Statistical Tables | | REARVIEW MIRROR REFLECTING SOFTER PATCH

Trends at a Glance
(Single-family Homes)
  Feb 19 Jan 19 Feb 18
Average Price: $817,875 $748,255 $775,372
Median Price: $645,000 $591,000 $602,000
Home Sales: 505 480 592
DOM: 39 45 31
SP/LP Ratio: 100.4% 99.0% 101.5%
(Condos/Townhomes)
  Feb 19 Jan 19 Feb 18
Average Price: $500,183 $465,001 $522,011
Median Price: $440,000 $429,975 $460,000
Home Sales: 171 130 172
DOM: 32 41 24
SP/LP Ratio: 100.0% 99.2% 103.2%

Upcoming Tech IPOs to Boost Prices

2019 is slated to produce a long list of multi-billion-dollar IPOs from San Francisco Bay Area heavyweights like Lyft, Uber, Palantir, Pinterest, Airbnb, Slack, Postmates, and Instacart. The result will be a massive and sudden injection of liquid cash into a region already infamous for having the nation’s priciest real estate, according to Patrick Howell O'Neill, writing for Gizmodo.

One of the projections in his article is the IPOs will produce 211 techie buyers to purchase property above $10 million, while thousands more are expected to buy above $1 million.

While these IPOs won’t have as much effect in Contra Costa County, nevertheless, people do commute from here to Silicon Valley.

To read the full article, go to https://tinyurl.com/y45rc6qy

Home Sales Anemic

Sales of single-family, re-sale homes were down 14.7% year-over-year. That is the seventh month in a row sales were down year-over-year.

Condo sales were off 0.6% year-over-year. That’s the fifth month in a row condo sales were down year-over-year. They were up 31.5% from January.

The average sales price for homes in Contra Costa County rose 9.3% from January. Year-over-year, it was up 5.5%. The median sales price rose 9.1% from January, and it was up 7.1% year-over-year.

The median sales price for condos was up 2.3% from January, but it was down 4.3% year-over-year. The average price was up 7.6% from January, but it was down 4.2% year-over-year.

Days on market, or how long it takes to go from being listed to being under contract, was thirty-nine days for homes and thirty-two for condos.

Momentum Statistics

Sales momentum…

for single-family homes fell 1.4 points to –6.6.

Pricing momentum…

for single-family homes fell 0.1 of a point to +5.9.

Our momentum statistics are based on 12-month moving averages to eliminate monthly and seasonal variations.

We calculate…

momentum by using a 12-month moving average to eliminate seasonality. By comparing this year's 12-month moving average to last year's, we get a percentage showing market momentum.  

In the chart below…

the blue area shows momentum for home sales while the red line shows momentum for pending sales of single-family, re-sale homes. The purple line shows momentum for the average price.

As you can see, pricing momentum has an inverse relationship to sales momentum.

Remember, the real estate market is a matter of neighborhoods and houses. No two are the same. For complete information on a particular neighborhood or property, call me.

P.S. The FHA requires all condo projects to be re-certified before they will make a loan. To find out if the condo project you're interested in is eligible, go here: https://entp.hud.gov/idapp/html/condlook.cfm.

The real estate market is very hard to generalize. It is a market made up of many micro markets. For complete information on a particular neighborhood or property, call me.

If I can help you devise a strategy, call or click the buying or selling link in the menu to the left.

Monthly Statistics

Complete monthly sales statistics for Contra Costa County are below. Monthly graphs are available for each city in the county.

