Statistical Tables | | Economic Mayday

Trends at a Glance
(Single-family Homes)
  Apr 20 Mar 20 Apr 19
Average Price: $892,996 $905,786 $895,671
Median Price: $700,000 $715,000 $675,000
Home Sales: 597 726 914
DOM: 21 26 31
SP/LP Ratio: 101.3% 102.3% 100.9%
(Condos/Townhomes)
  Apr 20 Mar 20 Apr 19
Average Price: $536,130 $564,390 $556,685
Median Price: $485,000 $484,000 $511,250
Condo Sales: 133 225 262
DOM: 22 24 29
SP/LP Ratio: 100.0% 101.2% 101.2%

Sales Plunge in April

Sales of single-family, re-sale homes tanked, year-over-year, by 34.7%. They were down 17.8% from March. There were 597 homes sold last month.

The average sales price for single-family, re-sale homes fell 0.3% year-over-year. It fell 1.4% from March.

The median sales price was up 3.7% compared to last April, but, it was down 2.1% from March.

The sales price to list price ratio for homes fell to 101.3% from 102.3%.

Days on market, or how long it takes to go from being listed to being under contract, fell five days for homes to twenty-one days.

The median sales price for condos was up 0.2% from March, but, it was down 5.1% year-over-year. The average price was down 5% from March, and, it was down 3.7% year-over-year.

Condo sales were down 49.2% year-over-year. There were 133 condo sales last month.

The sales price to list price ratio for condos went from 101.2% to 100%.

Days on market, or how long it takes to go from being listed to being under contract, dropped from twenty-four days to twenty-two days for condos.

Momentum Statistics

Sales momentum…

for single-family homes fell 2.5 points to –2.3.

Pricing momentum…

for single-family homes rose 0.4 of a point to +2.7.

Our momentum statistics are based on 12-month moving averages to eliminate monthly and seasonal variations.

We calculate…

momentum by using a 12-month moving average to eliminate seasonality. By comparing this year's 12-month moving average to last year's, we get a percentage showing market momentum.  

In the chart below…

the blue area shows momentum for home sales while the red line shows momentum for pending sales of single-family, re-sale homes. The purple line shows momentum for the average price.

As you can see, pricing momentum has an inverse relationship to sales momentum.

Remember, the real estate market is a matter of neighborhoods and houses. No two are the same. For complete information on a particular neighborhood or property, call me.

P.S. The FHA requires all condo projects to be re-certified before they will make a loan. To find out if the condo project you're interested in is eligible, go here: https://entp.hud.gov/idapp/html/condlook.cfm.

The real estate market is very hard to generalize. It is a market made up of many micro markets. For complete information on a particular neighborhood or property, call me.

If I can help you devise a strategy, call or click the buying or selling link in the menu to the left.

Monthly Statistics

Complete monthly sales statistics for Contra Costa County are below. Monthly graphs are available for each city in the county.

April Sales Statistics
(Single-family Homes)
  Prices Units     Change from last year Change from last month
  Median Average Sold DOM SP/LP Median Average Sold Median Average Sold
County $700,000 $892,996 597 21 101.3% 3.7% -0.3% -34.7% -2.1% -1.4% -17.8%
Alamo $2,100,000 $1,903,731 13 15 98.4% 2.4% -12.1% -43.5% 4.3% -6.8% -27.8%
Antioch $486,500 $503,052 72 17 101.8% 4.1% 8.1% -25.0% 2.4% 5.2% 1.4%
Bay Point $535,000 $521,900 10 17 101.4% 32.9% 11.7% -37.5% 17.6% 5.1% -28.6%
Blackhawk $1,715,000 $1,825,727 11 38 97.8% 5.9% 20.4% 10.0% 22.3% 30.8% 83.3%
Brentwood $624,000 $647,826 58 29 100.0% 2.7% 2.7% -34.8% 6.8% 3.7% -14.7%
Clayton $880,000 $885,667 9 20 100.4% -2.4% -8.9% -52.6% -0.2% -4.2% 0.0%
Concord $669,500 $699,962 52 11 103.2% 7.8% 7.3% -39.5% -2.3% -2.4% -32.5%
Danville $1,487,500 $1,535,412 52 17 99.8% 2.6% -1.2% -32.5% 4.4% 2.3% -21.2%
Discovery Bay $611,944 $689,640 34 38 99.0% 8.2% 16.2% 41.7% -3.5% 3.2% 13.3%
El Cerrito $990,000 $1,064,000 7 28 114.2% 23.1% 23.1% -46.2% 6.3% -56.3% -56.3%
El Sobrante $633,500 $601,750 4 16 104.9% 3.9% -0.2% -42.9% 0.5% -7.5% -20.0%
Hercules $724,250 $699,083 6 11 103.7% 9.3% 2.9% -50.0% -3.3% -4.2% -40.0%
Kensington $1,270,000 $1,314,600 5 7 109.2% -7.4% -7.4% -44.4% 8.5% 8.5% 0.0%
Lafayette $1,760,000 $1,669,318 16 23 99.4% -7.7% -13.5% -46.7% 6.7% -5.7% 23.1%
Martinez $700,000 $711,227 15 14 101.0% 10.7% 12.0% -59.5% 1.9% 1.6% -42.3%
Moraga $1,395,000 $1,496,429 14 9 102.3% -7.9% -8.0% -17.6% -9.0% -10.4% 75.0%
Oakley $572,000 $561,028 32 32 100.2% 17.0% 13.5% -31.9% 12.3% 7.8% -15.8%
Orinda $1,350,000 $1,541,115 15 10 102.7% -8.5% -5.6% -37.5% -29.1% -19.3% -21.1%
Pinole $610,000 $638,000 5 11 100.8% 5.2% 10.1% -58.3% -2.6% 0.4% -50.0%
Pittsburg $480,000 $486,021 29 34 100.9% 5.6% 3.3% -44.2% 2.3% 1.0% -21.6%
Pleasant Hill $937,500 $933,500 14 11 103.4% 12.2% 4.6% -50.0% 11.3% 0.6% -22.2%
Richmond $630,000 $649,910 47 19 108.6% 9.6% 11.0% -7.8% 14.5% 9.3% 0.0%
Rodeo $525,000 $531,833 6 36 100.7% 6.1% 0.7% 100.0% -5.8% -1.0% -25.0%
San Ramon $1,186,950 $1,258,951 38 19 99.6% -0.7% -1.4% -42.4% -5.0% -5.4% -40.6%
Walnut Creek $1,217,500 $1,290,688 32 14 100.5% 3.2% 9.5% -36.0% -0.4% -0.5% 0.0%

