Statistical Tables | | Cooler Economic Climate, But Will The Fed Move?

Trends at a Glance
(Single-family Homes)
  May 19 Apr 19 May 18
Average Price: $896,458 $900,713 $875,678
Median Price: $700,000 $675,563 $685,000
Home Sales: 1,186 880 1,160
DOM: 25 31 21
SP/LP Ratio: 101.7% 100.9% 103.0%
(Condos/Townhomes)
  May 19 Apr 19 May 18
Average Price: $542,549 $560,727 $574,454
Median Price: $500,000 $516,000 $510,000
Home Sales: 293 255 269
DOM: 29 29 17
SP/LP Ratio: 100.6% 101.2% 103.2%

Home Sales Prices Up, Sales Down

The average sales price for single-family, re-sale homes was up, year-over-year, for the 33rd month in a row in June. It gained 0.3%.

The median sales price also gained 0.3% over last June.

Sales of single-family, re-sale homes fell 12.1% year-over-year.

Condo sales were down 12.7% year-over-year.

The median sales price for condos was up 6% from May, but it was down 1.9% year-over-year. The average price was up 3% from May, but it was down 2.8% year-over-year.

The sales price to list price ratio stayed over 100% for the fourth month in a row for both homes and condos. It was 101.4% for homes and 100.9% for condos.

Days on market, or how long it takes to go from being listed to being under contract, was twenty-five days for homes and condos.

Momentum Statistics

Sales momentum…

for single-family homes fell 0.4 of a point to –10.8.

Pricing momentum…

for single-family homes fell 0.7 of a point to +3.2.

Our momentum statistics are based on 12-month moving averages to eliminate monthly and seasonal variations.

We calculate…

momentum by using a 12-month moving average to eliminate seasonality. By comparing this year's 12-month moving average to last year's, we get a percentage showing market momentum.  

In the chart below…

the blue area shows momentum for home sales while the red line shows momentum for pending sales of single-family, re-sale homes. The purple line shows momentum for the average price.

As you can see, pricing momentum has an inverse relationship to sales momentum.

Remember, the real estate market is a matter of neighborhoods and houses. No two are the same. For complete information on a particular neighborhood or property, call me.

P.S. The FHA requires all condo projects to be re-certified before they will make a loan. To find out if the condo project you're interested in is eligible, go here: https://entp.hud.gov/idapp/html/condlook.cfm.

The real estate market is very hard to generalize. It is a market made up of many micro markets. For complete information on a particular neighborhood or property, call me.

If I can help you devise a strategy, call or click the buying or selling link in the menu to the left.

Monthly Statistics

Complete monthly sales statistics for Contra Costa County are below. Monthly graphs are available for each city in the county.

May Sales Statistics
(Single-family Homes)
  Prices Units     Change from last year Change from last month
  Median Average Sold DOM SP/LP Median Average Sold Median Average Sold
County $700,000 $896,458 1,186 25 101.7% 2.2% 2.4% 2.2% 3.6% -0.5% 34.8%
Alamo $1,775,000 $1,831,143 28 20 100.3% -2.5% -13.0% 3.7% -13.4% -15.5% 21.7%
Antioch $475,000 $480,007 128 22 101.0% 3.7% 3.7% -2.3% 0.7% 2.7% 39.1%
Bay Point $375,000 $421,071 14 24 101.3% -16.7% -6.8% 0.0% -6.8% -9.9% -12.5%
Blackhawk $1,715,000 $1,825,727 11 38 97.8% 5.9% 20.4% 10.0% 22.3% 30.8% 83.3%
Brentwood $600,000 $633,738 98 28 99.7% 0.0% 2.3% -8.4% -1.2% 0.4% 12.6%
Clayton $877,500 $912,110 20 23 101.0% 3.7% 11.5% -4.8% -4.6% -8.7% 17.6%
Concord $635,750 $671,273 130 20 101.9% -1.1% -0.6% 15.0% 3.2% 3.0% 52.9%
Danville $1,350,000 $1,570,536 85 23 99.6% -3.6% 5.8% -4.5% -6.9% 0.7% 13.3%
Discovery Bay $594,500 $671,310 40 51 98.0% -0.9% 5.8% 21.2% 6.0% 13.0% 90.5%
El Cerrito $1,015,500 $1,066,925 20 19 121.6% 8.4% 8.4% -20.0% 23.4% 53.8% 53.8%
El Sobrante $584,800 $632,426 16 33 104.9% -8.7% -4.6% 60.0% -4.1% 4.9% 128.6%
Hercules $722,780 $681,348 15 26 101.8% 11.2% 2.0% 0.0% 7.9% -0.4% 36.4%
Kensington $1,245,000 $1,322,500 4 14 119.1% 33.6% 33.6% 100.0% -6.8% -6.8% -55.6%
Lafayette $1,737,000 $1,832,534 42 23 102.1% 0.7% 3.4% 20.0% -6.9% -4.9% 44.8%
Martinez $700,000 $701,011 47 29 101.0% 14.8% 6.7% 14.6% 10.7% 9.5% 34.3%
Moraga $1,531,000 $1,519,636 22 18 103.1% 15.3% 5.4% 83.3% 1.0% -6.6% 29.4%
Oakley $520,000 $546,466 60 37 99.8% 4.0% 10.9% -16.7% 6.1% 10.0% 33.3%
Orinda $1,795,000 $1,763,800 25 23 104.4% 13.3% -4.8% -30.6% 21.7% 8.1% 4.2%
Pinole $592,500 $597,958 24 26 101.6% -1.3% -2.4% 26.3% 4.9% 4.3% 118.2%
Pittsburg $465,000 $475,798 49 22 100.0% 3.8% 1.3% -3.9% 1.2% 1.3% 0.0%
Pleasant Hill $900,000 $867,041 32 13 101.6% 5.9% -0.4% -13.5% 7.7% -2.8% 14.3%
Richmond $567,500 $606,760 72 36 108.2% 2.7% 4.2% 5.9% -1.7% 3.5% 50.0%
Rodeo $543,000 $514,444 11 42 100.2% -4.7% -3.4% 57.1% 13.7% 11.1% 37.5%
San Ramon $1,151,500 $1,226,782 94 15 100.2% -4.0% -0.1% 10.6% -3.0% -2.9% 51.6%
Walnut Creek $1,190,000 $1,224,304 79 17 102.0% 4.6% 3.1% 9.7% 0.8% 3.4% 61.2%

