Statistical Tables | Core Three Point Four

Trends at a Glance
(Single-family Homes)
  Jun 21 May 21 Jun 20
Average Price: $1,243,943 $1,273,392 $942,864
Median Price: $960,000 $1,000,000 $750,000
Home Sales: 1,241 1,132 641
DOM: 13 11 27
SP/LP Ratio: 110.0% 110.2% 100.5%
(Condos/Townhomes)
  Jun 21 May 21 Jun 20
Average Price: $642,786 $650,319 $554,536
Median Price: $567,500 $600,000 $495,000
Condo Sales: 388 334 147
DOM: 15 16 30
SP/LP Ratio: 106.1% 105.6% 99.6%

Sales Continue to Surge

Sales of single-family, re-sale homes rose 9.6% from May. They were up 93.6% year-over-year. There were 1,241 homes sold last month. The average monthly sales since 2005 is 907.

The median sales price for single-family, re-sale homes was up 28% compared to last June, but, it was down 4% from May.

The average sales price rose 31.9% year-over-year. It fell 2.3% from May.

The sales price to list price ratio for homes fell to 110% from 110.2%.

Days on market, or how long it takes to go from being listed to being under contract, for homes rose two days to thirteen days.

The median sales price for condos was down 5.4% from May, but, it was up 14.6% year-over-year. The average sales was down 1.2% from May, bit, it was up 15.9% year-over-year.

Condo sales were up 16.2% from May, and, they were up 163.9% year-over-year. There were 388 condo sales last month.

The sales price to list price ratio for condos rose to 106.1% from 105.6%.

Days on market, or how long it takes to go from being listed to being under contract, dropped from sixteen days to fifteen days for condos.

Momentum Statistics

Sales momentum…

for single-family homes rose 7.7 points to +23.4.

Pricing momentum…

for single-family homes rose 1.1 points to +19.9.

Our momentum statistics are based on 12-month moving averages to eliminate monthly and seasonal variations.

We calculate…

momentum by using a 12-month moving average to eliminate seasonality. By comparing this year's 12-month moving average to last year's, we get a percentage showing market momentum.  

In the chart below…

the blue area shows momentum for home sales while the red line shows momentum for pending sales of single-family, re-sale homes. The purple line shows momentum for the average price.

As you can see, pricing momentum has an inverse relationship to sales momentum.

Remember, the real estate market is a matter of neighborhoods and houses. No two are the same. For complete information on a particular neighborhood or property, call me.

P.S. The FHA requires all condo projects to be re-certified before they will make a loan. To find out if the condo project you're interested in is eligible, go here: https://entp.hud.gov/idapp/html/condlook.cfm.

The real estate market is very hard to generalize. It is a market made up of many micro markets. For complete information on a particular neighborhood or property, call me.

If I can help you devise a strategy, call or click the buying or selling link in the menu to the left.

Monthly Statistics

Complete monthly sales statistics for Contra Costa County are below. Monthly graphs are available for each city in the county.

June Sales Statistics
(Single-family Homes)
  Prices Units     Change from last year Change from last month
  Median Average Sold DOM SP/LP Median Average Sold Median Average Sold
County $960,000 $1,243,943 1,241 13 110.0% 28.0% 31.9% 93.6% -4.0% -2.3% 9.6%
Alamo $2,665,000 $3,001,522 40 20 103.0% 13.3% 26.9% 150.0% 10.6% 12.0% 25.0%
Antioch $615,000 $631,034 108 21 109.0% 25.9% 26.9% 61.2% -1.6% 0.0% 21.3%
Bay Point $570,000 $568,955 11 18 107.4% 28.5% 37.7% 175.0% -18.3% -13.1% -15.4%
Blackhawk $1,715,000 $1,825,727 11 38 97.8% 5.9% 20.4% 10.0% 22.3% 30.8% 83.3%
Brentwood $850,000 $839,844 130 13 105.9% 31.8% 25.7% 100.0% 6.9% 2.2% 30.0%
Clayton $1,200,000 $1,208,452 21 7 110.3% 39.5% 30.8% 110.0% 5.7% 2.4% 110.0%
Concord $881,000 $906,011 115 9 111.0% 26.8% 29.1% 101.8% 5.2% 4.4% 3.6%
Danville $2,000,000 $2,089,632 101 8 110.9% 41.5% 36.2% 71.2% 5.3% 1.8% 1.0%
Discovery Bay $825,000 $916,443 41 20 102.4% 29.6% 34.5% 46.4% -2.9% -5.0% -21.2%
El Cerrito $1,350,000 $1,343,111 20 15 128.8% 29.0% 29.0% 42.9% 0.6% -4.8% -4.8%
El Sobrante $755,000 $759,417 18 11 111.5% 69.5% 50.7% 350.0% 2.7% 1.2% 50.0%
Hercules $931,250 $926,144 18 7 113.9% 27.4% 21.5% 100.0% 9.2% 3.4% 28.6%
Kensington $1,725,000 $1,738,500 12 11 130.1% 60.0% 60.0% 500.0% 2.1% 2.1% 71.4%
Lafayette $1,875,000 $2,059,601 46 9 110.8% 13.6% 20.3% 253.8% -14.8% -12.8% 7.0%
Martinez $907,500 $953,107 56 10 108.8% 35.4% 41.9% 124.0% 5.5% 8.7% 43.6%
Moraga $1,718,000 $1,845,231 13 14 113.7% 21.4% 18.4% -13.3% -9.8% -5.5% -50.0%
Oakley $650,000 $653,190 62 18 106.9% 22.8% 21.1% 82.4% -3.7% -8.9% 37.8%
Orinda $2,200,000 $2,425,586 43 10 108.3% 16.4% 25.1% 87.0% 5.8% 5.8% -12.2%
Pinole $785,000 $787,429 21 18 113.0% 35.3% 24.5% 133.3% -5.6% -4.7% 16.7%
Pittsburg $620,000 $616,968 49 15 109.8% 31.7% 27.3% 88.5% 6.9% 0.2% 32.4%
Pleasant Hill $1,185,000 $1,148,891 30 9 114.5% 41.9% 28.4% 66.7% 1.3% -2.0% -9.1%
Richmond $708,000 $739,662 76 19 113.8% 21.5% 21.3% 100.0% 4.1% 2.4% 20.6%
Rodeo $700,000 $691,000 5 23 105.0% 27.3% 25.6% 150.0% 14.8% 0.7% -28.6%
San Ramon $1,630,000 $1,773,266 95 8 112.7% 35.6% 42.9% 126.2% 4.5% 5.8% -6.9%
Walnut Creek $1,475,000 $1,565,762 85 10 110.0% 17.5% 28.6% 80.9% -3.8% 0.8% 10.4%

