Statistical Tables | | Comparative Calm To Close Summer
| Trends at a Glance | |||
| (Single-family Homes) | |||
| Aug 19 | Jul 19 | Aug 18 | |
| Average Price: | $825,673 | $845,862 | $813,669 |
| Median Price: | $670,000 | $658,500 | $640,000 |
| Home Sales: | 1,033 | 1,036 | 1,077 |
| DOM: | 31 | 26 | 27 |
| SP/LP Ratio: | 100.6% | 100.9% | 100.8% |
| (Condos/Townhomes) | |||
| Aug 19 | Jul 19 | Aug 18 | |
| Average Price: | $539,239 | $538,928 | $533,678 |
| Median Price: | $485,000 | $495,000 | $469,000 |
| Home Sales: | 235 | 265 | 265 |
| DOM: | 31 | 30 | 21 |
| SP/LP Ratio: | 100.3% | 100.4% | 102.0% |
Contrary to what we wrote in March that the plethora of tech IPOs would generate thousands of new millionaires and drive home prices and sales upward, they have, instead, declined steadily.
The reason for the decline is the Chinese have abandoned the market. Sales of real estate to Chinese buyers is down 56% year-over-year. See this article in USA Today: https://tinyurl.com/y5vmrq7f.
Sales of single-family, re-sale homes were down, year-over-year, for the third month in a row. They fell 4.1%.
After being higher than the year before for 33 months in a row, the average sales price for single-family, re-sale homes fell in July. It rebounded in August to gain 1.5%.
The median sales price also rebounded, rising 4.7% from last August.
Condo sales were down 11.3% year-over-year.
The median sales price for condos was down 2.0% from July, but, it was up 3.4% year-over-year. The average price was up 0.1% from July, and, it was up 1.0% year-over-year.
The sales price to list price ratio stayed over 100% for the sixth month in a row for both homes and condos. It was 100.6% for homes and 100.3% for condos.
Days on market, or how long it takes to go from being listed to being under contract, was thirty-one days for both homes condos.
for single-family homes rose 0.5 of a point to –12.3.
for single-family homes rose 0.2 of a point to +2.6.
Our momentum statistics are based on 12-month moving averages to eliminate monthly and seasonal variations.
momentum by using a 12-month moving average to eliminate seasonality. By comparing this year's 12-month moving average to last year's, we get a percentage showing market momentum.
the blue area shows momentum for home sales while the red line shows momentum for pending sales of single-family, re-sale homes. The purple line shows momentum for the average price.
As you can see, pricing momentum has an inverse relationship to sales momentum.
Remember, the real estate market is a matter of neighborhoods and houses. No two are the same. For complete information on a particular neighborhood or property, call me.
P.S. The FHA requires all condo projects to be re-certified before they will make a loan. To find out if the condo project you're interested in is eligible, go here: https://entp.hud.gov/idapp/html/condlook.cfm.
The real estate market is very hard to generalize. It is a market made up of many micro markets. For complete information on a particular neighborhood or property, call me.
If I can help you devise a strategy, call or click the buying or selling link in the menu to the left.
Complete monthly sales statistics for Contra Costa County are below. Monthly graphs are available for each city in the county.
