Statistical Tables | Mortgage News | Foreclosure statistics

Prices Continue to Rise

Trends at a Glance
(Single-family Homes)
  Jun 14 May 14 Jun 13
Median Price: $495,000 $485,500 $435,000
Average Price: $585,689 $607,413 $523,810
Home Sales: 467 440 471
Sale/List Price Ratio: 99.5% 99.9% 100.8%
Days on Market: 66 69 68

Low inventory and low mortgage rates are pushing prices higher.

The median price for single-family, re-sale homes in Sonoma County were up year-over-year for the twenty-fifth month in a row.

Nevertheless, we are still 21.2% below the peak price reached in August 2005.

June Market Statistics

The median price for homes gained 13.8% year-over-year and it was up 2% from May.

Single-family, re-sales home sales fell 0.8% year-over-year. That's thirteen months in a row home sales have been lower than the year before.

The sales price to list price ratio for homes was 99.5% last month.

Sonoma County Price Differences
from January 2013 & Peak & Trough
Homes: detached      
YTD Peak % Trough % Peak Trough
3-month 28.9% -21.2% 54.2% Aug-05 Apr-09
12-month 32.8% -22.3% 42.7% Jun-06 May-12
Homes: attached      
3-month 45.3% -32.9% 89.4% Jul-06 Jan-12
12-month 54.8% -34.5% 71.5% Jul-06 Jan-12

Sales Momentum…

for homes rose 1.2 points to -10.4.   (See chart below)

Pricing Momentum…

for single-family homes was down 0.7 of a point to 16.5. 

We Calculate…

momentum by using a 12-month moving average to eliminate seasonality. By comparing this year's 12-month moving average to last year's, we get a percentage showing market momentum.  

In the chart below…

the blue shows momentum for home sales while the purple line shows momentum for the median price for single-family, re-sale homes.

Condo Statistics…

The median price of condos gained 3.7% from May. Year-over-year, the median price was up 2.6%.

Condo sales dropped 8.9% compared to last June.

The sale price to list price ratio stayed over 100% for the fifth month in a row: 102.1%. It has been over 100% for twenty-one of the past twenty-two months.

This is an extraordinarily tough market for buyers. It's important to be calm and realistic. If you don't know what to do or where to begin, give me a call and let's discuss your situation and your options.

Monthly Statistics

The tables below break-out the real estate statistics for Sonoma County and each city we track. Some cities are not included in the monthly statistics because sales volume is too low to ensure meaningful trends. Many of those cities are included in our Annual Trends section. (See menu to the left.)

June Sales Statistics
(Single-family Homes)
  Prices Unit     Change from last year
  Median Average Sales DOM SP/LP Median Average Sales
County $495,000 $585,689 467 66 99.5% 13.8% 11.8% -0.8%
Bodega Bay $622,000 $686,500 3 48 100.0% 0.3% 1.4% -40.0%
Cloverdale $329,000 $375,056 9 39 101.7% -6.0% 0.4% -25.0%
Cotati $497,000 $538,188 8 59 99.1% 24.6% 43.4% 14.3%
Forestville $261,250 $274,817 6 59 99.8% -18.4% -24.4% -45.5%
Glen Ellen $645,000 $645,000 2 56 100.2% -31.7% -42.1% -60.0%
Guerneville $390,000 $418,509 15 80 96.9% 56.9% 58.7% 50.0%
Healdsburg $667,500 $829,750 20 49 100.1% -13.6% -5.8% 66.7%
Penngrove $807,500 $870,125 8 106 99.4% 31.1% 47.0% 166.7%
Petaluma $575,000 $608,096 56 53 100.4% 12.3% 14.0% -11.1%
Rohnert Park $405,000 $419,438 25 51 101.2% 1.3% 0.9% 19.0%
Santa Rosa $445,500 $518,475 202 59 100.2% 9.9% 13.8% 8.6%
Sebastopol $718,438 $749,579 30 83 99.6% 10.5% 0.9% 20.0%
Sonoma $582,500 $888,611 38 66 96.6% 4.3% 27.4% -26.9%
Windsor $465,324 $569,231 23 124 96.6% 9.5% 25.0% -25.8%

