Statistical Tables | Mounting Concerns

Home Prices Mixed, Sales Down Year-Over-Year

The median sales price for single-family, re-sale homes was flat year-over-year. It was up 7.1% from January.

The average sales price of single-family, re-sale homes fell 1.3% year-over-year. It was up 7.6% from January.

Sales of single-family, re-sale homes were down 0.4% year-over-year. There were 453 homes sold last month. The average monthly sales since 2005 is 907.

The sales price to list price ratio for homes rose to 102.5% from 100.4%.

Days on market, or how long it takes to go from being listed to being under contract, was twenty-seven days.

The median sales price for condos was down 19% from January, and it was down 3.5% year-over-year. The average sales price was up 1.7% year-over-year.

Condo sales were down 0.8% from January, and they were down 16.8% year-over-year. There were 119 condo sales last month.

The sales price to list price ratio for condos fell from 101.3% to 100.6%.

Days on market, or how long it takes to go from being listed to being under contract, was thirty-nine days for condos.

Momentum Statistics

Sales momentum…
for single-family homes fell 1 point to +4.8.

Pricing momentum…
for single-family homes fell 0.8 of a point +2.

Our momentum statistics are based on 12-month moving averages to eliminate monthly and seasonal variations.

This is an extraordinarily tough market for buyers. It's important to be calm and realistic. If you don't know what to do or where to begin, give me a call and let's discuss your situation and your options.

If you’re looking to sell, call me for a comprehensive Comparative Market Analysis.

Our momentum statistics are based on 12-month moving averages to eliminate monthly and seasonal variations.

We calculate…

momentum by using a 12-month moving average to eliminate seasonality. By comparing this year's 12-month moving average to last year's, we get a percentage showing market momentum.  

In the chart below…

the blue area shows momentum for home sales while the red line shows momentum for pending sales of single-family, re-sale homes. The purple line shows momentum for the average price.

As you can see, pricing momentum has an inverse relationship to sales momentum.

Remember, the real estate market is a matter of neighborhoods and houses. No two are the same. For complete information on a particular neighborhood or property, call me.

P.S. The FHA requires all condo projects to be re-certified before they will make a loan. To find out if the condo project you're interested in is eligible, go here: https://entp.hud.gov/idapp/html/condlook.cfm.

The real estate market is very hard to generalize. It is a market made up of many micro markets. For complete information on a particular neighborhood or property, call me.

If I can help you devise a strategy, call or click the buying or selling link in the menu to the left.

Monthly Statistics

Complete monthly sales statistics for Contra Costa County are below. Monthly graphs are available for each city in the county.