| August Sales Statistics | |||||||||||
| (Single-family Homes) | |||||||||||
| Prices | Units | Change from last year | Change from last month | ||||||||
| Median | Average | Sold | DOM | SP/LP | Median | Average | Sold | Median | Average | Sold | |
| County | $670,000 | $825,673 | 1,033 | 31 | 100.6% | 4.7% | 1.5% | -4.1% | 1.7% | -2.4% | -0.3% |
| Alamo | $1,762,500 | $1,905,668 | 16 | 34 | 98.5% | 6.4% | 3.2% | -27.3% | -7.7% | -4.6% | 6.7% |
| Antioch | $488,500 | $480,261 | 118 | 27 | 100.2% | 7.5% | 3.1% | -14.5% | 2.8% | 0.0% | -4.8% |
| Bay Point | $350,000 | $421,267 | 15 | 20 | 100.8% | -26.2% | -14.5% | -6.3% | -21.8% | -8.8% | -16.7% |
| Blackhawk | $1,715,000 | $1,825,727 | 11 | 38 | 97.8% | 5.9% | 20.4% | 10.0% | 22.3% | 30.8% | 83.3% |
| Brentwood | $617,000 | $641,983 | 103 | 41 | 98.8% | -3.2% | 0.4% | -1.0% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 4.0% |
| Clayton | $915,000 | $952,444 | 9 | 22 | 99.6% | 7.6% | 13.5% | -30.8% | 1.7% | 7.0% | -43.8% |
| Concord | $666,430 | $672,586 | 106 | 27 | 101.5% | 7.1% | 3.5% | -8.6% | 4.1% | 0.2% | -10.2% |
| Danville | $1,335,750 | $1,407,913 | 73 | 38 | 98.6% | -2.9% | -5.4% | 2.8% | -2.9% | -8.1% | 28.1% |
| Discovery Bay | $628,500 | $649,630 | 32 | 48 | 99.4% | -2.5% | -5.2% | -20.0% | 6.5% | 1.8% | -13.5% |
| El Cerrito | $950,000 | $997,914 | 23 | 18 | 117.5% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 9.5% | 3.0% | 35.3% | 35.3% |
| El Sobrante | $542,500 | $569,583 | 12 | 16 | 103.2% | -13.3% | -6.3% | 71.4% | -12.5% | -9.3% | -29.4% |
| Hercules | $672,500 | $687,855 | 18 | 30 | 102.1% | -1.8% | -0.8% | -10.0% | -6.6% | -3.4% | 20.0% |
| Kensington | $1,250,000 | $1,255,000 | 3 | 14 | 133.3% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 0.0% | 14.2% | 14.2% | -40.0% |
| Lafayette | $1,467,500 | $1,636,667 | 30 | 32 | 102.4% | -1.8% | 0.0% | 7.1% | -11.1% | -6.9% | 11.1% |
| Martinez | $660,000 | $654,851 | 37 | 23 | 100.1% | 3.9% | 1.4% | -32.7% | 3.5% | -12.7% | -11.9% |
| Moraga | $1,360,000 | $1,410,200 | 13 | 34 | 99.9% | -3.5% | -5.6% | 62.5% | -3.9% | -2.9% | 0.0% |
| Oakley | $506,435 | $533,758 | 61 | 37 | 99.7% | -2.8% | -0.9% | 13.0% | -0.7% | -5.3% | 24.5% |
| Orinda | $1,395,000 | $1,510,797 | 30 | 37 | 99.9% | -13.9% | -9.0% | -3.2% | -16.1% | -12.5% | 36.4% |
| Pinole | $572,500 | $607,938 | 16 | 27 | 100.1% | -3.7% | 0.6% | 0.0% | -3.8% | -3.2% | -11.1% |
| Pittsburg | $445,000 | $453,006 | 55 | 22 | 99.9% | 2.3% | 1.2% | -12.7% | -3.3% | -5.9% | 17.0% |
| Pleasant Hill | $803,980 | $846,777 | 31 | 20 | 101.9% | -8.1% | -3.3% | -20.5% | 3.7% | -1.6% | 6.9% |
| Richmond | $558,000 | $593,667 | 65 | 27 | 103.6% | 1.5% | 7.7% | -11.0% | 0.5% | -1.7% | -8.5% |
| Rodeo | $540,000 | $520,438 | 8 | 49 | 98.7% | 22.7% | 18.3% | 700.0% | -9.2% | -12.3% | 60.0% |
| San Ramon | $1,086,000 | $1,172,241 | 68 | 31 | 98.7% | -14.8% | -9.6% | 28.3% | -8.0% | -4.3% | -16.0% |
| Walnut Creek | $1,150,000 | $1,206,880 | 51 | 24 | 100.0% | 10.0% | 6.5% | 8.5% | -6.1% | -3.1% | -22.7% |
| August Sales Statistics | |||||||||||
| (Condos/Townhomes) | |||||||||||
| Prices | Units | Change from last year | Change from last month | ||||||||
| Median | Average | Sold | DOM | SP/LP | Median | Average | Sold | Median | Average | Sold | |
| County | $485,000 | $539,239 | 235 | 31 | 100.3% | -2.0% | 0.1% | -11.3% | -2.0% | 0.1% | -11.3% |
| Antioch | $267,500 | $269,950 | 10 | 21 | 100.4% | -1.7% | 5.4% | -9.1% | -1.7% | 5.4% | 11.1% |
| Concord | $350,000 | $352,316 | 25 | 15 | 100.3% | 0.1% | 1.7% | -45.7% | 0.1% | 1.7% | -34.2% |
| Danville | $737,750 | $755,106 | 18 | 26 | 99.1% | -7.8% | -7.3% | 0.0% | -7.8% | -7.3% | 38.5% |
| Hercules | $407,750 | $411,607 | 14 | 25 | 101.2% | -1.7% | -0.3% | -26.3% | -1.7% | -0.3% | 0.0% |
| Martinez | $397,500 | $410,150 | 10 | 49 | 99.1% | -19.2% | -12.9% | 42.9% | -19.2% | -12.9% | 0.0% |
| Moraga | $585,000 | $712,886 | 7 | 28 | 102.3% | -29.3% | -16.0% | 75.0% | -29.3% | -16.0% | 16.7% |
