Statistical Tables | | Rearview Mirror

Trends at a Glance
(Single-family Homes)
  Sep 20 Aug 20 Sep 19
Average Price: $980,161 $1,027,696 $823,819
Median Price: $780,500 $800,000 $650,000
Home Sales: 1,176 1,142 907
DOM: 21 23 34
SP/LP Ratio: 102.9% 101.4% 100.0%
(Condos/Townhomes)
  Sep 20 Aug 20 Sep 19
Average Price: $566,731 $598,675 $516,097
Median Price: $528,500 $555,000 $445,750
Condo Sales: 273 239 196
DOM: 24 26 35
SP/LP Ratio: 100.7% 100.4% 99.7%

Home Prices & Sales Continue Rising

The average sales price for single-family, re-sale homes rose 19% year-over-year. It fell 4.6% from August.
The median sales price was up 20.1% compared to last September, but, it was down 2.4% from August.
The sales price to list price ratio for homes rose to 102.9% from 101.4%.
Sales of single-family, re-sale homes rose 3% from August. They were up 29.7% year-over-year. There were 1,176 homes sold last month. The average monthly sales since 2005 is 907.
Year-to-date, home sales are down 8.6%.
Days on market, or how long it takes to go from being listed to being under contract, for homes fell two days to twenty-one days.
The median sales price for condos was down 4.8% from August, but, it was up 18.6% year-over-year. The average price was down 5.3% from August, but, it was up 9.8% year-over-year.
Condo sales were up 14.2% from August, and, they were up 39.3% year-over-year. There were 273 condo sales last month.
The sales price to list price ratio for condos went from 100.4% to 100.7%.
Days on market, or how long it takes to go from being listed to being under contract, fell from twenty-six days to twenty-four days for condos. 

Momentum Statistics

Sales momentum…

for single-family homes rose 2.1 points to –5.9.

Pricing momentum…

for single-family homes rose 1.4 points to +7.8.

Our momentum statistics are based on 12-month moving averages to eliminate monthly and seasonal variations.

We calculate…

momentum by using a 12-month moving average to eliminate seasonality. By comparing this year's 12-month moving average to last year's, we get a percentage showing market momentum.  

In the chart below…

the blue area shows momentum for home sales while the red line shows momentum for pending sales of single-family, re-sale homes. The purple line shows momentum for the average price.

As you can see, pricing momentum has an inverse relationship to sales momentum.

Remember, the real estate market is a matter of neighborhoods and houses. No two are the same. For complete information on a particular neighborhood or property, call me.

P.S. The FHA requires all condo projects to be re-certified before they will make a loan. To find out if the condo project you're interested in is eligible, go here: https://entp.hud.gov/idapp/html/condlook.cfm.

The real estate market is very hard to generalize. It is a market made up of many micro markets. For complete information on a particular neighborhood or property, call me.

If I can help you devise a strategy, call or click the buying or selling link in the menu to the left.

Monthly Statistics

Complete monthly sales statistics for Contra Costa County are below. Monthly graphs are available for each city in the county.

September Sales Statistics
(Single-family Homes)
  Prices Units     Change from last year Change from last month
  Median Average Sold DOM SP/LP Median Average Sold Median Average Sold
County $780,500 $980,161 1,176 21 102.9% 20.1% 19.0% 29.7% -2.4% -4.6% 3.0%
Alamo $2,200,000 $2,246,751 23 37 99.9% 20.2% 15.3% 76.9% 18.3% -14.2% -14.8%
Antioch $535,000 $542,486 110 18 103.9% 11.5% 13.1% 5.8% 7.3% 7.7% 11.1%
Bay Point $437,000 $476,679 14 23 101.3% -12.6% -5.1% 7.7% 10.6% 8.6% 55.6%
Blackhawk $1,715,000 $1,825,727 11 38 97.8% 5.9% 20.4% 10.0% 22.3% 30.8% 83.3%
Brentwood $660,000 $701,691 111 28 100.4% 6.0% 11.0% 29.1% -5.3% -1.5% -0.9%
Clayton $917,500 $959,464 14 17 102.9% 10.5% 14.6% 0.0% -6.4% 3.6% 7.7%
Concord $727,000 $754,107 124 13 103.2% 14.5% 14.7% 18.1% 0.6% 2.4% -4.6%
Danville $1,475,000 $1,558,600 115 21 101.2% 6.9% 6.4% 109.1% -1.2% -2.9% -8.7%
Discovery Bay $750,000 $801,535 51 39 99.9% 21.6% 18.5% -3.8% 14.5% 7.8% 13.3%
El Cerrito $1,007,500 $1,166,851 24 17 112.8% 27.6% 27.6% 118.2% 9.2% 20.0% 20.0%
El Sobrante $707,500 $656,000 14 18 104.5% 13.2% 1.1% -6.7% 7.0% 2.3% 40.0%
Hercules $720,000 $742,385 13 18 104.3% -3.8% -3.1% 18.2% -8.3% -7.9% -31.6%
Kensington $1,587,500 $1,809,500 4 31 111.6% 50.8% 50.8% 33.3% 41.8% 41.8% -55.6%
Lafayette $1,745,000 $2,078,432 52 19 101.1% 19.1% 28.0% 67.7% -1.7% 7.7% 15.6%
Martinez $751,750 $768,739 54 17 103.0% 11.2% 13.0% 63.6% -1.0% -2.9% 22.7%
Moraga $1,435,000 $1,408,333 15 9 104.2% -4.3% -4.6% 36.4% -10.3% -16.2% -21.1%
Oakley $556,808 $570,299 64 19 102.4% 6.8% 5.3% 10.3% 4.6% 1.3% 60.0%
Orinda $1,727,500 $1,809,740 32 16 104.9% 10.9% -0.9% 45.5% -1.8% -5.6% 3.2%
Pinole $710,000 $694,333 15 17 106.6% 17.6% 16.9% -25.0% 16.4% 11.3% -11.8%
Pittsburg $517,550 $525,999 56 19 103.0% 5.1% 2.2% 40.0% 2.5% 3.6% 16.7%
Pleasant Hill $955,000 $948,727 33 12 105.1% 13.7% 6.8% 13.8% 3.8% 1.7% -26.7%
Richmond $635,000 $654,323 69 27 103.7% 9.2% 5.6% 4.5% 4.6% 3.8% 15.0%
Rodeo $705,000 $705,000 1 9 100.7% 21.6% 21.4% -83.3% 41.0% 42.0% -85.7%
San Ramon $1,316,200 $1,362,299 74 14 104.2% 26.6% 19.2% 45.1% 3.4% -0.8% -2.6%
Walnut Creek $1,246,500 $1,352,589 76 18 104.5% 8.4% 4.6% 55.1% -0.9% 3.6% 35.7%