February Sales Statistics
(Single-family Homes)
	Prices		Units			Change from last year			Change from last month
	Median	Average	Sold	DOM	SP/LP	Median	Average	Sold	Median	Average	Sold
County	$840,000	$1,107,629	453	27	102.5%	0.0%	-1.3%	-0.4%	7.1%	7.6%	33.2%
Alamo	$2,563,888	$3,027,778	5	56	100.3%	28.2%	32.1%	-28.6%	16.5%	32.2%	-28.6%
Antioch	$600,000	$620,211	56	30	101.1%	-5.8%	-3.4%	-13.8%	1.7%	1.6%	9.8%
Bay Point	$469,000	$550,800	5	25	99.3%	-25.6%	-11.7%	0.0%	-14.7%	4.7%	25.0%
Blackhawk	$2,225,000	$2,225,000	1	7	111.3%	53.4%	27.7%	-90.9%	29.7%	21.9%	-90.9%
Brentwood	$837,000	$902,032	32	29	99.8%	-2.7%	3.5%	-33.3%	-0.4%	4.0%	3.2%
Clayton	$1,115,000	$1,111,286	7	13	102.6%	-5.5%	-15.1%	16.7%	24.9%	24.4%	600.0%
Concord	$876,000	$953,726	53	22	103.7%	2.7%	5.8%	-3.6%	4.3%	12.2%	35.9%
Danville	$2,184,000	$2,307,061	32	19	101.8%	4.0%	6.7%	28.0%	10.0%	-2.4%	60.0%
Discovery Bay	$772,500	$910,488	18	37	99.1%	-5.3%	-7.6%	50.0%	4.5%	11.0%	28.6%
El Cerrito	$1,187,500	$1,249,494	12	29	116.2%	-15.6%	-15.6%	0.0%	-1.3%	100.0%	100.0%
El Sobrante	$682,500	$736,500	8	48	101.0%	-9.6%	0.5%	-11.1%	-7.8%	-4.6%	14.3%
Hercules	$880,000	$877,000	9	27	102.4%	-1.5%	1.2%	12.5%	-9.7%	-10.0%	350.0%
Kensington	$1,225,000	$1,313,000	5	14	115.8%	-7.0%	-7.0%	150.0%	-31.4%	-31.4%	66.7%
Lafayette	$1,900,000	$2,627,800	10	24	101.9%	-23.4%	-1.5%	-41.2%	-13.2%	22.0%	100.0%
Martinez	$757,500	$830,833	18	28	101.7%	-12.8%	-5.1%	38.5%	-4.0%	1.9%	5.9%
Moraga	$2,185,000	$1,911,000	5	8	99.7%	26.4%	-3.7%	0.0%	28.5%	11.6%	66.7%
Oakley	$667,500	$690,402	26	33	99.8%	-0.2%	-2.2%	36.8%	-4.6%	-6.1%	36.8%
Orinda	$2,415,000	$2,486,900	10	12	105.7%	8.5%	-1.8%	-9.1%	23.8%	27.8%	150.0%
Pinole	$850,000	$787,000	11	38	103.9%	21.4%	10.6%	266.7%	3.3%	-10.8%	83.3%
Pittsburg	$612,500	$645,978	28	43	101.0%	-2.0%	1.5%	33.3%	9.4%	19.6%	33.3%
Pleasant Hill	$1,253,000	$1,198,600	10	32	101.4%	23.5%	6.5%	0.0%	11.1%	4.8%	25.0%
Richmond	$708,000	$750,195	45	21	106.9%	-1.7%	0.3%	9.8%	6.5%	16.9%	95.7%
Rodeo	$705,000	$705,000	2	10	99.4%	-8.3%	-8.3%	100.0%	-1.4%	3.3%	-66.7%
San Ramon	$1,816,500	$1,738,949	12	9	99.5%	-1.8%	-5.0%	-45.5%	0.9%	-11.6%	-20.0%
Walnut Creek	$1,650,000	$1,604,187	17	12	101.9%	13.8%	2.7%	-19.0%	8.9%	-5.7%	6.3%

February Sales Statistics
(Condos/Townhomes)
	Prices		Units			Change from last year			Change from last month
	Median	Average	Sold	DOM	SP/LP	Median	Average	Sold	Median	Average	Sold
County	$541,000	$669,761	119	39	100.6%	-3.2%	1.7%	-16.8%	-19.0%	-13.7%	-0.8%
Antioch	$333,000	$327,000	5	50	99.6%	-6.2%	0.8%	-54.5%	-28.4%	-12.8%	66.7%
Concord	$382,000	$403,608	22	30	100.1%	-11.2%	-6.8%	10.0%	-8.0%	-7.5%	100.0%
Danville	$1,252,000	$1,162,333	6	15	101.3%	7.9%	6.1%	-25.0%	19.2%	5.7%	-25.0%
Hercules	$615,000	$615,000	2	10	105.7%	51.9%	42.8%	-33.3%	11.8%	6.5%	-60.0%
Martinez	$456,250	$475,875	4	12	101.0%	-6.9%	-19.0%	-55.6%	-22.4%	-17.6%	-50.0%
Moraga	$645,000	$783,750	4	26	100.4%	-3.6%	-20.8%	33.3%	-11.3%	11.4%	0.0%
Pleasant Hill	$624,950	$617,990	5	62	99.8%	-3.1%	-9.1%	-28.6%	9.9%	10.8%	25.0%
Richmond	$449,000	$596,667	6	86	106.6%	-16.1%	18.6%	-40.0%	-27.6%	3.8%	-14.3%
San Pablo	$415,000	$415,000	1	90	97.6%	-14.4%	-4.6%	-66.7%	16.6%	15.6%	-75.0%
San Ramon	$1,202,500	$1,080,375	8	22	100.9%	3.0%	-0.1%	-33.3%	8.3%	8.8%	-38.5%
Walnut Creek	$758,500	$726,840	42	31	100.2%	15.1%	4.4%	-16.0%	-13.0%	-27.3%	16.7%

