Statistical Tables | | Fed Stands Pat, Rates Dip

Trends at a Glance
(Single-family Homes)
  Jul 20 Jun 20 Jul 19
Average Price: $1,013,746 $948,579 $839,363
Median Price: $780,000 $750,000 $650,000
Home Sales: 1,195 930 1,087
DOM: 27 26 26
SP/LP Ratio: 102.1% 100.4% 100.8%
(Condos/Townhomes)
  Jul 20 Jun 20 Jul 19
Average Price: $556,771 $540,511 $537,246
Median Price: $534,000 $497,450 $495,000
Condo Sales: 271 204 276
DOM: 31 32 30
SP/LP Ratio: 99.9% 99.6% 100.4%

Home Prices Set New Highs, Sales Surge, Again

The average sales price for single-family, re-sale homes rose 20.8% year-over-year. It gained 6.9% from June.

The median sales price was up 20% compared to last July, and, it was up 4% from June.

That’s the second month in a row home sales prices have set new highs.

The sales price to list price ratio for homes rose to 102.1% from 100.4%.

Sales of single-family, re-sale homes surged 28.5% from June. They were up 9.9% year-over-year. There were 1,195 homes sold last month. The average monthly sales since 2005 is 907.

Year-to-date, home sales are down 16.8%.

Days on market, or how long it takes to go from being listed to being under contract, for homes rose one day to twenty-seven days.

The median sales price for condos was up 7.3% from June, and, it was up 7.9% year-over-year. The average price was up 3% from June, and, it was up 3.6% year-over-year.

Condo sales were up 32.8% from June, but, they were down 1.8% year-over-year. There were 271 condo sales last month.

The sales price to list price ratio for condos went from 99.6% to 99.9%.

Days on market, or how long it takes to go from being listed to being under contract, fell from thirty-two days to thirty-one days for condos.

Momentum Statistics

Sales momentum…

for single-family homes rose 1.8 points to –8.7.

Pricing momentum…

for single-family homes rose 1.8 points to +5.2.

Our momentum statistics are based on 12-month moving averages to eliminate monthly and seasonal variations.

We calculate…

momentum by using a 12-month moving average to eliminate seasonality. By comparing this year's 12-month moving average to last year's, we get a percentage showing market momentum.  

In the chart below…

the blue area shows momentum for home sales while the red line shows momentum for pending sales of single-family, re-sale homes. The purple line shows momentum for the average price.

As you can see, pricing momentum has an inverse relationship to sales momentum.

Remember, the real estate market is a matter of neighborhoods and houses. No two are the same. For complete information on a particular neighborhood or property, call me.

P.S. The FHA requires all condo projects to be re-certified before they will make a loan. To find out if the condo project you're interested in is eligible, go here: https://entp.hud.gov/idapp/html/condlook.cfm.

The real estate market is very hard to generalize. It is a market made up of many micro markets. For complete information on a particular neighborhood or property, call me.

If I can help you devise a strategy, call or click the buying or selling link in the menu to the left.

Monthly Statistics

Complete monthly sales statistics for Contra Costa County are below. Monthly graphs are available for each city in the county.

July Sales Statistics
(Single-family Homes)
  Prices Units     Change from last year Change from last month
  Median Average Sold DOM SP/LP Median Average Sold Median Average Sold
County $780,000 $1,013,746 1,195 27 102.1% 20.0% 20.8% 9.9% 4.0% 6.9% 28.5%
Alamo $1,750,000 $1,997,332 28 36 98.8% -8.4% 0.0% 86.7% -16.7% -11.6% 27.3%
Antioch $496,500 $498,641 112 25 101.9% 4.0% 3.6% -15.2% 1.3% 0.5% 34.9%
Bay Point $550,000 $531,667 9 17 100.8% 23.6% 16.3% -52.6% 16.4% 27.8% 28.6%
Blackhawk $1,715,000 $1,825,727 11 38 97.8% 5.9% 20.4% 10.0% 22.3% 30.8% 83.3%
Brentwood $642,000 $684,695 119 41 100.1% 5.4% 8.7% 17.8% 1.1% 4.0% 21.4%
Clayton $864,900 $853,280 15 17 99.8% -3.9% -4.2% -6.3% -5.2% -12.2% -25.0%
Concord $708,500 $732,052 122 20 102.2% 11.1% 9.8% -4.7% 5.0% 6.7% 40.2%
Danville $1,500,000 $1,693,182 115 26 106.8% 9.1% 12.2% 88.5% -1.9% 6.2% 33.7%
Discovery Bay $661,500 $772,812 58 45 97.1% 12.3% 21.7% 52.6% 3.4% 15.3% 48.7%
El Cerrito $1,080,000 $1,144,739 18 17 110.1% 18.2% 18.2% 5.9% 8.4% 20.0% 20.0%
El Sobrante $597,500 $595,857 14 90 102.1% -8.1% -6.6% -26.3% -1.2% 2.4% 27.3%
Hercules $677,450 $679,429 18 36 100.6% -4.6% -4.4% 12.5% -7.3% -10.3% 100.0%
Kensington $1,230,000 $1,263,220 10 25 109.5% 14.9% 14.9% 100.0% -4.0% -4.0% 150.0%
Lafayette $1,775,000 $1,929,639 45 22 102.0% 7.6% 9.8% 66.7% 5.3% 10.0% 55.2%
Martinez $687,500 $732,758 42 25 102.3% 7.8% -1.7% -4.5% 0.4% 6.9% 16.7%
Moraga $1,575,000 $1,601,467 22 25 100.7% 11.9% 10.6% 57.1% 1.8% 1.4% 10.0%
Oakley $530,000 $539,966 62 22 101.0% 3.9% -4.1% 19.2% 3.5% 1.9% 3.3%
Orinda $1,779,100 $1,959,149 38 31 100.3% 9.5% 15.0% 65.2% -6.1% 2.0% 35.7%
Pinole $649,000 $671,523 11 14 104.8% 9.1% 8.7% -42.1% 5.5% 3.1% 0.0%
Pittsburg $520,000 $524,230 41 32 101.9% 13.7% 10.2% -21.2% 7.2% 7.5% 10.8%
Pleasant Hill $950,000 $944,459 37 13 102.0% 19.6% 9.2% 19.4% 13.1% 0.7% 27.6%
Richmond $622,500 $664,564 45 26 104.1% 8.3% 9.6% -38.4% 5.6% 9.7% -13.5%
Rodeo $500,000 $496,415 7 47 98.9% -1.0% -6.4% 40.0% -17.4% -16.0% 75.0%
San Ramon $1,237,500 $1,274,533 110 16 101.0% 5.5% 4.2% 31.0% 2.5% 2.4% 103.7%
Walnut Creek $1,250,000 $1,321,706 65 24 101.5% 2.0% 6.0% -3.0% -0.8% 4.9% -5.8%

