Statistical Tables | A Bit Of Turbulence

Trends at a Glance
(Single-family Homes)
  Sep 21 Aug 21 Sep 20
Average Price: $1,163,939 $1,164,185 $982,708
Median Price: $875,000 $880,000 $785,000
Home Sales: 1,013 1,080 1,189
DOM: 15 14 21
SP/LP Ratio: 105.7% 107.8% 103.0%
(Condos/Townhomes)
  Sep 21 Aug 21 Sep 20
Average Price: $653,981 $641,238 $564,773
Median Price: $608,500 $585,000 $518,750
Condo Sales: 262 298 280
DOM: 19 16 25
SP/LP Ratio: 103.4% 103.8% 100.6%

Sales Dip in September

After twelve months of home sales being higher than the year before, sales of single-family, re-sale homes fell 14.8% year-over-year. There were 1,013 homes sold last month. The average monthly sales since 2005 is 907.

The median sales price for single-family, re-sale homes was up 11.5% compared to last September, but, it was down 0.6% from August.

The average sales price rose 18.4% year-over-year.

The sales price to list price ratio for homes fell to 105.7% from 107.8%.

Days on market, or how long it takes to go from being listed to being under contract, for homes rose one day to fifteen days.

The median sales price for condos set a new high last month. It was up 4% from August, and it was up 17.3% year-over-year. The average sales price also set a new record. It was up 2% from August, and it was up 15.8% year-over-year.

Condo sales were down 12.1% from August, and they were down 6.4% year-over-year. There were 262 condo sales last month.

The sales price to list price ratio for condos fell to 103.4% from 103.8%.

Days on market, or how long it takes to go from being listed to being under contract, rose from sixteen days to nineteen days for condos. 

Momentum Statistics

Sales momentum…

for single-family homes fell 3.3 points to +37.5.

Pricing momentum…

for single-family homes fell 0.6 of a point to +18.2.

Our momentum statistics are based on 12-month moving averages to eliminate monthly and seasonal variations.

We calculate…

momentum by using a 12-month moving average to eliminate seasonality. By comparing this year's 12-month moving average to last year's, we get a percentage showing market momentum.  

In the chart below…

the blue area shows momentum for home sales while the red line shows momentum for pending sales of single-family, re-sale homes. The purple line shows momentum for the average price.

As you can see, pricing momentum has an inverse relationship to sales momentum.

Remember, the real estate market is a matter of neighborhoods and houses. No two are the same. For complete information on a particular neighborhood or property, call me.

P.S. The FHA requires all condo projects to be re-certified before they will make a loan. To find out if the condo project you're interested in is eligible, go here: https://entp.hud.gov/idapp/html/condlook.cfm.

The real estate market is very hard to generalize. It is a market made up of many micro markets. For complete information on a particular neighborhood or property, call me.

If I can help you devise a strategy, call or click the buying or selling link in the menu to the left.

Monthly Statistics

Complete monthly sales statistics for Contra Costa County are below. Monthly graphs are available for each city in the county.

September Sales Statistics
(Single-family Homes)
  Prices Units     Change from last year Change from last month
  Median Average Sold DOM SP/LP Median Average Sold Median Average Sold
County $875,000 $1,163,939 1,013 15 105.7% 11.5% 18.4% -14.8% -0.6% 0.0% -6.2%
Alamo $2,500,000 $2,778,125 24 17 106.7% 13.6% 24.2% -4.0% -7.4% 2.3% 33.3%
Antioch $600,000 $609,091 97 14 104.7% 11.1% 11.2% -14.2% -7.0% -5.7% -19.8%
Bay Point $600,888 $647,899 11 10 105.6% 37.2% 34.6% -15.4% -3.1% 2.4% -26.7%
Blackhawk $2,225,000 $2,225,000 1 7 111.3% 53.4% 27.7% -90.9% 29.7% 21.9% -90.9%
Brentwood $806,250 $865,696 96 15 101.9% 19.4% 22.1% -17.2% 2.7% 4.4% -7.7%
Clayton $1,200,000 $1,189,897 15 14 109.8% 30.8% 24.0% 7.1% 25.0% 15.1% 15.4%
Concord $800,000 $847,507 119 16 104.0% 10.3% 12.2% -9.2% -0.1% 1.5% 21.4%
Danville $2,000,000 $2,183,682 74 14 103.9% 34.7% 38.9% -35.1% 6.0% 2.2% -7.5%
Discovery Bay $799,444 $838,597 34 18 100.0% 14.2% 5.4% -33.3% -3.8% -7.5% 41.7%
El Cerrito $1,350,000 $1,319,538 13 15 125.9% 13.3% 13.3% -48.0% 9.4% -58.1% -58.1%
El Sobrante $775,400 $819,960 15 12 110.9% 8.4% 23.8% 0.0% 2.3% 6.1% 0.0%
Hercules $858,000 $858,250 16 11 105.3% 19.2% 15.6% 23.1% -8.5% -9.0% 6.7%
Kensington $1,275,000 $1,308,750 4 19 132.3% -27.7% -27.7% 0.0% -23.0% -23.0% -60.0%
Lafayette $1,756,500 $1,811,358 40 12 104.7% 4.9% -1.1% 0.0% -4.1% -14.0% 11.1%
Martinez $800,000 $881,769 47 18 103.9% 6.4% 11.7% -14.5% -1.8% 4.3% 14.6%
Moraga $2,000,000 $2,094,333 15 11 108.8% 39.4% 48.7% 0.0% 17.3% 17.1% 0.0%
Oakley $697,000 $696,056 54 20 103.0% 23.7% 20.4% -6.9% 2.4% 1.5% -6.9%
Orinda $1,850,500 $2,263,817 30 15 106.8% 7.1% 25.1% -6.3% -2.9% 13.1% -36.2%
Pinole $726,500 $737,900 10 24 106.5% 6.1% 7.9% -28.6% -3.1% -5.9% -9.1%
Pittsburg $642,500 $663,556 40 17 106.1% 24.7% 27.8% -31.0% -0.4% 5.7% 0.0%
Pleasant Hill $970,000 $1,053,222 38 14 105.8% 0.9% 10.7% 11.8% -10.8% -4.6% 2.7%
Richmond $707,500 $726,384 58 22 106.4% 11.4% 11.2% -13.4% -8.7% -6.6% -1.7%
Rodeo $681,500 $622,625 4 34 101.1% 19.6% 9.2% 300.0% 2.1% -4.4% -60.0%
San Ramon $1,650,000 $1,776,298 71 12 107.9% 25.2% 29.5% -2.7% -9.0% -4.6% -6.6%
Walnut Creek $1,420,000 $1,492,014 62 13 107.7% 16.6% 11.5% -20.5% 1.4% 0.1% -4.6%

