2008 San Diego County Annual Real Estate Market Report
San Diego County Property Sales Rose Sharply in the Second Half of 2008
Are you glad 2008 is over? We certainly are. It was an abysmal year, especially for real estate. Yet, in the last half of the year, we saw signs that the market was nearing the bottom of this cycle.
In San Diego County, the year ended with a month-over-month gain in median price for single-family, re-sale homes. December's price increase was the first gain in seventeen months. Also, year-over-year home sales increased each of the last eight months of the year. These are very positive signs.
Last year also saw a complete flip-flop in the market. In 2007, when the credit crunch first hit, sales in the entry-level market were trashed and the million dollar plus market made up an increasing share of total sales. In 2008, with the flood of bank-owned properties on the market, entry-level home sales surged while sales in the high-end slowed.
As we looked through the statistics, it was interesting to note that most of the price declines also happened in the lower end of the market, while the upper-end and move-up markets fared much better. As we've said before, the sharp increase in statistical prices from 2002 to 2004 was due to the increasing percentage of high-end homes being sold. Well, the sharp decrease in prices last year was due to the bulging number of low-end, bank-owned properties that were sold, along with a concomitant decrease in the number of high-end homes sold.
Take La Jolla and Rancho Santa Fe, for instance, home sales were down 28.9% and 24.1% respectively. That in the face of a 20.3% increase in total home sales for the county in 2008. The median price in these cities was down 14.3% in La Jolla and only 0.7% in Rancho Santa Fe. The average price was up in both cities.
On the flip side, cities like Oceanside and Escondido saw home sales rise 47.5% and 66.9% respectively. The median prices in these cities were down 30% and 33.4%.
We expect sales to continue to increase while prices will bounce along the bottom for the first half of the year. The secret to getting prices off the bottom is to get rid of the bank-owned properties. Increasing sales will eventually do that, as will some foreclosure relief to stop more homes from being taken back by the bank. We'll see what the new administration does on that.
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| San Diego County | ||||||||
| (Single Family Homes) | ||||||||
| Prices | Other | Percent Change | ||||||
| Average | Median | Sold | DOM | SP/LP | Average | Median | Sold | |
| 1998 | $271,178 | $203,995 | 23,960 | 54 | 96.6% | |||
| 1999 | $300,019 | $225,000 | 25,396 | 50 | 96.6% | 10.6% | 10.3% | 6.0% |
| 2000 | $356,975 | $260,000 | 23,878 | 43 | 96.7% | 19.0% | 15.6% | -6.0% |
| 2001 | $375,533 | $293,000 | 23,188 | 46 | 96.5% | 5.2% | 12.7% | -2.9% |
| 2002 | $442,102 | $355,000 | 26,276 | 44 | 96.6% | 17.7% | 21.2% | 13.3% |
| 2003 | $515,324 | $417,000 | 27,065 | 43 | 96.7% | 16.6% | 17.5% | 3.0% |
| 2004 | $653,099 | $535,000 | 26,344 | 36 | 96.6% | 26.7% | 28.3% | -2.7% |
| 2005 | $712,200 | $575,000 | 24,441 | 53 | 95.9% | 9.0% | 7.5% | -7.2% |
| 2006 | $728,574 | $575,000 | 18,723 | 65 | 95.4% | 2.3% | 0.0% | -23.4% |
| 2007 | $737,413 | $565,000 | 15,706 | 66 | 94.8% | 1.2% | -1.7% | -16.1% |
| 2008 | $530,880 | $400,000 | 18,891 | 66 | 95.1% | -28.0% | -29.2% | 20.3% |
| San Diego County | ||||||||
| (Condominiums) | ||||||||
| Prices | Other | Percent Change | ||||||
| Average | Median | Sold | DOM | SP/LP | Average | Median | Sold | |
| 1998 | $162,839 | $137,000 | 7,884 | 50 | 97.6% | |||
| 1999 | $169,647 | $139,900 | 11,757 | 42 | 97.9% | 4.2% | 2.1% | 49.1% |
| 2000 | $193,003 | $160,000 | 11,904 | 30 | 98.2% | 13.8% | 14.4% | 1.3% |
| 2001 | $227,460 | $189,900 | 11,297 | 33 | 97.9% | 17.9% | 18.7% | -5.1% |
| 2002 | $275,172 | $238,000 | 12,733 | 34 | 98.0% | 21.0% | 25.3% | 12.7% |
| 2003 | $321,906 | $280,000 | 13,840 | 36 | 97.8% | 17.0% | 17.6% | 8.7% |
| 2004 | $410,834 | $357,000 | 13,831 | 28 | 97.9% | 27.6% | 27.5% | -0.1% |
| 2005 | $440,966 | $384,990 | 13,783 | 53 | 97.3% | 7.3% | 7.8% | -0.3% |
| 2006 | $429,537 | $365,990 | 10,183 | 67 | 96.5% | -2.6% | -4.9% | -26.1% |
| 2007 | $419,037 | $355,000 | 8,966 | 66 | 95.8% | -2.4% | -3.0% | -12.0% |
| 2008 | $314,429 | $245,000 | 9,682 | 68 | 95.6% | -25.0% | -31.0% | 8.0% |
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DEFINITIONS
- Median Price
- Median Price is the price at which 50% of properties sold were above that price and 50% were below.
- Average Price
- Average Price is the sum of all prices divided by the number of sales.
- DOM
- Average Days on Market is calculated from when a property was first put on the market until it was put under contract, or taken off the market.
- SP/LP
- The average selling price divided by the average list price.
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