April Sales Statistics
(Condos/Townhomes)
  Prices Units     Change from last year Change from last month
  Median Average Sold DOM SP/LP Median Average Sold Median Average Sold
County $485,000 $536,130 133 22 100.0% 0.2% -5.0% -49.2% 0.2% -5.0% -40.9%
Antioch $280,000 $285,000 7 29 105.4% 0.0% 2.7% -30.0% 0.0% 2.7% 40.0%
Concord $337,500 $355,917 18 22 98.3% -7.5% -4.7% -40.0% -7.5% -4.7% -21.7%
Danville $870,000 $864,000 14 16 101.3% -3.3% -3.8% -26.3% -3.3% -3.8% -6.7%
Hercules $406,000 $416,222 9 11 103.5% 12.8% 10.0% -30.8% 12.8% 10.0% -30.8%
Martinez $432,500 $426,800 13 29 100.6% 5.2% -3.8% 30.0% 5.2% -3.8% -23.5%
Moraga $329,000 $329,000 1 20 94.0% -58.4% -56.4% -75.0% -58.4% -56.4% -83.3%
Pleasant Hill $549,000 $555,571 7 15 99.8% 11.0% 1.0% -30.0% 11.0% 1.0% 16.7%
Richmond $325,000 $330,963 3 79 98.7% -36.1% -36.5% -80.0% -36.1% -36.5% -80.0%
San Pablo $352,000 $369,650 6 10 101.2% -7.9% -1.7% 0.0% -7.9% -1.7% 0.0%
San Ramon $639,500 $669,090 10 19 100.2% 1.1% -1.7% -66.7% 1.1% -1.7% -67.7%
Walnut Creek $622,475 $658,832 36 23 99.5% 7.8% 9.5% -62.5% 7.8% 9.5% -45.5%

Economic Mayday

May 1, 2020 -- The figures coming in continue to be truly staggering, and not just in the United States. The Eurozone GDP figure for the first quarter of 2020 was released this week, and the 3.8% decline from the first quarter was the largest ever for the European Union tracking series, which dates to 1995. This translates to an annualized 14.4% decline, so the drop-off was quite severe, and far in excess of the decline in the U.S., which posted it's own sharp contraction with a 4.8% annualized drop in GDP for the same period.

The housing market will struggle to provide any contribution to economic growth for at least a time, although some sales are taking place. The National Association of Realtors reported their Pending Home Sales Index for April, and the figure didn't drop to zero, but rather showed a 20.8% month-to-month decline in activity from March as well as a 16.5% decline from the same period a year ago. It is the height of the spring housing market season, and while workarounds, virtual open houses and more will help support activity and sales, it's a balky process and not as familiar for many potential buyers and sellers, and only the most motivated participants will try to engage it.

Still, the Mortgage Bankers Association noted that applications for purchase-money mortgages were up in the week ending April 24, with the 11.6% gain a second consecutive increase. This was the first back-to-back gain since the first two weeks of the year, and at least shows a little sign of life. Applications for refinancing slipped, but as mortgage rates dropped to new "all time" lows this week again, odds favor that at least some homeowners with jobs and not having trouble making existing payments may jump in to the market. How many fit this population is unclear; lots of in-place mortgages have interest rates not all that far from today's levels.

In most areas, construction has been considered an "essential" function, so many projects continued apace. Construction spending increased in March, rising 0.9%, powered higher by outlays for residential structures (+2.3%) and public-works spending (+1.6%). Commercial, retail and industrial outlays declined by 1.3% and those sectors will likely continue to be a drag as offices and stores remain empty and closed, with significant concerns about how many will re-open once they are allowed to do so.

Mortgage rates slipped a little more than we expected this week, and appear to be settling down somewhat more, arguably for a number of reasons. Lenders are working through the surge of refinance business from March and don't need to price as defensively to meter inbound business; recent announcements that give servicers some clarity as to their obligations to manage forbearance costs help, too, as does the change in regulation that allows Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to purchase loans that have fallen into forbearance shortly after being originated. As well, the Fed's continuing pledge to purchase Treasuries and MBS in whatever amounts are needed to ensure market function completes the circle to a degree. Rates are low, and if a lender originates a loan that quickly sours, they wont be stuck with it; servicers with loans that have gone sour don't have obligations to forward payments to the loan's owner for longer than four months, and the level of new business coming in to lender doors (virtually, of course) is at a more manageable level. If all these components continue along, odds favor somewhat lower rates as we move forward, for at least a time.

With rates a little lower than expected this week, there's likely somewhat less of a decline on tap next week, but a decline does seem in the offing. Call it a 5-6 basis point decline in the average offered rate for a conforming 30-year fixed rate mortgage as reported by Freddie Mac come next Thursday morning.