| Pleasant Hill | $570,000 | $561,111 | 9 | 18 | 99.9% | 0.2% | 6.3% | -10.0% | 0.2% | 6.3% | 28.6% |
| Richmond | $513,500 | $502,110 | 9 | 61 | 100.5% | -5.6% | -6.8% | -43.8% | -5.6% | -6.8% | -55.0% |
| San Pablo | $400,000 | $400,000 | 1 | 104 | 100.0% | -8.0% | 0.5% | -87.5% | -8.0% | 0.5% | -83.3% |
| San Ramon | $688,000 | $691,376 | 25 | 40 | 99.2% | 10.1% | 3.7% | -13.8% | 10.1% | 3.7% | -24.2% |
| Walnut Creek | $515,500 | $578,555 | 84 | 31 | 101.0% | -6.7% | -2.8% | 13.5% | -6.7% | -2.8% | -2.3% |
Aug. 30, 2019 -- By any reckoning, it was a turbulent summer for financial markets, with records highs for major stock indexes followed by massive selloffs, a Federal Reserve completing a pirouette on policy by cutting interest rates and ending its portfolio runoff early and interest rates plummeting around the world, sometimes to new record low yields in deeply negative territory. The intensification of the trade impasse and corresponding tit-for-tat tariff impositions has roiled economies across the globe, slowing growth and raising the prospects of multi-economy recessions. As a result of all this (and more) mortgage rates certainly are closing the summer at about a half-percentage point below where they began the period, and are much, much closer to historic lows than not.
But to what effect? Certainly, a spate of elevated refinancing activity has broken out for much of the period, but the pool of potential refinances is limited compared to those in periods such as 2012 or 2016, where years of high interest rates followed by record lows and unprecedented refinancing programs (HARP, etc) made virtually all homeowners eligible (2012) or 2016, when a fresh round of low rates appeared after years of property price and job market improvement saw a rush of missed-the-boat homeowners those getting out of HAMP modifications surge into the market.
In different times, we would be in the midst of a cash-out refinancing boom, but still stiff underwriting requirements (LTVs generally not greater than 85% at most) and unfavorable tax treatment of home equity debt (no longer deductible) have certainly trimmed enthusiasm for this particular avenue, although it remains viable for some. That leaves largely good old rate-and-term refinances to pick up the baton; however, home sales have been mostly moderate over the last few years (probably totaling perhaps 17 million or so all told), and mortgage rates were only meaningfully above today's levels (i.e. a half-point or more higher) for only about two-thirds of period since those 2016 lows, so the potential pool of homeowners who might refinance is not all that large. Recent estimates from Black Knight put that pool at potentially 9.7 million borrowers, but not all will have the motivation, strength of credit, cash on hand or other necessities to jump back into the market... and for those without cash, a "no-cost" refinance will likely leave them with a rate little better than they have now.
Either here or somewhere else, low mortgage rates come from economic malaise, and headlines of impending doom and gloom can bring a psychological cost, too, one that could hinder the benefits of them. The Fed cutting interest rates can also send such a signal, as it shows that the central bank is increasingly worried about the outlook. In turn, consumers may start to anticipate a worsening economic climate and begin to become more cautious about spending, including on things like houses, which would further trim overall economic growth.
Underlying interest rates that influence mortgages ended the week at about their midpoint for the last five days, and provided that there is no outsized reaction to the economic fallout from the new tariffs come Tuesday morning (and absent any new inflammatory messages from either the U.S. or China) we may just see mortgage rates hold steady next week.
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This page is copyrighted by http://rereport.com. All rights are reserved.