Statistical Tables | | Panic. Pandemic. "Panicdemic?"

Trends at a Glance
(Single-family Homes)
  Feb 20 Jan 20 Feb 19
Average Price: $791,862 $810,776 $812,468
Median Price: $629,000 $615,000 $639,000
Home Sales: 557 531 525
DOM: 32 42 38
SP/LP Ratio: 100.4% 99.7% 100.4%
(Condos/Townhomes)
  Feb 20 Jan 20 Feb 19
Average Price: $564,769 $554,126 $499,087
Median Price: $485,000 $440,000 $440,000
Home Sales: 193 145 176
DOM: 34 43 31
SP/LP Ratio: 100.2% 99.5% 100.0%

Home Sales Up, Prices Down

The average sales price for single-family, re-sale homes dropped 2.5% last month, year-over-year. It fell 2.3% from January.

The median sales price dropped 1.6% compared to last February, but, it was up 2.3% from January.

The sales price to list price ratio for homes rose to 100.4% from 99.7%.

Sales of single-family, re-sale homes were up, year-over-year, by 6.1%. They were up 4.9% from January. There were 557 homes sold last month.

Days on market, or how long it takes to go from being listed to being under contract, fell ten days for homes to thirty-two days.

The median sales price for condos was up 10.2% from January, and, it was up 10.2% year-over-year. The average price was up 1.9% from January, and, it was up 13.2% year-over-year.

Condo sales were up 9.7% year-over-year. There were 193 condo sales last month.

The sales price to list price ratio for condos went back over 100%. It was 100.2%.

Days on market, or how long it takes to go from being listed to being under contract, dropped from forty-three days to thirty-four days for condos.

Momentum Statistics

Sales momentum…

for single-family homes rose 0.9 of a point to –0.1.

Pricing momentum…

for single-family homes fell 0.6 of a point to +1.3.

Our momentum statistics are based on 12-month moving averages to eliminate monthly and seasonal variations.

We calculate…

momentum by using a 12-month moving average to eliminate seasonality. By comparing this year's 12-month moving average to last year's, we get a percentage showing market momentum.  

In the chart below…

the blue area shows momentum for home sales while the red line shows momentum for pending sales of single-family, re-sale homes. The purple line shows momentum for the average price.

As you can see, pricing momentum has an inverse relationship to sales momentum.

Remember, the real estate market is a matter of neighborhoods and houses. No two are the same. For complete information on a particular neighborhood or property, call me.

P.S. The FHA requires all condo projects to be re-certified before they will make a loan. To find out if the condo project you're interested in is eligible, go here: https://entp.hud.gov/idapp/html/condlook.cfm.

The real estate market is very hard to generalize. It is a market made up of many micro markets. For complete information on a particular neighborhood or property, call me.

If I can help you devise a strategy, call or click the buying or selling link in the menu to the left.

Monthly Statistics

Complete monthly sales statistics for Contra Costa County are below. Monthly graphs are available for each city in the county.

February Sales Statistics
(Single-family Homes)
  Prices Units     Change from last year Change from last month
  Median Average Sold DOM SP/LP Median Average Sold Median Average Sold
County $629,000 $791,862 557 32 100.4% -1.6% -2.5% 6.1% 2.3% -2.3% 4.9%
Alamo $1,745,000 $1,948,818 11 33 96.8% 8.6% 5.3% -8.3% -14.9% -19.9% 57.1%
Antioch $462,500 $459,093 78 41 100.9% 2.8% 0.7% 27.9% -0.2% -2.6% 8.3%
Bay Point $400,000 $420,542 12 27 101.9% -5.9% -3.4% 71.4% -14.0% -16.8% 50.0%
Blackhawk $1,715,000 $1,825,727 11 38 97.8% 5.9% 20.4% 10.0% 22.3% 30.8% 83.3%
Brentwood $605,250 $634,749 64 39 98.6% -4.5% 3.3% 45.5% -1.3% -3.3% 42.2%
Clayton $940,000 $946,556 9 43 100.3% 18.2% 19.2% 28.6% 7.4% -1.5% 28.6%
Concord $640,000 $672,710 57 32 95.2% 5.0% 10.3% -8.1% 4.1% 4.5% 3.6%
Danville $1,349,000 $1,467,850 37 17 99.5% -2.2% 2.3% -11.9% 2.8% 2.2% 15.6%
Discovery Bay $565,000 $561,538 13 53 97.8% -5.0% -19.2% -40.9% -5.8% -18.9% -38.1%
El Cerrito $930,000 $1,004,857 7 17 112.7% 9.6% 9.6% -30.0% 9.3% -22.2% -22.2%
El Sobrante $492,500 $468,333 6 29 102.1% 4.2% -0.9% 200.0% -22.1% -23.8% -25.0%
Hercules $736,000 $747,976 11 25 100.5% 12.4% 9.3% 120.0% 13.2% 13.5% 120.0%
Kensington $755,000 $755,000 1 7 100.8% -51.7% -51.7% -50.0% n/a n/a n/a
Lafayette $1,660,000 $1,941,470 9 3 104.2% -2.6% -4.0% -18.2% -7.8% 0.3% 0.0%
Martinez $662,000 $656,318 22 23 102.8% 10.3% 8.9% 37.5% -9.4% -21.1% 37.5%
Moraga $1,360,000 $1,465,167 9 50 99.5% -0.2% -0.1% 50.0% -11.9% -9.0% 0.0%
Oakley $501,440 $535,092 30 38 100.5% 2.1% 4.7% 36.4% -4.0% -4.2% -11.8%
Orinda $1,480,000 $1,627,375 11 62 99.0% -5.4% -3.9% -15.4% 6.2% -6.0% -8.3%
Pinole $565,000 $572,400 10 31 101.5% -13.7% -11.7% 66.7% -5.7% 3.7% 100.0%
Pittsburg $485,000 $498,229 22 23 102.3% 14.1% 13.8% -35.3% 5.4% 4.8% -37.1%
Pleasant Hill $778,000 $828,333 9 17 103.3% -4.0% -2.6% -52.6% -8.5% 4.7% 0.0%
Richmond $540,000 $571,414 49 35 108.0% 6.5% 0.7% 11.4% -2.3% -1.2% 16.7%
Rodeo $557,500 $537,250 8 40 102.0% 11.6% 7.6% 700.0% 9.3% 5.5% 33.3%
San Ramon $1,170,000 $1,168,212 27 23 99.7% 1.5% -1.9% -15.6% 9.9% -6.0% -6.9%
Walnut Creek $1,135,000 $1,173,839 31 16 101.2% 2.9% 0.3% 29.2% 0.1% -4.1% 10.7%