July Sales Statistics
(Condos/Townhomes)
  Prices Units     Change from last year Change from last month
  Median Average Sold DOM SP/LP Median Average Sold Median Average Sold
County $534,000 $556,771 271 31 99.9% 7.3% 3.0% -1.8% 7.3% 3.0% 32.8%
Antioch $280,000 $278,857 7 46 101.3% 7.7% 4.5% -22.2% 7.7% 4.5% -36.4%
Concord $347,500 $355,633 30 22 100.1% 7.6% 2.0% -26.8% 7.6% 2.0% 25.0%
Danville $787,500 $791,388 24 21 99.2% 2.6% -0.1% 84.6% 2.6% -0.1% 71.4%
Hercules $388,200 $390,738 8 25 101.6% -1.7% -3.5% -46.7% -1.7% -3.5% -27.3%
Martinez $534,500 $483,750 14 47 101.7% 20.4% 7.3% 27.3% 20.4% 7.3% 16.7%
Moraga $950,000 $924,643 7 47 100.4% 35.7% 9.2% 16.7% 35.7% 9.2% 0.0%
Pleasant Hill $630,000 $597,500 14 17 101.5% 20.6% 12.0% 75.0% 20.6% 12.0% 40.0%
Richmond $465,000 $483,167 21 33 100.4% 0.0% 2.5% 5.0% 0.0% 2.5% 162.5%
San Pablo $370,000 $370,000 1 9 100.0% 13.2% 13.2% -83.3% 13.2% 13.2% -50.0%
San Ramon $670,000 $682,185 24 32 100.5% 1.5% -2.3% -29.4% 1.5% -2.3% -7.7%
Walnut Creek $580,000 $595,886 91 33 99.1% -1.7% 2.4% 2.2% -1.7% 2.4% 40.0%

Fed Stands Pat, Rates Dip

July 31, 2020 -- With mortgage rates at or near record lows on a number of occasions, it's to be expected that home sales have picked up, even with the coronavirus making like challenging for buyers and sellers alike. We learned last week that existing home sales for June (reflective of activity in late April most of May, when things were re-opening) played a bit of catch-up, rising by 20.7% to 4.72 million (annualized) units sold after a three-month series of declined. This week, the National Association of Realtors Pending Home Sales Index posted a gain of 16.6 percent in June over May. This indicator tracks signed contracts; not all contracts will make it through to closing. However, if they did, this would suggest that sales will kick higher for July and likely August, too, and this would put the annual run rate of sales in the mid-5 million range -- about where they were to start the year and before the pandemic made a mess of things.

New applications for mortgages softened a bit in the week ending July 24, but as this is typically the height of vacation season and mortgage rates have been essentially in the same small range for weeks, there's really not a lot of urgency for borrowers to jump in for a refinance, and purchase activity remains more throttled by a lack of inventory to buy than not. According to the Mortgage Bankers Association, overall applications for mortgage credit slipped 0.8%, with those for purchase-money mortgages easing 1.5% and refinances by 0.4% for the week.

Buying plans for autos remained steady, as did those for appliances, while interest in purchasing houses increased. Record low mortgage rates are likely the cause of that despite the difficult economic climate for many.

Although there continues to be a fair bit of downward pull on mortgage rates, they remain stubbornly tethered at about present levels. Presently, the balance between the poor economic climate and Fed policy stance and bond-buying programs that should be pulling rates down is being offset to a nearly equal degree by the risks of making, servicing and investing in mortgages. Although the number of mortgages in forbearance programs continues to decline ever-so-gently, storm clouds of potential future loss remain prominent, what with unemployment at extraordinary levels and the amount and duration of any future fiscal support for homeowners and renters still unclear. Even if an effective COVID-19 vaccine was announced tomorrow, it will take a year or more to distribute it on a wide enough basis to do much good. Between now and then, there remains a lot of economic difficulty to endure, and this likely spells continuing trouble for participants in the mortgage market, whether homeowner or investor.

For next week, we think there is a good probability that we'll see at least a small decline in mortgage rates. Any move of more than a basis point in the averaged offered rate for a conforming 30-year FRM as reported by Freddie Mac will be a new record, and that's probably what we'll see come next Thursday morning. Whatever the decline may be, it would likely be a whole lot more if risks were abating, but new record lows will have to do, no matter how small the move into new territory it may be.