February Sales Statistics
(Single-family Homes)
  Prices Units     Change from last year Change from last month
  Median Average Sold DOM SP/LP Median Average Sold Median Average Sold
County $645,000 $817,875 505 39 100.4% 7.1% 5.5% -14.7% 9.1% 9.3% 5.2%
Alamo $1,607,500 $1,850,966 12 19 99.0% -5.7% -2.9% 100.0% 6.3% 2.0% 33.3%
Antioch $450,000 $458,148 57 42 99.7% 0.8% 4.2% -25.0% 0.1% 2.1% -23.0%
Bay Point $425,000 $435,286 7 39 102.3% 34.9% 27.0% 40.0% 6.3% -8.3% -22.2%
Blackhawk $1,715,000 $1,825,727 11 38 97.8% 5.9% 20.4% 10.0% 22.3% 30.8% 83.3%
Brentwood $633,750 $614,700 44 45 99.3% 0.6% -2.9% -13.7% 1.6% 1.1% -2.2%
Clayton $795,000 $794,000 7 50 99.6% -5.4% -6.0% 16.7% 22.3% 6.0% -36.4%
Concord $605,000 $607,704 57 40 100.5% -0.8% -2.7% 3.6% 1.2% -2.6% 23.9%
Danville $1,380,000 $1,435,308 42 34 98.7% 0.0% -3.2% 13.5% 6.2% 7.1% 44.8%
Discovery Bay $594,500 $695,170 22 46 98.2% 9.1% 28.2% 22.2% -5.6% 7.6% 144.4%
El Cerrito $840,000 $916,500 10 42 111.1% -11.8% -11.8% 11.1% -6.5% 100.0% 100.0%
El Sobrante $472,500 $472,500 2 66 100.5% -31.5% -24.5% -71.4% -21.7% -23.2% -75.0%
Hercules $655,000 $684,200 5 37 101.5% 4.0% 2.8% -50.0% 3.3% 2.2% -44.4%
Kensington $1,562,500 $1,562,500 2 33 99.3% 35.4% 35.4% -50.0% 111.9% 111.9% 0.0%
Lafayette $1,705,000 $2,067,000 9 33 101.1% 27.7% 18.6% -10.0% -15.7% -6.5% 12.5%
Martinez $600,000 $602,938 16 67 100.4% -10.1% -16.9% -42.9% 5.3% 3.7% -15.8%
Moraga $1,362,500 $1,466,667 6 29 96.9% -19.9% -3.8% 20.0% 24.4% 33.9% 200.0%
Oakley $490,000 $508,164 21 37 100.3% 7.7% 9.9% -51.2% 0.6% 1.2% -22.2%
Orinda $1,565,000 $1,693,791 13 54 100.2% -1.1% -20.4% 85.7% 6.4% 16.8% 30.0%
Pinole $655,000 $648,333 6 31 99.9% 7.0% 8.5% 0.0% 11.0% 11.6% -14.3%
Pittsburg $430,044 $441,376 32 41 100.6% -9.9% -10.1% -36.0% -5.5% -4.2% -5.9%
Pleasant Hill $810,000 $850,289 19 37 101.4% -0.9% 4.0% 35.7% 1.3% 8.6% 46.2%
Richmond $507,000 $576,438 41 29 106.7% -7.0% 5.5% -8.9% 2.4% 14.3% 32.3%
Rodeo $499,500 $499,500 1 23 100.0% 15.4% 15.4% -50.0% -20.1% -19.2% -75.0%
San Ramon $1,130,000 $1,188,286 31 32 99.8% -6.0% -1.0% -3.1% -1.2% 1.2% 3.3%
Walnut Creek $1,103,500 $1,169,813 24 21 100.4% 1.2% 1.5% -41.5% 0.3% -1.3% 4.3%

 

