Statistical Tables | | Third Time's The Charm?

Trends at a Glance
(Single-family Homes)
  Oct 19 Sep 19 Oct 18
Average Price: $864,504 $827,353 $853,795
Median Price: $680,000 $651,000 $652,500
Home Sales: 951 880 895
DOM: 33 34 28
SP/LP Ratio: 100.5% 100.0% 100.5%
(Condos/Townhomes)
  Oct 19 Sep 19 Oct 18
Average Price: $555,921 $519,159 $526,794
Median Price: $497,000 $447,250 $459,000
Home Sales: 228 186 237
DOM: 29 36 28
SP/LP Ratio: 100.6% 99.8% 100.7%

Home Prices & Sales Continue Rising

The average sales price for single-family, re-sale homes rose last month for the third month in a row. It rose 1.3%. The average sales price has now been higher than the year before thirty-five of the past thirty-six months.

The median sales price also was up for the third month in a row, rising 4.2% from last October.

The sales price to list price ratio for homes stayed over 100% for the eighth month in a row. It was 100.5%.

Sales of single-family, re-sale homes were up, year-over-year, by 6.3%.

Days on market, or how long it takes to go from being listed to being under contract, fell one day for homes to thirty-three days.

The median sales price for condos was up 11.1% from September, and, it was up 8.3% year-over-year. The average price was up 7.1% from September, and, it was up 5.5% year-over-year.

Condo sales were down 3.8% year-over-year.

The sales price to list price ratio for condos went back over 100%. It was 100.6%.

Days on market, or how long it takes to go from being listed to being under contract, dropped from thirty-six days to twenty-nine days for condos.

Momentum Statistics

SSales momentum…

for single-family homes rose 1.6 points to –8.4.

Pricing momentum…

for single-family homes dipped 0.1 of a point to +2.1.

Our momentum statistics are based on 12-month moving averages to eliminate monthly and seasonal variations.

We calculate…

momentum by using a 12-month moving average to eliminate seasonality. By comparing this year's 12-month moving average to last year's, we get a percentage showing market momentum.  

In the chart below…

the blue area shows momentum for home sales while the red line shows momentum for pending sales of single-family, re-sale homes. The purple line shows momentum for the average price.

As you can see, pricing momentum has an inverse relationship to sales momentum.

Remember, the real estate market is a matter of neighborhoods and houses. No two are the same. For complete information on a particular neighborhood or property, call me.

P.S. The FHA requires all condo projects to be re-certified before they will make a loan. To find out if the condo project you're interested in is eligible, go here: https://entp.hud.gov/idapp/html/condlook.cfm.

The real estate market is very hard to generalize. It is a market made up of many micro markets. For complete information on a particular neighborhood or property, call me.

If I can help you devise a strategy, call or click the buying or selling link in the menu to the left.

Monthly Statistics

Complete monthly sales statistics for Contra Costa County are below. Monthly graphs are available for each city in the county.

October Sales Statistics
(Single-family Homes)
  Prices Units     Change from last year Change from last month
  Median Average Sold DOM SP/LP Median Average Sold Median Average Sold
County $680,000 $864,504 951 33 100.5% 4.2% 1.3% 6.3% 4.5% 4.5% 8.1%
Alamo $1,792,785 $2,190,662 22 70 98.1% 2.4% 4.7% 29.4% -2.0% 12.5% 69.2%
Antioch $466,500 $479,267 92 30 100.1% 5.5% 6.5% -14.0% -2.8% 0.0% -11.5%
Bay Point $394,100 $407,019 8 34 100.1% -4.1% 0.3% -61.9% -21.2% -19.0% -38.5%
Blackhawk $1,715,000 $1,825,727 11 38 97.8% 5.9% 20.4% 10.0% 22.3% 30.8% 83.3%
Brentwood $615,000 $628,811 103 47 98.9% -0.7% -8.7% 39.2% -1.8% -0.9% 22.6%
Clayton $882,500 $917,595 14 30 98.1% 11.4% 9.5% 27.3% 6.3% 9.6% 0.0%
Concord $640,000 $673,735 91 24 100.5% 5.8% 7.3% -8.1% 1.8% 2.5% -9.0%
Danville $1,386,500 $1,483,106 82 36 99.0% 3.5% -1.8% 24.2% 0.7% 2.0% 51.9%
Discovery Bay $614,000 $624,603 33 53 98.2% -13.9% -14.8% 65.0% -0.7% -8.1% -34.0%
El Cerrito $890,000 $988,374 25 21 114.0% 5.1% 5.1% 66.7% 8.1% 127.3% 127.3%
El Sobrante $595,000 $643,413 7 49 101.4% -22.7% -3.6% 0.0% -4.3% 0.1% -50.0%
Hercules $691,000 $732,647 17 38 101.3% -1.1% 8.3% -26.1% -2.7% -4.6% 70.0%
Kensington $1,414,500 $1,346,583 12 20 112.0% 10.5% 10.5% 20.0% 12.2% 12.2% 300.0%
Lafayette $1,508,000 $1,681,220 27 34 99.2% -8.8% -14.6% -3.6% 0.0% -5.6% 68.8%
Martinez $698,000 $698,027 43 19 101.3% 5.4% 6.9% 34.4% 3.3% 2.6% 30.3%
Moraga $1,452,500 $1,464,233 8 33 100.6% 5.6% 5.3% -27.3% -3.2% -0.8% -27.3%
Oakley $518,000 $524,385 56 32 99.8% 1.1% 0.0% 16.7% -0.4% -3.1% 1.8%
Orinda $1,460,000 $1,520,881 21 41 100.9% -3.8% -10.9% -12.5% -6.3% -16.7% -4.5%
Pinole $635,000 $619,938 16 26 101.6% 15.5% 6.6% 23.1% 5.2% 4.3% -20.0%
Pittsburg $455,000 $476,625 47 34 100.1% -3.2% -4.1% 4.4% -6.8% -5.3% 34.3%
Pleasant Hill $800,000 $859,975 31 18 101.5% 11.8% 16.4% -8.8% -4.8% -3.4% 14.8%
Richmond $579,000 $615,303 66 27 105.6% 1.6% 3.2% -1.5% -0.8% -1.4% 3.1%
Rodeo $546,250 $561,250 6 21 102.5% 5.6% 6.7% 50.0% 11.5% 9.6% -33.3%
San Ramon $1,080,000 $1,192,147 53 34 98.6% -10.0% -6.8% 3.9% 3.8% 4.3% 3.9%
Walnut Creek $1,200,000 $1,227,245 50 25 99.9% 7.6% 1.1% 8.7% 3.0% -5.4% 4.2%