Mounting Concerns

February 28, 2025 -- Long-term yields moved lower this week, which should help mortgage rates retreat back to at least early December levels. Unfortunately, what drove yields and rates lower appears to be growing concern about the strength of the economy going forward. In recent weeks, there's already been evidence of uncertainty or unease regarding the impacts of changes to tariff and immigration policies, which have now been joined by headlines of many tens of thousands of federal workers being laid off. Headlines of mass firings can be unnerving and certainly add to the feeling of discomfort.

There is essentially no momentum to be seen in the housing market. We wrote about housing's winter chill and builder blues in last week's MarketTrends, but there was more coldness to be added to that this week. Sales of new homes in January slumped by 10.5%, falling from an upwardly-revised 734,000 annual pace to just a 657,000 one. The drop in sales saw inventory levels balloon back up to a nine month's supply at the present rate of sale, with the 495,000 units available the highest supplies have been since December 2007. More supply and less demand should have helped to temper prices but didn't, as the median price of a new home sold rose to $446,300, up 7.6% compared to December and 3.7% above year-ago levels. It's too soon to say, but the increase may be early signs of the impact of tariffs on the many goods that go into building a new house.

Perhaps the market for existing homes can be expected to improve? Probably not, at least not in the near term. The Pending Home Sales Index from the National Association of Realtors -- a measure of signed contracts to buy -- followed up a 4.1% decline in December with another 4.6% drop in January, leaving this index at its lowest level ever (the series began in 2021). The December drop was partly or mostly reflected in January's 4.9% decline in existing home sales to a 4.08 million annual pace, and this new PHSI decline makes it likely that a drop back to perhaps a 3.90 million rate will be seen when February sales are tallied. After that, we'll need to see if the recent decline in mortgage rates spurs any buyers into the market to start the spring homebuying season. Our guess is "some".

Applications for mortgage credit certainly aren't improving, either. The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that requests for home loans eased another 1.2% in the week ending February 21. Applications for loans to finance home purchases rose by 0.2%, a bare improvement but the first increase since mid-January, while demand for loans to refinance existing mortgages slid by 3.6%. We may see a little increase in refinancing activity for the last week of February, goosed by slightly lower mortgage rates.

It's always been the case that bad news brings lower interest rates. To be sure, we aren't seeing "bad" news of late per se, but rather news that's simply not as good as it was. The economy is growing, albeit likely at a slower pace. The labor market is still strong, and should remain so overall despite federal job cuts. Prices for certain items are still rising, but some of this may be offset in time with lower fuel costs, and lower interest rates can help ameliorate the effects of higher prices, too. Things may not seem great right now, but they certainly aren't bleak by any measure.

Still, disappointment in where things are and where they seem to be going does have some effect, and the decline in bond yields this week will help lower mortgage rates next week. That may spread a little cheer, at least among those inclined to obtain or refinance a mortgage, so that's something. We think that the average offered rate for a conforming 30-year fixed-rate mortgage as reported by Freddie Mac will fall by about nine basis points next week, possibly a bit more. We'll know when the next update for rates comes out Thursday amid the first-week-of-the-month blitz of data.

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