Statistical Tables | | Good Times And Complaints

Trends at a Glance
(Single-family Homes)
  Apr 19 Mar 19 Apr 18
Average Price: $900,713 $839,789 $868,146
Median Price: $675,563 $638,475 $682,350
Home Sales: 880 790 967
DOM: 31 32 23
SP/LP Ratio: 100.9% 101.1% 102.5%
(Condos/Townhomes)
  Apr 19 Mar 19 Apr 18
Average Price: $560,727 $529,327 $534,838
Median Price: $516,000 $484,000 $480,000
Home Sales: 255 211 247
DOM: 29 29 17
SP/LP Ratio: 101.2% 100.4% 103.4%

Average Sales Price for Homes Sets New High

The average sales price for single-family, re-sale homes set a new high in April of $900,713. That was good for a 7.3% gain over March and a 3.8% gain year-over-year.

Sales of single-family, re-sale homes were up 11.4% in April from March. They were down 9% year-over-year. That is the ninth month in a row sales were down year-over-year.

Condo sales were up 20.9% from March. They were up 3.2% year-over-year.

The median sales price for condos was up 6.6% from March, and it was up 7.5% year-over-year. The average price was up 5.9% from March, and it was up 4.5% year-over-year.

The sales price to list price ratio stayed over 100% for the third month in a row for both homes and condos.

Days on market, or how long it takes to go from being listed to being under contract, was thirty-one days for homes and twenty-nine for condos.

Momentum Statistics

Sales momentum…

for single-family homes fell 1.5 points to –9.5.

Pricing momentum…

for single-family homes fell 0.6 of a point to +4.2.

Our momentum statistics are based on 12-month moving averages to eliminate monthly and seasonal variations.

We calculate…

momentum by using a 12-month moving average to eliminate seasonality. By comparing this year's 12-month moving average to last year's, we get a percentage showing market momentum.  

In the chart below…

the blue area shows momentum for home sales while the red line shows momentum for pending sales of single-family, re-sale homes. The purple line shows momentum for the average price.

As you can see, pricing momentum has an inverse relationship to sales momentum.

Remember, the real estate market is a matter of neighborhoods and houses. No two are the same. For complete information on a particular neighborhood or property, call me.

P.S. The FHA requires all condo projects to be re-certified before they will make a loan. To find out if the condo project you're interested in is eligible, go here: https://entp.hud.gov/idapp/html/condlook.cfm.

The real estate market is very hard to generalize. It is a market made up of many micro markets. For complete information on a particular neighborhood or property, call me.

If I can help you devise a strategy, call or click the buying or selling link in the menu to the left.

Monthly Statistics

Complete monthly sales statistics for Contra Costa County are below. Monthly graphs are available for each city in the county.

April Sales Statistics
(Single-family Homes)
  Prices Units     Change from last year Change from last month
  Median Average Sold DOM SP/LP Median Average Sold Median Average Sold
County $675,563 $900,713 880 31 100.9% -1.0% 3.8% -9.0% 5.8% 7.3% 11.4%
Alamo $2,050,000 $2,166,340 23 38 98.4% 17.3% 13.9% 15.0% 8.5% 6.6% 91.7%
Antioch $471,500 $467,208 92 37 100.1% 2.5% 4.8% -7.1% 1.4% -1.5% 50.8%
Bay Point $402,500 $467,368 16 30 101.7% -9.1% -3.5% 0.0% 3.7% 15.5% -20.0%
Blackhawk $1,715,000 $1,825,727 11 38 97.8% 5.9% 20.4% 10.0% 22.3% 30.8% 83.3%
Brentwood $607,500 $631,511 87 34 99.8% 1.3% 2.3% -18.7% 0.4% -0.9% 0.0%
Clayton $919,500 $998,618 17 37 97.8% 6.9% 14.1% -10.5% 18.0% 21.6% 30.8%
Concord $616,000 $651,529 85 16 101.8% -6.7% -4.8% -4.5% 3.5% 2.1% -3.4%
Danville $1,450,000 $1,559,208 75 27 98.8% 5.7% 2.6% -6.3% 10.3% 4.9% 56.3%
Discovery Bay $561,000 $594,186 21 55 98.8% -12.7% -14.6% -27.6% -1.6% -6.3% -36.4%
El Cerrito $821,000 $864,385 13 18 115.6% -23.0% -23.0% 30.0% -16.1% -23.5% -23.5%
El Sobrante $610,000 $603,000 7 24 102.6% 1.2% -3.6% -41.7% -0.8% -3.5% -53.3%
Hercules $670,000 $683,965 11 44 103.0% 3.1% 2.9% -47.6% 0.8% 3.3% -26.7%
Kensington $1,320,000 $1,419,444 9 27 113.0% -0.9% -0.9% 125.0% 13.5% 13.5% 28.6%
Lafayette $1,865,000 $1,926,966 29 27 102.6% 4.2% 2.7% 20.8% 5.1% 2.9% 26.1%
Martinez $632,500 $640,215 35 35 100.2% -7.8% -19.3% 2.9% 2.0% 2.4% -10.3%
Moraga $1,515,250 $1,627,010 17 11 103.1% -2.4% 4.4% 21.4% 1.0% 7.9% 142.9%
Oakley $490,000 $496,723 45 42 99.1% 2.6% 0.4% 7.1% -2.0% -1.9% 25.0%
Orinda $1,475,000 $1,631,923 24 32 101.9% -5.8% 2.1% 4.3% 0.0% 3.5% -11.1%
Pinole $565,000 $573,273 11 27 101.1% -8.1% -10.8% -15.4% -0.9% -3.0% 22.2%
Pittsburg $459,300 $469,766 49 36 101.2% -11.7% -9.4% -10.9% 4.4% 5.6% 8.9%
Pleasant Hill $835,500 $892,300 28 17 102.4% -16.5% -9.1% -9.7% 6.9% 11.1% 75.0%
Richmond $577,500 $586,206 48 36 105.5% -0.7% -0.4% -35.1% 4.5% 3.0% -17.2%
Rodeo $477,500 $463,156 8 68 101.0% -9.0% -6.5% 60.0% -17.7% -20.1% 300.0%
San Ramon $1,187,500 $1,263,092 62 23 99.3% -2.3% 2.3% -12.7% 1.7% 3.3% 19.2%
Walnut Creek $1,180,220 $1,183,534 49 25 101.5% -5.6% -4.4% 14.0% 5.1% -1.2% 8.9%

