Statistical Tables | | Market Worries Partially Reversed

Trends at a Glance
(Single-family Homes)
  Dec 18 Nov 18 Dec 17
Average Price: $743,909 $814,581 $740,238
Median Price: $605,000 $640,000 $599,000
Home Sales: 652 835 827
DOM: 38 32 30
SP/LP Ratio: 99.5% 100.3% 100.9%
(Condos/Townhomes)
  Dec 18 Nov 18 Dec 17
Average Price: $520,276 $543,331 $488,572
Median Price: $475,000 $498,500 $435,000
Home Sales: 159 198 208
DOM: 38 29 30
SP/LP Ratio: 99.8% 100.3% 100.6%

Market Turning to Buyers

The real estate market in the Bay Area continues to soften. The sales price to list price ratio in Contra Costa County is at its lowest level since January 2016. It went below 100% in December for the first time since January 2017.

The average sales price for single-family, re-sale homes in Contra Costa County fell 8.7% from November. Year-over-year, it was up 0.5%. The median sales price was down 5.5% from November, and it was up 1% year-over-year.

The median sales price for condos was down 4.7% from November, but it was up 9.2% year-over-year. The average price was down 4.2% from November, and it was up 6.5% year-over-year.

Home sales were down 21.9% from November, and they were down 21.2% year-over-year. For the year, home sales were down 4.4%.

Condo sales were off 19.7% from November, and they were down 23.6% year-over-year. For the year, condo sales were down 4%.

Properties are moving fast. Days on market, or how long it takes to go from being listed to being under contract, was thirty-eight days for both homes and condos. The averages for the past fourteen years are forty and forty-one, respectively.

Momentum Statistics

Sales momentum…

for single-family homes fell 1.3 points to –4.6.

Pricing momentum…

for single-family homes fell 0.7 of a point to +5.8.

Our momentum statistics are based on 12-month moving averages to eliminate monthly and seasonal variations.

We calculate…

momentum by using a 12-month moving average to eliminate seasonality. By comparing this year's 12-month moving average to last year's, we get a percentage showing market momentum.  

In the chart below…

the blue area shows momentum for home sales while the red line shows momentum for pending sales of single-family, re-sale homes. The purple line shows momentum for the average price.

As you can see, pricing momentum has an inverse relationship to sales momentum.

Remember, the real estate market is a matter of neighborhoods and houses. No two are the same. For complete information on a particular neighborhood or property, call me.

P.S. The FHA requires all condo projects to be re-certified before they will make a loan. To find out if the condo project you're interested in is eligible, go here: https://entp.hud.gov/idapp/html/condlook.cfm.

The real estate market is very hard to generalize. It is a market made up of many micro markets. For complete information on a particular neighborhood or property, call me.

If I can help you devise a strategy, call or click the buying or selling link in the menu to the left.

Monthly Statistics

Complete monthly sales statistics for Contra Costa County are below. Monthly graphs are available for each city in the county.