February Sales Statistics
(Condos/Townhomes)
  Prices Units     Change from last year Change from last month
  Median Average Sold DOM SP/LP Median Average Sold Median Average Sold
County $485,000 $564,769 193 34 100.2% 10.2% 1.9% 9.7% 10.2% 1.9% 33.1%
Antioch $265,950 $259,233 6 42 98.1% 13.2% 3.4% -66.7% 13.2% 3.4% -45.5%
Concord $370,000 $356,530 17 15 101.1% 12.2% 6.1% -15.0% 12.2% 6.1% -22.7%
Danville $759,000 $741,768 11 45 99.6% 18.6% 10.0% 22.2% 18.6% 10.0% 57.1%
Hercules $384,500 $391,300 10 32 100.4% 14.8% 4.3% 150.0% 14.8% 4.3% 100.0%
Martinez $380,000 $387,750 8 17 101.1% -0.9% -0.1% 0.0% -0.9% -0.1% 100.0%
Moraga $775,000 $767,400 5 43 100.9% 32.1% 30.8% 25.0% 32.1% 30.8% 400.0%
Pleasant Hill $517,500 $507,986 8 16 99.8% 18.0% 15.8% -11.1% 18.0% 15.8% 300.0%
Richmond $413,000 $444,264 11 48 100.2% -2.8% 4.0% -21.4% -2.8% 4.0% -8.3%
San Pablo $375,000 $397,500 4 66 100.3% 21.0% 24.9% 0.0% 21.0% 24.9% 33.3%
San Ramon $700,000 $688,426 27 38 100.0% 15.2% -1.8% 28.6% 15.2% -1.8% 50.0%
Walnut Creek $575,000 $614,972 61 33 100.0% -4.2% -6.2% 5.2% -4.2% -6.2% 48.8%

Panic. Pandemic. "Panicdemic?"

Feb. 28, 2020-- It would seem that the only thing that is spreading faster than COVID-19 is the fear of the damage being done to economies across the globe. Even though the spread of the virus has not yet quite been called a pandemic, investors have moved from concern to panic, with major stock indexes moving into "correction" territory in just a few short trading sessions. Of course, some pundits have proffered that a part of the mass exit from stocks might be related to the Democratic party front-runner's potential policies, but the effects of any candidates' platform of course can't be realized until after they have actually won both the nomination and the election.

As such, it's all virus, all the time. The market panic over the possible pandemic left us considering that we need a new word to describe the market's actions: Panicdemic, defined as a widespread fire sale of stocks by investors based purely on the fear of what might come to pass. While imperfect, its as good a portmanteau as any.

Mortgage rates that are likely to creep nearer to "all-time" lows probably won't do much to improve sales of existing homes, where inventories of homes for sale are thin, but may enhance the uptrend in sales of new homes. In January, new home sales rose by 7.9%, a figure plausibly goosed by favorable weather conditions for the month. The 764,000 annual rate of sale was good enough to be a 12-plus year high, and lower mortgage helped provide at least some offset to cover the 13.4% month-to-month increase in the median price of a home sold. With the bump in sales, the number of units on hand relative to current sales slid back to 5.1 months, a little lower than is considered optimal, and there are 323,000 units built and ready to be sold and so this market segment is in healthier shape for potential homebuyers as the spring buying season kicks in. Inventories of existing homes for sale seem likely to be trimmed further if the National Association of Realtors index covering pending home sales pans out -- the January increase of 5.2% comes at a time of already-record-low numbers of homes for sale. Hopefully, it is that new listings are happening but are being snapped up; otherwise there will be even less available for potential homebuyers to pick over.

Applications for purchase-money mortgages declined for a third consecutive week, according to the Mortgage Banks Association of America, falling by 3.4% in the week ending February 14. This time, however, that decline was accompanied by a decline in applications for refinancing, which dropped a full 8% for the period. The combined effect left applications down by 6.4% for the week, but with interest rates steady to perhaps slightly lower at the moment and the end of the month coming up, it's likely that some fence-sitters will jump into the market again next week.

Unless the economic climate begins to worsen or the Fed begins to make rumblings about a growing potential for an interest rate cut, the best interest rates can do is hang about, with perhaps a slow fade at times of worry or individual reports of softer growth here or there. For the most part, the available data from here and elsewhere doesn't suggest that a significant decline (or increase) can be expected anytime really soon, but with the dark cloud of uncertainty regarding the coronavirus hovering over the globe, there still a greater chance of lower than higher rates regardless of how strong the incoming available data might be.

For next week, we think that the week-ending fade for rates this week will likely pull the averaged offered rate for a conforming 30-year FRM down by a couple of basis points at most, possibly enough to eat up the four basis point increase tallied over the last two weeks. We'll see what comes when Freddie Mac reports new data next Thursday morning.