| Trends at a Glance | |||
| (Single-family Homes) | |||
| Apr 13 | Mar 13 | Apr 12 | |
| Median Price: | $433,000 | $395,000 | $345,000 |
| Average Price: | $536,514 | $467,346 | $469,837 |
| Home Sales: | 451 | 395 | 440 |
| Sale/List Price Ratio: | 99.1% | 98.8% | 96.0% |
| Days on Market: | 83 | 99 | 116 |
The median price for single-family, re-sale homes jumped 25.5% in April to reach $433,000. That is the highest it has been since April 2008.
The combination of high demand and low inventory will continue pushing prices higher. As of the 8th of the month, there were only 703 homes and condos for sale in Sonoma. At current rates of sale, that's a six week's supply. In a normal market we would see six month's supply!
We are seeing multiple offers on most homes being sold.
Since January 2012, the 3-month moving average median price has increased 26%. We are now 34% below the peak of the market: September 2005.
Sales of single-family, re-sale homes rose 14.2% from March, and were up 2.5% year-over-year.
The average price for homes went over $500,000 for the first time since May 2008. It was up 14.2% year-over-year.
The sales price to list price ratio was 99.1% last month, which is the highest it has been since August 2005.
| Sonoma County Price Differences | |||||
| from January 2012 & Peak & Trough | |||||
| Homes: detached | |||||
| YTD | Peak % | Trough % | Peak | Trough | |
| 3-month | 26% | -34% | 28% | Sep-05 | Apr-09 |
| 12-month | 14% | -38% | 14% | Jun-06 | May-12 |
| Homes: attached | |||||
| 3-month | 45% | -49% | 45% | Jul-06 | Jan-12 |
| 12-month | 24% | -53% | 24% | Jul-06 | Jan-12 |
for homes dropped 1.5 points to +6.3.
continued moving upward in April, for the eleventh month in a row, rising 1.3 points to +12.1.
momentum by using a 12-month moving average to eliminate seasonality. By comparing this year's 12-month moving average to last year's, we get a percentage showing market momentum.
the blue shows momentum for home sales while the purple line shows momentum for the median price for single-family, re-sale homes.
Sales were up 14.3% from March. Year-over-year, sales gained 10.3%.
The median price was up an astounding 53.2% compared to last April.
The sales price to list price ratio was 102.5% last month. The ratio has been over 100% for the past eight months.
This is an extraordinarily tough market for buyers. It's important to be calm and realistic. If you don't know what to do or where to begin, give me a call and let's discuss your situation and your options.
The tables below break-out the real estate statistics for Sonoma County and each city we track. Some cities are not included in the monthly statistics because sales volume is too low to ensure meaningful trends. Many of those cities are included in our Annual Trends section. (See menu to the left.)
| April Sales Statistics | ||||||||
| (Single-family Homes) | ||||||||
| Prices | Unit | Change from last year | ||||||
| Median | Average | Sales | DOM | SP/LP | Median | Average | Sales | |
| County | $433,000 | $536,514 | 451 | 83 | 99.1% | 25.5% | 14.2% | 2.5% |
| Bodega Bay | $558,824 | $606,758 | 9 | 166 | 92.5% | -32.3% | -25.9% | 28.6% |
| Cloverdale | $330,000 | $368,708 | 12 | 69 | 99.1% | 42.2% | -16.3% | 9.1% |
| Cotati | $460,000 | $488,333 | 3 | 34 | 101.0% | 53.8% | 52.4% | -57.1% |
| Forestville | $245,000 | $232,000 | 3 | 183 | 97.4% | 28.9% | 22.6% | 0.0% |
| Glen Ellen | $615,000 | $615,000 | 2 | 33 | 96.2% | 0.0% | -46.9% | -60.0% |
| Guerneville | $242,500 | $279,717 | 12 | 97 | 104.0% | 0.4% | 25.4% | 100.0% |
| Healdsburg | $659,000 | $850,300 | 21 | 76 | 95.9% | 12.6% | 8.0% | -8.7% |
| Penngrove | $654,500 | $654,500 | 2 | 51 | 99.3% | 19.0% | 22.7% | -33.3% |
| Petaluma | $491,000 | $537,423 | 51 | 70 | 99.0% | 31.8% | 29.2% | -12.1% |
| Rohnert Park | $346,000 | $357,572 | 29 | 58 | 102.1% | 6.5% | 13.7% | 38.1% |
| Santa Rosa | $410,000 | $485,998 | 188 | 77 | 100.2% | 37.1% | 15.6% | 0.5% |
| Sebastopol | $600,000 | $756,901 | 27 | 129 | 97.3% | -6.3% | 8.4% | 92.9% |
| Sonoma | $620,000 | $793,929 | 32 | 63 | 99.3% | 72.9% | 54.7% | -20.0% |
| Windsor | $426,000 | $468,301 | 27 | 68 | 100.8% | 25.7% | 27.0% | -34.1% |
| April Sales Statistics | ||||||||
| (Condos/Townhomes) | ||||||||
| Prices | Unit | Change from last year | ||||||
| Median | Average | Sales | DOM | SP/LP | Median | Average | Sales | |
| County | $215,250 | $224,237 | 64 | 72 | 102.5% | 53.2% | 35.3% | 10.3% |
| Rohnert Park | $185,500 | $188,293 | 15 | 75 | 103.4% | 37.9% | 29.0% | 50.0% |
| Santa Rosa | $210,000 | $215,378 | 29 | 78 | 101.7% | 64.7% | 48.5% | 31.8% |
| Sonoma | $238,500 | $262,250 | 4 | 42 | 95.8% | 6.0% | 16.6% | 100.0% |
To see pricing and trend graphs for individual cities in Sonoma County, click on the cities listed in the menu at the left.