December Sales Statistics
(Single-family Homes)
  Prices Units     Change from last year Change from last month
  Median Average Sold DOM SP/LP Median Average Sold Median Average Sold
County $605,000 $743,909 652 38 99.5% 1.0% 0.5% -21.2% -5.5% -8.7% -21.9%
Alamo $1,476,500 $1,489,550 10 36 98.2% -10.2% -20.9% -28.6% -30.6% -27.5% -28.6%
Antioch $459,444 $456,629 94 33 99.7% 8.1% 6.6% -13.8% 3.8% 4.2% 6.8%
Bay Point $490,000 $520,000 9 36 99.9% 6.1% -0.9% -10.0% 17.2% 18.8% -60.9%
Blackhawk $1,715,000 $1,825,727 11 38 97.8% 5.9% 20.4% 10.0% 22.3% 30.8% 83.3%
Brentwood $615,000 $620,491 49 61 99.0% 3.4% 0.3% -29.0% 3.4% 0.6% -14.0%
Clayton $835,000 $851,667 3 27 100.8% -5.0% -4.4% -40.0% -0.6% -1.7% -78.6%
Concord $619,000 $651,882 79 31 99.7% -0.3% 0.6% -2.5% 1.1% 2.6% -3.7%
Danville $1,345,000 $1,461,486 35 41 97.8% 3.0% 6.4% -35.2% 9.8% 9.1% -18.6%
Discovery Bay $560,000 $590,966 19 66 99.1% -17.8% -18.0% 5.6% -6.7% -8.9% -26.9%
El Cerrito $900,000 $922,054 19 45 104.9% -1.1% -1.1% -5.0% -10.5% -5.0% -5.0%
El Sobrante $615,000 $628,000 9 41 100.0% 7.0% 7.6% 0.0% 13.9% 5.6% -18.2%
Hercules $725,000 $700,664 13 28 101.0% 16.0% -4.3% 18.2% 11.0% 4.4% -31.6%
Kensington $1,000,008 $886,669 3 33 111.1% -25.6% -25.6% -50.0% -12.1% -12.1% -25.0%
Lafayette $1,085,000 $1,442,722 10 55 99.3% -14.6% 7.8% -50.0% -19.6% -25.7% -71.4%
Martinez $650,000 $718,238 21 46 98.5% 5.5% 19.2% -52.3% -2.3% 3.6% -48.8%
Moraga $1,332,500 $1,324,167 3 20 102.8% -1.2% 1.2% -80.0% -1.3% -7.2% -72.7%
Oakley $490,000 $502,351 41 36 99.6% 5.3% 7.5% -21.2% 0.6% -0.2% 0.0%
Orinda $1,264,000 $1,464,929 14 49 97.7% -5.5% -5.1% -12.5% -28.7% -22.3% -26.3%
Pinole $555,000 $588,878 9 47 98.5% 6.2% 7.4% -35.7% -2.6% 3.5% -52.6%
Pittsburg $465,000 $472,026 37 37 99.7% 5.6% 3.8% -33.9% 8.1% 5.7% -21.3%
Pleasant Hill $830,000 $882,525 21 39 99.7% 20.8% 21.0% 0.0% 3.8% 9.7% -25.0%
Richmond $530,000 $577,577 73 30 102.3% 5.3% 7.4% 15.9% -3.6% -0.4% -11.0%
Rodeo $440,000 $426,714 7 24 99.2% -2.7% -10.0% -36.4% -24.8% -24.5% 75.0%
San Ramon $1,210,000 $1,243,400 25 34 98.0% 11.0% 11.1% -28.6% 9.2% 4.9% -37.5%
Walnut Creek $1,100,000 $1,153,667 33 32 98.5% 11.7% 3.7% 13.8% 3.8% 2.2% -26.7%

 

December Sales Statistics
(Condos/Townhomes)
  Prices Units     Change from last year Change from last month
  Median Average Sold DOM SP/LP Median Average Sold Median Average Sold
County $475,000 $520,276 159 38 99.8% -4.7% -4.2% -23.6% -4.7% -4.2% -19.7%
Antioch $202,000 $208,656 9 27 98.6% -37.6% -30.1% 50.0% -37.6% -30.1% 125.0%
Concord $325,000 $334,110 21 24 99.9% -11.0% -12.5% -8.7% -11.0% -12.5% -22.2%
Danville $702,000 $727,400 10 34 99.0% -4.0% -2.7% 150.0% -4.0% -2.7% -28.6%
Hercules $409,975 $395,744 8 59 99.1% -1.2% -5.5% -20.0% -1.2% -5.5% 14.3%
Martinez $447,000 $444,000 3 5 99.9% 4.0% 1.3% -72.7% 4.0% 1.3% -70.0%
Moraga $425,000 $425,000 1 75 96.8% -23.4% -28.5% -87.5% -23.4% -28.5% -83.3%
Pleasant Hill $585,000 $575,200 5 9 101.6% -3.9% -7.3% -28.6% -3.9% -7.3% 25.0%
Richmond $500,000 $509,000 5 47 98.8% -18.7% -12.9% -70.6% -18.7% -12.9% -50.0%
San Pablo $450,000 $450,000 2 75 101.4% 28.6% 31.0% -75.0% 28.6% 31.0% -60.0%
San Ramon $637,000 $670,135 17 29 99.2% 6.3% 10.8% -22.7% 6.3% 10.8% 30.8%
Walnut Creek $530,000 $566,471 65 41 100.4% -4.9% -5.0% -8.5% -4.9% -5.0% -20.7%

Market Worries Partially Reversed

January 4, 2019 -- To the benefit of mortgage rates, there's been little good economic news of late. Slowing or stalling growth in major economies, a Fed intent on damping future growth and returning monetary policy to normal, collapsing oil prices, the trade and tariff imbroglio and even a partial government shutdown have all come together to largely crush equity markets and helped push bond yields and mortgage rates lower and lower in recent weeks.

However, a blockbuster employment report for December and soothing words from Federal Reserve Chairman Powell seem to cut short the growing narrative that the economy was quickly falling off a cliff, and a massive rally in major stock indexes on Friday reversed the decline in rates to a fair degree, at least for the moment.

The downtrend for interest rates was broken on Friday, as yields on the 10-year Treasury rebounded sharply... all the way back to about mid-Wednesday levels. Monday's markets will help decide if we see a decline in mortgage rates when Freddie Mac rolls out its report on Thursday morning. At the moment, it looks like we are likely to hold steady at present levels, but that Monday ISM report will have a lot to say as to whether we get a decrease or not.