 

June Sales Statistics
(Condos/Townhomes)
  Prices Unit     Change from last year
  Median Average Sales DOM SP/LP Median Average Sales
County $261,000 $261,522 51 59 102.1% 2.6% -2.1% -8.9%
Rohnert Park $234,000 $222,947 9 49 100.9% 28.6% 14.6% -30.8%
Santa Rosa $249,500 $252,980 25 60 102.8% -5.7% 4.6% 56.3%
Sonoma $326,500 $327,000 4 109 98.5% -22.6% -11.0% 0.0%

To see pricing and trend graphs for individual cities in Sonoma County, click on the cities listed in the menu at the left.

 

The Mortgage Report

July 3, 2014 -- As it has for much of the spring, the economy seems to be maintaining an upward path. Coupled with a forgiving Federal Reserve slowing removing policy accommodation, this has resulted in record highs for major stock market indices, while the global investor search for yield and to keep funds out of harm's way has helped U.S. interest rates to remain low.

We find ourselves in a very interesting position as the recovery seems to finally be coming into its own. With only about $35 billion left to trim, the Federal Reserve will complete its exit from QE in just three more meetings, with an expected late October closure of the program. After that, Fed officials and official forecasts suggest it may be six months before the Fed begins to adapt interest rate policies to the new economic reality.

If present growth trends persist between now and the end of the program we will probably get something shorter than a six-month period in which to prepare, especially if inflation tracks upward during this time. Even if the Fed chooses to do nothing during this window, markets will certainly have made adjustments in preparation, lifting rates, and the Fed will probably be acting reactively at that point rather than proactively.

For now, and likely through the summer, we may see data-driven bumps and dips in rates. Although we managed a slight dip presently, a bump is in order before long.

HSH.com's broad-market mortgage tracker -- our weekly Fixed-Rate Mortgage Indicator (FRMI) -- found that the overall average rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages decreased by two basis points (0.02%), easing back to 4.19% and very close to 2014 lows. Meanwhile, the FRMI's 15-year companion slid by just one basis point to drift to 3.42%. Popular FHA-backed 30-year FRMs backed off by four basis points, drifting down to 3.91%, as these fully-insured offerings continue to beat conforming 30-year FRMs by almost a quarter percentage point. Finally, the overall 5/1 Hybrid ARM declined by another three basis points, landing at 3.06% for the first week of the third quarter.

Foreclosure statistics

In Sonoma County, notices of default, the first step in the foreclosure process, dropped 19.8% in May from April. Year-over-year, notices were down 43%.

Notices of sale, which set the date and time of an auction, and serve as the homeowner's final notice before sale, rose 8.2% in May from April. Year-over-year, notices were down 39.8%.

After the filing of a Notice of Trustee Sale, there are only three possible outcomes. First, the sale can be cancelled for reasons that include a successful loan modification or short sale, a filing error, or a legal requirement to re-file the notice after extended postponements, like bankruptcy.

Alternatively, if the property is taken to sale, the bank will place the opening bid. If a third party, typically an investor, bids more than the bank's opening bid, the property will be sold to the third party; if not, it will go back to the bank and become part of that bank's REO inventory.

In May, cancellations were down 17.4% from April. Year-over-year, cancellations were off 61.2%. There were 38 cancellations.

Properties going back-to-bank fell 50% from April. Ten properties went back to banks in May. Year-over-year, back-to-bank properties were down 44.4%.

The total number of properties that have had a notice of default filed fell by 15.1% compared to last year. They were up 2.3% from April.

The total number of properties scheduled for sale declined by 46% year-over-year. Properties scheduled for sale fell 3% month-over-month.

The number of properties owned by the banks dropped 2.3% from April, and they were down 22.1% year-over-year. Banks now own about 429 properties in the county. At the current rate of sales, this is about four week's supply.

For further details and a city-by-city breakdown of foreclosure statistics, go to http://propertyradar.com.

For more detailed information on particular Sonoma County neighborhoods, contact me.