February Sales Statistics
(Condos/Townhomes)
  Prices Units     Change from last year Change from last month
  Median Average Sold DOM SP/LP Median Average Sold Median Average Sold
County $440,000 $500,183 171 32 100.0% 2.3% 7.6% -0.6% 2.3% 7.6% 31.5%
Antioch $217,500 $223,106 18 33 98.2% 1.2% 10.8% 350.0% 1.2% 10.8% 157.1%
Concord $325,000 $333,947 19 27 99.8% -4.7% -2.7% -9.5% -4.7% -2.7% -17.4%
Danville $815,000 $794,222 9 23 101.3% 16.4% 7.3% 0.0% 16.4% 7.3% 28.6%
Hercules $366,000 $378,500 4 33 98.2% 6.1% 4.4% -42.9% 6.1% 4.4% 0.0%
Martinez $390,000 $388,188 8 37 100.1% -6.5% -6.9% 100.0% -6.5% -6.9% 300.0%
Moraga $958,500 $856,750 4 10 102.7% 115.4% 92.5% 33.3% 115.4% 92.5% 100.0%
Pleasant Hill $555,000 $536,389 9 34 98.1% 12.1% 11.2% -25.0% 12.1% 11.2% 28.6%
Richmond $401,450 $433,993 14 49 98.8% -11.8% -11.9% 16.7% -11.8% -11.9% 27.3%
San Pablo $326,500 $323,000 4 34 100.3% -5.2% -6.2% -33.3% -5.2% -6.2% 100.0%
San Ramon $618,000 $639,817 21 29 100.1% 10.0% 8.1% 40.0% 10.0% 8.1% 110.0%
Walnut Creek $545,000 $565,850 54 31 100.8% 2.3% 3.7% -14.3% 2.3% 3.7% 35.0%

REARVIEW MIRROR REFLECTING SOFTER PATCH

March 1, 2019 -- Although certain confirmations were delayed by the month-long government shutdown, there can be no doubt that economic activity in the fourth quarter of 2018 softened somewhat.

Data covering the end of that period is still trickling out, but December seems a long time ago now, and of course, things continue to change. Newer data covering January and February suggest relatively improving fortunes for the U.S. economy even as there are a number of headwinds.

In his semi-annual testimony before Congress this week, Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell noted that the picture has turned more mixed, saying that "Over the past few months we have seen some crosscurrents and conflicting signals," and adding that "Right now, the predominant risks to our economy are slowing global growth."

After the December rate hike further spooked already-unnerved financial markets, the Fed took great pains to explain that despite the increase, it had moved to a more patient, neutral stance. That message has been played at every opportunity, and soothed markets have since improved measurably. It was reiterated again this week by Mr. Powell.

"With our policy rate in the range of neutral, with muted inflation pressures and with some of the downside risks we've talked about, this is a good time to be patient and watch and wait and see how the situation evolves," he stated Tuesday before the Senate Banking Committee.

Amid the worst December for stock markets in about 90 years and the highest 30-year fixed mortgage rates in about 7, it's little wonder that housing starts plummeted during the month. An 11.2% decline in new residential construction was tallied during the month, with housing starts dropping to 1.078 million annualized units under construction. Single-family starts declined by 6.7%, falling to 758,000 while those for multi-family units slumped 20.4% to 320,000 units under construction. Permits for future activity were rather improved by comparison, rising by 0.3% to 1.326 million for the period. As well, builder sentiment also has improved of late, so the prospects for firmer activity seem pretty solid. We'll get the December report for sales of new homes on March 4, but there will have been two months of actual activity reflecting improving conditions since then.

Lower mortgage rates help home sales, of course. Since December's 7-year highs, 30-year fixed-rate mortgages have retreated to one-year lows, and that has sparked some interest. The National Association of Realtors noted that its Pending Home Sales Index rose by 4.6% in January compared to December, and with a 45- to 60-day lag to closing and recordation, it would seem that we'll start to see an upturn in existing home sales before long.

With the still-solid GDP report covering the fourth quarter leading the way, underlying interest rates that influence fixed-rate mortgages moved higher late in the week and mortgage rates are likely to follow. However, the GDP report is backward-looking and we're already two-thirds through the first quarter of 2019, where incoming data has generally has had a mixed-to-softer tone. With this in mind, while odds may favor firmer mortgage rates in the next week there will likely also be a bit of present-reality tempering in place. As such, we think that the average 30-year FRM as reported by Freddie Mac next Thursday will rise by perhaps just four or five basis points.