September Sales Statistics
(Condos/Townhomes)
  Prices Units     Change from last year Change from last month
  Median Average Sold DOM SP/LP Median Average Sold Median Average Sold
County $528,500 $566,731 273 24 100.7% -4.8% -5.3% 39.3% -4.8% -5.3% 14.2%
Antioch $296,000 $300,400 6 16 101.6% 0.3% 5.2% 0.0% 0.3% 5.2% -33.3%
Concord $366,000 $382,168 28 14 101.9% -1.1% 0.8% -12.5% -1.1% 0.8% -6.7%
Danville $827,000 $817,861 18 15 100.6% 8.8% 8.8% 80.0% 8.8% 8.8% -5.3%
Hercules $431,250 $439,036 14 20 102.3% 4.0% 3.7% 133.3% 4.0% 3.7% 40.0%
Martinez $425,000 $417,176 17 18 102.6% 0.6% -5.1% 41.7% 0.6% -5.1% 112.5%
Moraga $647,500 $676,200 10 21 102.3% -31.9% -26.1% 233.3% -31.9% -26.1% 66.7%
Pleasant Hill $520,000 $508,950 10 16 102.0% -6.0% -8.1% 11.1% -6.0% -8.1% -9.1%
Richmond $514,500 $518,101 16 17 101.6% 1.9% -1.2% 14.3% 1.9% -1.2% 6.7%
San Pablo $497,000 $443,857 7 40 100.3% 42.4% 31.2% 75.0% 42.4% 31.2% 40.0%
San Ramon $765,000 $723,312 33 21 100.5% -4.3% -1.1% 153.8% -4.3% -1.1% -10.8%
Walnut Creek $575,000 $596,165 93 35 99.6% -4.0% -11.7% 50.0% -4.0% -11.7% 24.0%

Rearview Mirror

October 2, 2020 -- By its nature, economic data can only tell us what has already happened and can even suggest where we might be at the moment, but it cannot tell us where we're going. Even significant previous events that routinely occur -- recessions, for example -- can be triggered by unique events, and so the response in each case (and any outcomes) will of course be different. Although there are some common reactions, such as the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates (or even buying bonds) it's by no means clear that whatever bromide is used will have the intended effect.

One report that looks backwards but may actually suggest the future is the National Association of Realtors Pending Home Sales Index. A tally taken when sales contracts are signed, the PHSI rose to its highest level ever (19-year series) in August, climbing 8.8% over July's value. Actual sales of existing homes are totaled up when the deed changes hands, which can take up to 60 days or so, so this would suggest that existing home sales reports for September and October will show improvement over the current (August) figure of 6 million annual sales, which was a 14-year high. How much above the current level is hard to reckon, since not all contracts make it through the process, and ever-thinning inventories of homes available to buy at increasingly higher prices seems likely to start to temper sales as we move deeper into the fourth quarter.

Construction spending kicked higher in August, driven there by a continuing surge in spending for home construction. The report showed an overall 1.4% increase in outlays for projects of all kinds, but those for housing spiked 3.7% higher (and that on the heels of twin 2.6% gains in June and July). Homebuilding has been on a tear, but that's not the case for non-residential projects, which sported a decline of 0.3% during the month and has seen an increase in just two of the last eight months. Public-works spending edged just 0.1% higher for the month and has been soft for the last three, but since this is an election year we'll see a slight boost when the September and October reports come out.

With Fed policy on hold, fiscal policy at bay for the moment (and perhaps longer, given the short time until the elections) and an economy that is running about as fast at it can given the situation, mortgage rates really don't have reason to move much in either direction at the present time. With that as a backdrop, applications for mortgages are essentially backing and filling, and have largely been doing so for weeks or even months. In the week ending September 25, it was backing again, with the Mortgage Bankers Association reporting a 4.8% decline in new applications for mortgage credit. Requests for purchase-money mortgages eased 1.8%, but those for refinancing dropped by 6.5%, erasing a bit of the previous week's jump.

As mortgage rates are essentially flat, there's not much impetus for homeowners to rush into a refinance, and home purchases depend on having something to buy as well as favorable rates, which should remain, so there's no pressure there, either. That will again be the case next week, where we think it'll be more of the same, with the average offered rate for a conforming 30-year fixed rate mortgage wobbling a couple of basis points at best when Freddie Mac reports next Thursday morning -- most likely upward.