 

May Sales Statistics
(Condos/Townhomes)
  Prices Units     Change from last year Change from last month
  Median Average Sold DOM SP/LP Median Average Sold Median Average Sold
County $500,000 $542,549 293 29 100.6% -3.1% -3.2% 8.9% -3.1% -3.2% 14.9%
Antioch $249,950 $235,815 10 21 100.3% 0.0% -3.4% 25.0% 0.0% -3.4% 0.0%
Concord $330,000 $345,519 41 25 100.8% 0.0% -1.2% 24.2% 0.0% -1.2% 36.7%
Danville $790,000 $790,821 14 24 99.9% 5.3% 5.4% -39.1% 5.3% 5.4% -26.3%
Hercules $425,250 $423,393 14 34 102.2% 4.7% 8.3% 180.0% 4.7% 8.3% 7.7%
Martinez $475,000 $461,333 9 48 98.8% 6.6% -2.0% -18.2% 6.6% -2.0% 12.5%
Moraga $727,000 $743,750 10 32 100.9% 4.8% 8.9% 0.0% 4.8% 8.9% 150.0%
Pleasant Hill $671,500 $652,667 6 14 101.9% 23.1% 14.3% -14.3% 23.1% 14.3% -40.0%
Richmond $445,000 $493,129 34 39 101.6% -20.5% -11.0% 70.0% -20.5% -11.0% 126.7%
San Pablo $330,000 $332,500 3 47 95.0% -25.8% -20.5% -57.1% -25.8% -20.5% -40.0%
San Ramon $635,500 $674,987 34 25 99.8% -8.0% -2.6% 41.7% -8.0% -2.6% 13.3%
Walnut Creek $572,000 $598,359 95 28 100.8% 0.8% -6.7% -3.1% 0.8% -6.7% 1.1%

 

Cooler Economic Climate, But Will The Fed Move?

July 5, 2019 -- There is little doubt that the economic climate has cooled throughout the spring and now into summer, but is a slow-growth period enough to see the Fed cut interest rates at its next meeting? The incoming data has been mixed at best, inflation has been running at a level below the Fed's 2% target and there certainly are headwinds to growth evident both here and overseas.

Futures markets are convinced that a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate at the end of this month is a lock, assigning a 95% probability to such a change. While the Fed does seem to be leaning toward easier policy, we're not yet convinced that the central bank is ready to make a move, as a period of pretty soft growth isn't the same as an outright decline that requires action. As well, some of the key data the Fed focuses on has been fair or even fairly good despite a changed climate, and the Fed may not feel the same urgency to move that the markets and administration are exhibiting.

Construction spending stalled in May. Overall outlays for projects of all kinds declined 0.8%, dragged down by declines in residential, commercial/industrial and public project spending. For residential construction, a 0.6% fall for the month was a fifth consecutive decline (and 9 of the last 12 months has also seen declines, so housing construction has little momentum at the moment). Spending on non-residential projects declined by 0.9% in May, a second consecutive fall, while public-works spending took a break from a rather torrid pace, falling by 0.9% in May after a 4.5% gain in April.

The Fed issued its semiannual monetary policy report, and Fed Chairman Powell will appear before both the House and Senate committees next week to discuss it. The report reiterated that the Fed "will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion," but that "the actual path of monetary policy will depend on the evolution of the economic outlook and risks to the outlook as informed by incoming data." Although FOMC members did mark down their projections for the federal funds rate in the Summary of Economic Projections just released a few weeks ago, the incoming data hasn't been significantly worse, and the U.S.-China "truce" for the imposition of new tariffs brightens the overall economic picture somewhat. If the Fed does think that it may keep rates steady at the end of this month, or that the FOMC wants to see more date before it makes a decision, now would be the time for Chairman Powell to reveal this to the markets. If not, a rate cut in less than a months' time will remain on the table and the market would be very disappointed if it didn't come. This would be a good time to manage market expectations cautiously.

Friday's solid employment report kicked underlying interest rates higher, reversing a downtrend that set in before the Independence Day holiday (that decline likely from money being parked in Treasuries so as to see some investors enjoy a long weekend). If that's the case, some of that cash moved out of bonds today, and odds are pretty good that a little more will move out on Monday. This increases the chances of another small increase in mortgage rates, but nothing extraordinary and probably not totaling more than a couple of basis points at most.