 

April Sales Statistics
(Condos/Townhomes)
  Prices Units     Change from last year Change from last month
  Median Average Sold DOM SP/LP Median Average Sold Median Average Sold
County $516,000 $560,727 255 29 101.2% 6.6% 5.9% 3.2% 6.6% 5.9% 20.9%
Antioch $250,000 $244,070 10 17 102.9% -9.1% -6.3% 66.7% -9.1% -6.3% 25.0%
Concord $330,000 $349,613 30 35 101.0% -7.0% -6.3% 11.1% -7.0% -6.3% -9.1%
Danville $750,000 $750,021 19 20 99.6% 4.5% 0.3% 46.2% 4.5% 0.3% 18.8%
Hercules $406,000 $390,923 13 25 101.3% 6.1% 3.0% 30.0% 6.1% 3.0% 62.5%
Martinez $445,500 $470,750 8 33 102.5% -2.5% 0.9% -11.1% -2.5% 0.9% -20.0%
Moraga $694,000 $683,000 4 58 99.3% -19.8% -16.6% -55.6% -19.8% -16.6% -33.3%
Pleasant Hill $545,500 $570,889 10 22 100.8% 17.9% 20.7% -23.1% 17.9% 20.7% 25.0%
Richmond $559,500 $554,300 15 49 100.4% 21.1% 9.8% -6.3% 21.1% 9.8% -11.8%
San Pablo $445,000 $418,400 5 42 100.4% 20.3% 13.1% 25.0% 20.3% 13.1% 400.0%
San Ramon $691,000 $693,067 30 26 99.7% 11.9% 5.8% 7.1% 11.9% 5.8% 15.4%
Walnut Creek $567,500 $641,604 94 25 101.9% 12.0% 12.4% 1.1% 12.0% 12.4% 46.9%

Good Times And Complaints

May 3, 2019 -- Although there are plenty of trouble on which one could focus, overall, the U.S. economy isn't really one of them. The pace of economic growth has moved higher of late, incomes are rising, the labor market is solid and financial conditions remain favorable. Interest rates remain far closer to historic lows than to anything approximating historical norms, but yet, there always seems to be someone who isn't quite happy.

Still, expressions of concern, worry or outright unhappiness persist. Take, for example, the bleating of President Trump to the Federal Reserve, pressing them not just to cut short-term rates, but to hack a full percentage point off of current levels and re-start Large-Scale Asset Purchases (LSAPs), commonly called Quantitative Easing (QE). To what end? Years of low interest rates --including the present day -- have helped create nearly the longest period of economic growth in U.S. history (coming soon now) and unemployment at 50-odd year lows. By what measure are lower rates the answer at this time? What sort of beneficial message would be sent to markets and consumers by moving rates back toward emergency levels?

Lower rates won't necessarily help anyone all that much. We know that low rates aren't really what's holding back a more robust housing market, which is suffering more from a lack of product to buy and high prices than difficult or expensive financing conditions. Low rates will tend to bring more demand into a market that has little supply, pressing prices higher and depleting inventory further, and that would actually tend to curtail growth in sales, at least for existing homes. After a lackluster existing home sales report for March last week (representative of demand in late January and February), the National Association of Realtors reported a 3.8% increase in their Pending Home Sales Index for the period, so falling mortgage rates in March did spur some folks into the market in early spring, who have likely now eaten up much of the minor increase in available inventory we've seen of late, and will probably also cause a slight re-firming of price increases, which have only recently come back to earth after years of far outstripping income growth.

Construction spending was a little soft in March, falling by 0.9% compared to February. We already new that spending for residential construction was in a soft pattern, and this continue in March with a 1.8% decline, a third such fall, making it 6 of the last 7 months of slipping residential spending. Sales of new homes have been trending higher, and inventories are being trimmed, so it's likely that we'll see some improvement in residential outlays before long. Spending on commercial projects manages a nice 0.5% increase, making it four gains in a row, but it looks as though the short-term spate of public-works spending is over, as those projects saw 1.3% fewer dollar for the month.

Despite a little up and down wobble this week, interest rates and mortgage rates are not going anywhere fast. We did see an expected fall in mortgage rates this week, perhaps just a little more than expected, but that's probably not going to be repeated next week. Given that underlying interest rates have been largely steady, this week's decline may have been due to a continuing slackening in demand for mortgage money, as the Mortgage Bankers Association reported fourth consecutive weekly decline in new applications for mortgage, with most of the falloff coming from refinancing activity.