largely preserved and may make the stretch to a new home possible for somewhat more potential homebuyers. As with refinances, applications for purchase-money mortgages rose last week, gaining 5.3%.

A large selloff in major stock indices here on Friday will no doubt see overseas market start the next trading week on a sour note, and the downward pressure on rates will continue. Despite a largely positive economic climate, the effects of the spreading pandemic has already blown out the bottom of out most recent Two-Month Forecast, and that seems like a trend that will continue next week. We think by the time Freddie Mac reports next Thursday morning that another handful of basis points will be shaved off the average offered rate for a conforming 30-year fixed-rate mortgage, putting us closer to historic lows again. A couple of basis point fall would put us on full par with last September; a 4 to 9 basis point decline drops us back October 2016 levels... 11 sees us at July 16... but a dozen or more and we're back at 7-year lows.