Statistical Tables | | Comparative Calm To Close Summer

Trends at a Glance
(Single-family Homes)
  Aug 19 Jul 19 Aug 18
Average Price: $825,673 $845,862 $813,669
Median Price: $670,000 $658,500 $640,000
Home Sales: 1,033 1,036 1,077
DOM: 31 26 27
SP/LP Ratio: 100.6% 100.9% 100.8%
(Condos/Townhomes)
  Aug 19 Jul 19 Aug 18
Average Price: $539,239 $538,928 $533,678
Median Price: $485,000 $495,000 $469,000
Home Sales: 235 265 265
DOM: 31 30 21
SP/LP Ratio: 100.3% 100.4% 102.0%

Home Sales Continue to Fall

Contrary to what we wrote in March that the plethora of tech IPOs would generate thousands of new millionaires and drive home prices and sales upward, they have, instead, declined steadily.

The reason for the decline is the Chinese have abandoned the market. Sales of real estate to Chinese buyers is down 56% year-over-year. See this article in USA Today: https://tinyurl.com/y5vmrq7f.

Sales of single-family, re-sale homes were down, year-over-year, for the third month in a row. They fell 4.1%.

After being higher than the year before for 33 months in a row, the average sales price for single-family, re-sale homes fell in July. It rebounded in August to gain 1.5%.

The median sales price also rebounded, rising 4.7% from last August.

Condo sales were down 11.3% year-over-year.

The median sales price for condos was down 2.0% from July, but, it was up 3.4% year-over-year. The average price was up 0.1% from July, and, it was up 1.0% year-over-year.

The sales price to list price ratio stayed over 100% for the sixth month in a row for both homes and condos. It was 100.6% for homes and 100.3% for condos.

Days on market, or how long it takes to go from being listed to being under contract, was thirty-one days for both homes condos. 

Momentum Statistics

SSales momentum…

for single-family homes rose 0.5 of a point to –12.3.

Pricing momentum…

for single-family homes rose 0.2 of a point to +2.6.

Our momentum statistics are based on 12-month moving averages to eliminate monthly and seasonal variations.

We calculate…

momentum by using a 12-month moving average to eliminate seasonality. By comparing this year's 12-month moving average to last year's, we get a percentage showing market momentum.  

In the chart below…

the blue area shows momentum for home sales while the red line shows momentum for pending sales of single-family, re-sale homes. The purple line shows momentum for the average price.

As you can see, pricing momentum has an inverse relationship to sales momentum.

Remember, the real estate market is a matter of neighborhoods and houses. No two are the same. For complete information on a particular neighborhood or property, call me.

P.S. The FHA requires all condo projects to be re-certified before they will make a loan. To find out if the condo project you're interested in is eligible, go here: https://entp.hud.gov/idapp/html/condlook.cfm.

The real estate market is very hard to generalize. It is a market made up of many micro markets. For complete information on a particular neighborhood or property, call me.

If I can help you devise a strategy, call or click the buying or selling link in the menu to the left.

Monthly Statistics

Complete monthly sales statistics for Contra Costa County are below. Monthly graphs are available for each city in the county.

August Sales Statistics
(Single-family Homes)
  Prices Units     Change from last year Change from last month
  Median Average Sold DOM SP/LP Median Average Sold Median Average Sold
County $670,000 $825,673 1,033 31 100.6% 4.7% 1.5% -4.1% 1.7% -2.4% -0.3%
Alamo $1,762,500 $1,905,668 16 34 98.5% 6.4% 3.2% -27.3% -7.7% -4.6% 6.7%
Antioch $488,500 $480,261 118 27 100.2% 7.5% 3.1% -14.5% 2.8% 0.0% -4.8%
Bay Point $350,000 $421,267 15 20 100.8% -26.2% -14.5% -6.3% -21.8% -8.8% -16.7%
Blackhawk $1,715,000 $1,825,727 11 38 97.8% 5.9% 20.4% 10.0% 22.3% 30.8% 83.3%
Brentwood $617,000 $641,983 103 41 98.8% -3.2% 0.4% -1.0% 1.4% 2.2% 4.0%
Clayton $915,000 $952,444 9 22 99.6% 7.6% 13.5% -30.8% 1.7% 7.0% -43.8%
Concord $666,430 $672,586 106 27 101.5% 7.1% 3.5% -8.6% 4.1% 0.2% -10.2%
Danville $1,335,750 $1,407,913 73 38 98.6% -2.9% -5.4% 2.8% -2.9% -8.1% 28.1%
Discovery Bay $628,500 $649,630 32 48 99.4% -2.5% -5.2% -20.0% 6.5% 1.8% -13.5%
El Cerrito $950,000 $997,914 23 18 117.5% 2.9% 2.9% 9.5% 3.0% 35.3% 35.3%
El Sobrante $542,500 $569,583 12 16 103.2% -13.3% -6.3% 71.4% -12.5% -9.3% -29.4%
Hercules $672,500 $687,855 18 30 102.1% -1.8% -0.8% -10.0% -6.6% -3.4% 20.0%
Kensington $1,250,000 $1,255,000 3 14 133.3% 7.4% 7.4% 0.0% 14.2% 14.2% -40.0%
Lafayette $1,467,500 $1,636,667 30 32 102.4% -1.8% 0.0% 7.1% -11.1% -6.9% 11.1%
Martinez $660,000 $654,851 37 23 100.1% 3.9% 1.4% -32.7% 3.5% -12.7% -11.9%
Moraga $1,360,000 $1,410,200 13 34 99.9% -3.5% -5.6% 62.5% -3.9% -2.9% 0.0%
Oakley $506,435 $533,758 61 37 99.7% -2.8% -0.9% 13.0% -0.7% -5.3% 24.5%
Orinda $1,395,000 $1,510,797 30 37 99.9% -13.9% -9.0% -3.2% -16.1% -12.5% 36.4%
Pinole $572,500 $607,938 16 27 100.1% -3.7% 0.6% 0.0% -3.8% -3.2% -11.1%
Pittsburg $445,000 $453,006 55 22 99.9% 2.3% 1.2% -12.7% -3.3% -5.9% 17.0%
Pleasant Hill $803,980 $846,777 31 20 101.9% -8.1% -3.3% -20.5% 3.7% -1.6% 6.9%
Richmond $558,000 $593,667 65 27 103.6% 1.5% 7.7% -11.0% 0.5% -1.7% -8.5%
Rodeo $540,000 $520,438 8 49 98.7% 22.7% 18.3% 700.0% -9.2% -12.3% 60.0%
San Ramon $1,086,000 $1,172,241 68 31 98.7% -14.8% -9.6% 28.3% -8.0% -4.3% -16.0%
Walnut Creek $1,150,000 $1,206,880 51 24 100.0% 10.0% 6.5% 8.5% -6.1% -3.1% -22.7%

