| Trends at a Glance | |||
| (Single-family Homes) | |||
| May 13 | Apr 13 | May 12 | |
| Median Price: | $618,697 | $569,558 | $463,355 |
| Average Price: | $485,000 | $468,000 | $340,000 |
| Home Sales: | 933 | 913 | 1,183 |
| DOM: | 25 | 27 | 46 |
| Sold Price/List Price Ratio | 103.6% | 103.7% | 99.2% |
Let's run down some numbers, shall we?
The sold price to list price ratio has been over 100% since July 2012. Being over 100% means many buyers are paying more than the asking price.
Homes are selling quickly also. The average days on market in May was 25. Since January 2005, the average days on market has been 45.
Home prices have moved up rather rapidly. Last year, the median price for homes was in the $300,000 range for most of the year. Since February, the median price has been in the $400,000 range, and it was $485,000 last month.
All signs point to a cappuccino with extra foam.
Sales of single-family, re-sale homes were down 21.1% year-over-year. That is certainly not due to lack of demand. Inventory levels are woeful.
The median sales price was up 42.5% year-over-year. That's the six month in a row the median price has been higher by double-digits.
The average price went over $600,000 in May, a place it hasn't been since 2008.
| Contra Costa County Price Differences | |||||
| from January 2012 & Peak & Trough | |||||
| Homes: detached | |||||
| YTD | Peak % | Trough % | Peak | Trough | |
| 3-month | 58% | -30% | 88% | Jul-07 | Mar-09 |
| 12-month | 16% | -41% | 29% | Oct-07 | Sep-09 |
| Homes: attached | |||||
| 3-month | 68% | -32% | 96% | Jun-07 | Feb-12 |
| 12-month | 30% | -44% | 35% | Jul-06 | Feb-12 |
for single-family, re-sale homes in Contra Costa County plunged 3.7 points to -13.9. (See chart below)
gained 2.8 points to +16.9.
momentum by using a 12-month moving average to eliminate seasonality. By comparing this year's 12-month moving average to last year's, we get a percentage showing market momentum.
the blue area shows momentum for home sales while the red line shows momentum for pending sales of single-family, re-sale homes. The purple line shows momentum for the average price.
As you can see, pricing momentum has an inverse relationship to sales momentum.
The median sales price for re-sale condos has been gaining ground by leaps and bounds. It has increased by double-digits for the past nine months.
The median price jumped 64.1% last month.
Condo sales were down 0.4%, year-over-year, with 282 condos sold in May.
As with homes, the sales price to list price ratio has been over 100% for the past eleven months and twelve out of the past thirteen months. It was 105.7% last month.
Condos are also being snapped up quickly. The average days on market last month was 27. The average since January 2005 is 50.
Notices of default, the first step in the foreclosure process, in Contra Costa County, fell 0.3% in May from April. Year-over-year, notices were down 52.8%, according to PropertyRadar.com.
Notices of sale fell 6.2% from April. They were down 58.3% year-over-year.
After the filing of a Notice of Trustee Sale, there are only three possible outcomes. First, the sale can be cancelled for reasons that include a successful loan modification or short sale, a filing error, or a legal requirement to re-file the notice after extended postponements.
Alternatively, if the property is taken to sale, the bank will place the opening bid. If a third party, typically an investor, bids more than the bank's opening bid, the property will be sold to the third party; if not, it will go back to the bank and become part of that bank's REO inventory.
In March, cancellations were off 19.3% year-over-year.
Properties that went back to the bank rose 14.7% from April, but were down 74.8% year-over-year.
The total number of properties that have had a notice of default filed dropped by 11.7% from April. Year-over-year, notices were off 52.9%.
The total number of homes scheduled for sale decreased by 1.4% from April, and were down 65.9% year-over-year.
The total number of homes owned by the banks dropped 5.6% from April, and they were down 44.8% year-over-year.
Banks own approximately 1,237 homes in Contra Costa County.
Remember, the real estate market is a matter of neighborhoods and houses. No two are the same. For complete information on a particular neighborhood or property, call me.
P.S. The FHA requires all condo projects to be re-certified before they will make a loan. To find out if the condo project you're interested in is eligible, go here: https://entp.hud.gov/idapp/html/condlook.cfm.
The real estate market is very hard to generalize. It is a market made up of many micro markets. For complete information on a particular neighborhood or property, call me.
If I can help you devise a strategy, call or click the buying or selling link in the menu to the left.
Complete monthly sales statistics for Contra Costa County are below. Monthly graphs are available for each city in the county.