May 3, 2013 -- A cascade of fresh economic data came out this week, variously reflecting economic conditions in both March and April. A "big picture" look at the data might lead one to an "economy is still troubled" conclusion despite the current 2.5 percent run rate for Gross Domestic Product.
Mortgage and other interest rates had been on a flat to easing trend for much of the week as most of the data did little to dispel the notion that we remain in a rough patch, one even the Federal Reserve implicitly acknowledged at the close of its meeting on Wednesday.
There was plenty of downbeat news available this week to create additional cause for concern, but one or two shining reports took the gloom out of the market, at least for now. Mortgage rates are likely to rise somewhat next week as a result.
HSH.com's broad-market mortgage tracker -- our weekly Fixed-Rate Mortgage Indicator (FRMI) -- found that the overall average rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages eased by four basis points (0.04%) to 3.61%, another new low for 2013 and close to "all-time" record lows set last year. The FRMI's 15-year companion dropped by three basis points (0.03%) to 2.86% for the week, another actual all-time low. FHA-backed 30-year FRMs followed along with a decline of two basis points (0.02%), falling to an average rate of 3.26% (record low by two basis points) and was accompanied by a three-hundredth of a percentage point slip in the overall average rate for 5/1 Hybrid ARMs, which trekked down to an average 2.57% - another new low water-mark for the most popular ARM.
As far as interest rates go, it took an accumulation of fair economic news over a period of months and some considerable market optimism about the economy's future to bump them up during the late winter and early spring. That trend did an about face over the last six weeks or so as the economic news turned darker. Is the employment report the start of a new spate of solid news, or simply a bright spot in an otherwise dim sky?
For the moment, the brighter employment picture on Thursday and Friday was sufficient to cause a reversal in the decline in interest rates. The influential 10-year Treasury bounced upward by more than a tenth-percentage point on Friday, so it's to be expected that at least some of that will show in mortgage rates as we round into next week. Many popular mortgages have been easing to record (or near record lows) but will move away from them next week, when a 5 or 6 basis point rise in HSH's FRMI seems most likely.
In Sonoma County, notices of default, the first step in the foreclosure process, continued rising for the second month in a row, jumping 38.5% in March from February. They were down 65.7% year-over-year.
Notices of sale, which set the date and time of an auction, and serve as the homeowner's final notice before sale, also rose in March, up 16.5% from February. Year-over-year, notices of sale were down 48%.
After the filing of a Notice of Trustee Sale, there are only three possible outcomes. First, the sale can be cancelled for reasons that include a successful loan modification or short sale, a filing error, or a legal requirement to re-file the notice after extended postponements, like bankruptcy.
Alternatively, if the property is taken to sale, the bank will place the opening bid. If a third party, typically an investor, bids more than the bank's opening bid, the property will be sold to the third party; if not, it will go back to the bank and become part of that bank's REO inventory.
In March, cancellations were up 19.9% from February. Year-over-year, cancellations were up 19.1%.
Properties going back-to-bank dropped 22.2% from February, and were down 73.1% year-over-year.
The total number of properties that have had a notice of default filed decreased by 60.9% compared to last year. They were down 13.2% from February.
The total number of properties scheduled for sale declined by 59.8% year-over-year. Properties scheduled for sale dropped 11.7% month-over-month.
The number of properties owned by the banks fell 4.8% from February, and were down 59.8% year-over-year. Banks now own about 638 properties in the county. At the current rate of sales, this is about a five weeks supply. Five to six months supply of total inventory signals a balanced market.
For further details and a city-by-city breakdown of foreclosure statistics, go to http://foreclosureradar.com.
For more detailed information on particular Sonoma County neighborhoods, contact me.
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Based on information from BAREIS for the period January, 1998 through January, 2009.