September Sales Statistics
(Condos/Townhomes)
  Prices Units     Change from last year Change from last month
  Median Average Sold DOM SP/LP Median Average Sold Median Average Sold
County $608,500 $653,981 262 19 103.4% 4.0% 2.0% -6.4% 4.0% 2.0% -12.1%
Antioch $335,000 $340,057 7 19 101.1% 45.7% 26.0% 16.7% 45.7% 26.0% 0.0%
Concord $430,000 $478,865 43 15 102.9% 3.0% 7.2% 43.3% 3.0% 7.2% 13.2%
Danville $1,075,000 $1,021,214 7 13 107.0% 15.0% 5.6% -63.2% 15.0% 5.6% -65.0%
Hercules $440,000 $490,345 11 22 104.7% -4.3% 6.4% -26.7% -4.3% 6.4% -15.4%
Martinez $710,000 $635,890 11 10 103.3% 42.0% 21.9% -35.3% 42.0% 21.9% -26.7%
Moraga $766,944 $815,135 14 21 104.6% -27.0% -12.2% 40.0% -27.0% -12.2% 27.3%
Pleasant Hill $622,500 $566,700 10 19 100.6% -11.1% -16.6% 0.0% -11.1% -16.6% -37.5%
Richmond $601,000 $570,044 20 20 102.8% 6.4% 9.2% 17.6% 6.4% 9.2% 17.6%
San Pablo $510,000 $510,000 1 8 105.2% 9.1% 8.1% -85.7% 9.1% 8.1% -87.5%
San Ramon $752,250 $826,118 34 13 104.9% -22.8% -8.9% -2.9% -22.8% -8.9% 21.4%
Walnut Creek $635,000 $702,916 89 22 102.4% 4.7% 7.0% -3.3% 4.7% 7.0% -13.6%

A Bit Of Turbulence

October 1, 2021 -- As often seems to be the case, a late-September range of crosscurrents have hit the financial markets, Of late, investors have had their choice of worries on which to focus, including political theater in Washington over spending, funding the government and raising the debt ceiling, the ever-changing economic climate, actual and possible turnover at the Fed, present COVID trends and impacts, inflation worries and more. With the change of seasons, it's clear that summer's relative quiet is behind us, and the climate has intensified a bit.

The final look at GDP growth the second quarter was revealed this week, and looking in the rearview mirror at the period that ended three months ago we see a robust economy that posted a 6.7% annual growth rate. Delta's deceleration of activity in the third quarter -- just closed yesterday -- will probably leave growth for Q3 at perhaps 4% or less (the latest run rate -- with much of September's data yet to be incorporated -- is 3.2%, according to the GDPNow tracker at the Atlanta Fed). Some growth that was expected to take place in the third quarter was likely delayed due to Delta, but some may have been lost, since at least the traditional vacation season has passed.

The yearlong uptrend in inflation may be leveling off, but there are no signs of any abatement. The Personal Income and Personal Consumption Expenditures report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis revealed that overall PCE prices rose another 0.4% in August, lifting the top line annual run rate another tenth of a percentage point to 4.3% for the month. Core PCE (the Fed's preferred price gauge) increased another 0.3% in August, the same as seen in July, and holding the annual rate of core PCE inflation at 3.6% for a third consecutive month. The Fed's stated goal is to see core PCE routinely running at about 2% or perhaps a little above it, and three months at a rate some 80% above target is something that no doubt concerns the Fed. It still expects price increases to be "transitory" but they are seemingly starting to prove a little more intractable than the Fed expected.

Construction spending failed to post an increase or decline in August, coming in unchanged from July's levels. The drag all came from the commercial sector, which declined by a full 1% during the period, it's weakest showing since February. Residential construction continues to shine, and rose by another 0.4%, a thirteenth gain in the last 14 months. Outlays for public-works projects also managed a second consecutive gain of 0.5%, as road work and education-related spending increased during the month.

Applications for mortgage credit eased back by 1.1% in the week ending September 24, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association, as requests for both purchase-money mortgages (-1.2%) and those for refinancing (-0.9%) declined. With mortgage rates bumping higher this week after a very flat summer pattern, refi activity will probably tail off again, but purchase requests shouldn't be dented too much by the minor rise in rates. With regard to home purchases, the National Association of Realtors reported an 8.1% increase in their Pending Home Sales Index for August; inasmuch as there were increases in purchase applications for three of the four weeks in August, that stands to reason. So far this month, there have been increases in purchase apps in two of the four weeks, so we could see some additional purchase activity as we move into the fall, too, especially since inventories of homes available to buy have been in a mild improving trend over the last couple of months.