 

August Sales Statistics
(Condos/Townhomes)
  Prices Units     Change from last year Change from last month
  Median Average Sold DOM SP/LP Median Average Sold Median Average Sold
County $485,000 $539,239 235 31 100.3% -2.0% 0.1% -11.3% -2.0% 0.1% -11.3%
Antioch $267,500 $269,950 10 21 100.4% -1.7% 5.4% -9.1% -1.7% 5.4% 11.1%
Concord $350,000 $352,316 25 15 100.3% 0.1% 1.7% -45.7% 0.1% 1.7% -34.2%
Danville $737,750 $755,106 18 26 99.1% -7.8% -7.3% 0.0% -7.8% -7.3% 38.5%
Hercules $407,750 $411,607 14 25 101.2% -1.7% -0.3% -26.3% -1.7% -0.3% 0.0%
Martinez $397,500 $410,150 10 49 99.1% -19.2% -12.9% 42.9% -19.2% -12.9% 0.0%
Moraga $585,000 $712,886 7 28 102.3% -29.3% -16.0% 75.0% -29.3% -16.0% 16.7%
Pleasant Hill $570,000 $561,111 9 18 99.9% 0.2% 6.3% -10.0% 0.2% 6.3% 28.6%
Richmond $513,500 $502,110 9 61 100.5% -5.6% -6.8% -43.8% -5.6% -6.8% -55.0%
San Pablo $400,000 $400,000 1 104 100.0% -8.0% 0.5% -87.5% -8.0% 0.5% -83.3%
San Ramon $688,000 $691,376 25 40 99.2% 10.1% 3.7% -13.8% 10.1% 3.7% -24.2%
Walnut Creek $515,500 $578,555 84 31 101.0% -6.7% -2.8% 13.5% -6.7% -2.8% -2.3%

Comparative Calm To Close Summer

Aug. 30, 2019 -- By any reckoning, it was a turbulent summer for financial markets, with records highs for major stock indexes followed by massive selloffs, a Federal Reserve completing a pirouette on policy by cutting interest rates and ending its portfolio runoff early and interest rates plummeting around the world, sometimes to new record low yields in deeply negative territory. The intensification of the trade impasse and corresponding tit-for-tat tariff impositions has roiled economies across the globe, slowing growth and raising the prospects of multi-economy recessions. As a result of all this (and more) mortgage rates certainly are closing the summer at about a half-percentage point below where they began the period, and are much, much closer to historic lows than not.

But to what effect? Certainly, a spate of elevated refinancing activity has broken out for much of the period, but the pool of potential refinances is limited compared to those in periods such as 2012 or 2016, where years of high interest rates followed by record lows and unprecedented refinancing programs (HARP, etc) made virtually all homeowners eligible (2012) or 2016, when a fresh round of low rates appeared after years of property price and job market improvement saw a rush of missed-the-boat homeowners those getting out of HAMP modifications surge into the market.

In different times, we would be in the midst of a cash-out refinancing boom, but still stiff underwriting requirements (LTVs generally not greater than 85% at most) and unfavorable tax treatment of home equity debt (no longer deductible) have certainly trimmed enthusiasm for this particular avenue, although it remains viable for some. That leaves largely good old rate-and-term refinances to pick up the baton; however, home sales have been mostly moderate over the last few years (probably totaling perhaps 17 million or so all told), and mortgage rates were only meaningfully above today's levels (i.e. a half-point or more higher) for only about two-thirds of period since those 2016 lows, so the potential pool of homeowners who might refinance is not all that large. Recent estimates from Black Knight put that pool at potentially 9.7 million borrowers, but not all will have the motivation, strength of credit, cash on hand or other necessities to jump back into the market... and for those without cash, a "no-cost" refinance will likely leave them with a rate little better than they have now.

Either here or somewhere else, low mortgage rates come from economic malaise, and headlines of impending doom and gloom can bring a psychological cost, too, one that could hinder the benefits of them. The Fed cutting interest rates can also send such a signal, as it shows that the central bank is increasingly worried about the outlook. In turn, consumers may start to anticipate a worsening economic climate and begin to become more cautious about spending, including on things like houses, which would further trim overall economic growth.

Underlying interest rates that influence mortgages ended the week at about their midpoint for the last five days, and provided that there is no outsized reaction to the economic fallout from the new tariffs come Tuesday morning (and absent any new inflammatory messages from either the U.S. or China) we may just see mortgage rates hold steady next week.