 

October Sales Statistics
(Condos/Townhomes)
  Prices Units     Change from last year Change from last month
  Median Average Sold DOM SP/LP Median Average Sold Median Average Sold
County $497,000 $555,921 228 29 100.6% 11.1% 7.1% -3.8% 11.1% 7.1% 22.6%
Antioch $285,000 $286,036 11 28 100.4% 7.5% 10.9% 10.0% 7.5% 10.9% 83.3%
Concord $329,000 $339,748 30 36 98.8% 1.2% -2.5% -21.1% 1.2% -2.5% 3.4%
Danville $850,000 $896,318 11 14 100.0% 19.7% 30.5% -15.4% 19.7% 30.5% 22.2%
Hercules $467,500 $458,833 12 23 101.7% 23.8% 21.7% 9.1% 23.8% 21.7% 100.0%
Martinez $415,500 $427,900 11 27 101.1% 10.9% 9.8% 0.0% 10.9% 9.8% -8.3%
Moraga $811,500 $760,822 9 17 100.0% -5.6% -11.0% 50.0% -5.6% -11.0% 200.0%
Pleasant Hill $650,000 $632,286 7 8 102.4% 17.2% 18.0% -41.7% 17.2% 18.0% -12.5%
Richmond $485,000 $497,769 13 27 100.8% 5.1% -0.6% 8.3% 5.1% -0.6% 8.3%
San Pablo $437,500 $395,000 4 13 101.6% 14.4% 1.3% 0.0% 14.4% 1.3% 0.0%
San Ramon $620,000 $658,739 23 43 99.5% -14.5% -2.7% 15.0% -14.5% -2.7% 76.9%
Walnut Creek $585,000 $632,202 79 27 101.4% 14.8% 5.5% 3.9% 14.8% 5.5% 33.9%

Third Time's The Charm?

Nov. 1, 2019 -- Citing again "the implications of global developments for the economic outlook as well as muted inflation pressures", and that "uncertainties about this outlook" for continued modest economic growth remain, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates for a third time in three months, lowering the federal funds target rate to 1.5% from 1.75%, a level last seen back in March 2018.

While this change as widely expected by markets, the Fed has been struggling with exactly how to tell markets its future intentions for monetary policy without specifically tipping its hand. It did so in two ways: First, in the statement that accompanied the close of Wednesday's meeting, it removed the characterization that the central bank would "act as appropriate to sustain the expansion" in favor of a pledge that is would " monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook as it assesses the appropriate path of the target range for the federal funds rate." As such, they committed to no specific policy action, but will dig through the data and determine what needs to be done.

Second, the Fed wanted to allay any market fear or reaction that the next move for policy (whenever it may come) would be likely to be an increase. This was handled in the press conference after the meeting, where Fed Chair Jay Powell noted that [the FOMC] "would need to see a really significant move up in inflation that’s persistent before we would consider raising rates to address inflation concerns." With no specific plans to cut rates again unless economic conditions significantly worsen and none to raise rates until inflation is persistently strong it would seem that we may be in for an extended pause by the Fed, who would likely prefer to move to the sidelines at this point.

We learned last week that sales of both new and existing homes tailed a little bit in September, tempered by rising prices, limited inventories and other considerations. Things may pick up a little bit as we close the year, though, as the National Association of Realtors reported that their Pending Home Sales Index rose by 1.5% in October to land at its high for the year to date.

As sales of existing homes are tallied in the month the title changes hands -- a period typically 30- to 60 days from the signing of a sales contract -- we might expect to see firming sales of existing homes for November and/or December. To that end, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported that while applications for mortgages rose by just 0.6% overall in the week ending October 25, there was a 2.3% gain in those for purchase money mortgages (the first increase since September) while applications for refinancing slid by 0.5 percent.

While there is plenty more new data on tap for investors to consider, the indication for mortgage rates as we close this week is one of decline. If it holds, we think there's a chance for a 6-8 basis point decline in the offered rate for a conforming 30-year FRM as reported by Freddie Mac next Thursday, dropping us back closer to the middle of the summer-fall range so far.