| March Sales Statistics | |||||||||||
| (Single-family Homes) | |||||||||||
| Prices | Units | Change from last year | Change from last month | ||||||||
| Median | Average | Sold | DOM | SP/LP | Median | Average | Sold | Median | Average | Sold | |
| County | $487,000 | 611,590 | 606 | 24 | 101.8% | 77.1% | 57.5% | -42.9% | 17.3% | 12.3% | 45.7% |
| Alamo | $1,100,848 | 1,128,877 | 15 | 25 | 98.6% | 5.7% | -1.4% | -21.1% | -20.4% | -18.2% | 25.0% |
| Antioch | $282,000 | 284,159 | 51 | 30 | 102.6% | 50.0% | 50.1% | -63.8% | 0.8% | 4.9% | -10.5% |
| Bay Point | $128,500 | 192,500 | 6 | 31 | 98.1% | -29.8% | 21.4% | -53.8% | -37.5% | -24.0% | -14.3% |
| Blackhawk | $999,980 | 1,081,544 | 11 | 59 | 99.5% | -13.2% | -8.6% | 37.5% | -23.5% | -19.3% | 175.0% |
| Brentwood | $399,750 | 417,863 | 38 | 27 | 101.5% | 28.1% | 31.9% | -63.8% | -8.5% | -15.8% | 0.0% |
| Clayton | $667,500 | 658,000 | 10 | 15 | 102.8% | 36.2% | 42.0% | -9.1% | 7.2% | 11.1% | 66.7% |
| Concord | $365,000 | 386,405 | 71 | 17 | 104.1% | 23.0% | 22.2% | -39.8% | -1.4% | 1.7% | 51.1% |
| Danville | $951,000 | 1,032,793 | 41 | 25 | 100.7% | 29.6% | 30.8% | -29.3% | 13.9% | 16.8% | 41.4% |
| Discovery Bay | $440,000 | 512,029 | 21 | 33 | 97.7% | 48.4% | 49.9% | 5.0% | 13.4% | 5.4% | 61.5% |
| El Cerrito | $613,000 | 616,332 | 16 | 17 | 111.6% | 79.2% | 79.2% | -5.9% | 7.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| El Sobrante | $360,000 | 349,714 | 7 | 18 | 102.7% | 60.0% | 34.9% | -58.8% | 34.1% | 30.2% | 250.0% |
| Hercules | $382,000 | 412,439 | 8 | 17 | 103.6% | 20.1% | 25.1% | -60.0% | -8.0% | 4.1% | 60.0% |
| Kensington | $880,000 | 878,500 | 5 | 17 | 103.7% | -15.7% | -15.7% | 150.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| Lafayette | $1,297,000 | 1,355,236 | 28 | 35 | 100.1% | 62.1% | 48.6% | 3.7% | 11.4% | -4.6% | 460.0% |
| Martinez | $430,000 | 416,405 | 21 | 14 | 102.5% | 61.3% | 42.5% | -47.5% | 19.4% | 2.3% | 5.0% |
| Moraga | $1,050,000 | 1,104,846 | 13 | 18 | 100.6% | 25.1% | 25.3% | -23.5% | -8.1% | -12.3% | 116.7% |
| Oakley | $290,000 | 286,494 | 18 | 27 | 101.6% | 39.6% | 36.1% | -71.0% | 5.5% | -1.7% | 5.9% |
| Orinda | $1,000,000 | 1,199,808 | 13 | 27 | 102.9% | 8.7% | 28.4% | -31.6% | 8.8% | 12.6% | 30.0% |
| Pinole | $315,000 | 316,583 | 12 | 18 | 102.2% | 23.5% | 24.5% | -36.8% | 7.7% | 4.2% | 200.0% |
| Pittsburg | $256,000 | 295,582 | 24 | 16 | 101.8% | 34.8% | 50.7% | -65.2% | 6.7% | 17.1% | 26.3% |
| Pleasant Hill | $540,500 | 571,713 | 24 | 22 | 103.5% | 22.1% | 30.0% | -7.7% | 3.4% | 7.1% | 100.0% |
| Richmond | $275,000 | 273,594 | 49 | 28 | 105.1% | 100.7% | 64.7% | -47.9% | 10.0% | 1.2% | 69.0% |
| Rodeo | $340,000 | 326,625 | 4 | 42 | 100.7% | 70.0% | 95.1% | -55.6% | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| San Ramon | $783,000 | 855,815 | 53 | 15 | 101.8% | 7.1% | 12.6% | -8.6% | -2.7% | -1.6% | 152.4% |
| Walnut Creek | $793,000 | 813,243 | 38 | 21 | 101.9% | 20.2% | 26.7% | 8.6% | 12.5% | 1.7% | 18.8% |
| March Sales Statistics | |||||||||||
| (Condos/Townhomes) | |||||||||||
| Prices | Units | Change from last year | Change from last month | ||||||||
| Median | Average | Sold | DOM | SP/LP | Median | Average | Sold | Median | Average | Sold | |
| County | $301,075 | 330,101 | 158 | 19 | 105.2% | 0.4% | 1.5% | 32.8% | 0.4% | 1.5% | 32.8% |
| Antioch | $86,000 | 89,386 | 7 | 31 | 103.3% | 79.2% | 76.0% | 0.0% | 79.2% | 76.0% | 0.0% |
| Concord | $140,000 | 149,344 | 16 | 33 | 103.8% | -6.7% | 10.0% | 220.0% | -6.7% | 10.0% | 220.0% |
| Danville | $582,700 | 521,550 | 8 | 11 | 105.4% | 6.4% | -3.0% | -42.9% | 6.4% | -3.0% | -42.9% |
| Hercules | $155,000 | 161,333 | 3 | 8 | 101.9% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| Martinez | $305,000 | 264,967 | 3 | 51 | 100.6% | 39.0% | 17.6% | -50.0% | 39.0% | 17.6% | -50.0% |
| Moraga | $600,000 | 571,250 | 4 | 14 | 104.8% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| Pleasant Hill | $410,000 | 365,773 | 11 | 18 | 110.6% | 188.7% | 139.1% | 266.7% | 188.7% | 139.1% | 266.7% |
| Richmond | $225,000 | 252,600 | 5 | 8 | 100.6% | -18.9% | 9.2% | 25.0% | -18.9% | 9.2% | 25.0% |
| San Pablo | $128,400 | 149,700 | 4 | 14 | 104.7% | 15.7% | 8.8% | -20.0% | 15.7% | 8.8% | -20.0% |
| San Ramon | $452,250 | 468,256 | 16 | 18 | 105.7% | -20.7% | -11.4% | 6.7% | -20.7% | -11.4% | 6.7% |
| Walnut Creek | $325,000 | 361,973 | 69 | 18 | 105.3% | 12.5% | 17.0% | 38.0% | 12.5% | 17.0% | 38.0% |
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