June Sales Statistics
(Condos/Townhomes)
  Prices Units     Change from last year Change from last month
  Median Average Sold DOM SP/LP Median Average Sold Median Average Sold
County $567,500 $642,786 388 15 106.1% -5.4% -1.2% 163.9% -5.4% -1.2% 16.2%
Antioch $375,000 $370,571 7 9 105.7% 21.0% 16.6% -12.5% 21.0% 16.6% 0.0%
Concord $407,350 $437,504 50 16 105.2% -0.6% 0.3% 233.3% -0.6% 0.3% 51.5%
Danville $1,105,000 $1,039,280 24 8 111.9% 21.2% 9.6% 140.0% 21.2% 9.6% 14.3%
Hercules $492,500 $500,418 12 16 107.0% -5.7% -7.2% 50.0% -5.7% -7.2% -14.3%
Martinez $601,838 $612,876 19 9 109.7% 7.5% 10.8% 111.1% 7.5% 10.8% 26.7%
Moraga $811,000 $861,846 13 9 107.6% -22.8% -10.9% 116.7% -22.8% -10.9% 44.4%
Pleasant Hill $567,500 $581,970 10 19 105.9% -14.0% -8.5% 11.1% -14.0% -8.5% -33.3%
Richmond $575,500 $563,427 30 19 104.1% -4.9% -4.6% 650.0% -4.9% -4.6% 30.4%
San Pablo $367,500 $370,167 6 14 104.4% -8.1% -0.2% 200.0% -8.1% -0.2% 20.0%
San Ramon $712,500 $792,099 46 8 107.7% 0.7% 2.5% 170.6% 0.7% 2.5% 0.0%
Walnut Creek $569,000 $645,077 134 21 103.7% -9.5% -3.8% 162.7% -9.5% -3.8% 18.6%

Core Three Point Four

July 2, 2021 -- Things here in the U.S. are in a far better place at the turn of midyear compared to where they began. Post holidays, and through mid-winter, COVID-19 was raging anew and widespread vaccination efforts just getting underway. Hundreds of thousands of new cases were being reported daily, and health care systems were again struggling to keep up. Despite the viral surge, and amid both continuing and new restrictions, the economy was recovering well, but unevenly, necessitating several new rounds of fiscal support to accompany the Fed's all-in stance for monetary policy.

Fast forward six months and the picture is very changed, if not completely. Despite a new Delta variant that threatens to become an echo surge, reported cases of coronavirus are running at levels comparable to the very first days of the outbreak. Inoculation rates have slowed of late, but something on the order of 55% of eligible Americans have had at least one dose of a vaccine, and about 47% are fully vaccinated.

Spurred on by re-opening, removal of restriction and blasts of cash from the federal government, the economy again accelerated, with GDP growth running a 6.4% annual rate in the first quarter and a current estimate of over 7% in the second quarter. Although job growth overall may be a little less robust than some forecasts may have expected, about 3.2 million people have rejoined the workforce over the last six months, and claims for all forms of jobless assistance have retreated from well over 1 million claims every week to something less than half that.

Another facet that has changed appreciably in the last six months is the inflation picture. At the turn of the year, inflation was still tame, with inflation as measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditure series running at just a 1.4% rate in both "headline" and core reckonings. Five months on (June data not available until July's end), these figures are 3.9% and 3.4%, with price increases now at 13- and 29-year highs, respectively.

With a strong economy in place and core prices now above the Fed's 2% target for the last couple of months, the Fed is starting to make rumblings about future changes in policy. At the turn of the year, the official stance was that rock-bottom rates and QE-style bond-buying programs would run indefinitely, and Fed members didn't expect to be raising the federal funds rate until perhaps 2024. Six months later, no changes have yet occurred, but the Fed is said to be discussing the tapering of bond buying (Our guess: later this year) and estimates of when a change to interest rate policy will come have advanced into 2023, with a majority of Fed members expecting not one but perhaps two increases in short-term rates by that time.

Change has come rapidly across some very important components of the current environment. Surprisingly, long-term interest rates and mortgage rates have been well behaved, rising from record lows to start the year, increasing by about a half-percentage point, then settling back to approximately the middle of this range and holding there for 12 weeks now. Although fewer remain in the eligible pool, this has continued to allow homeowners to refinance profitably or extract cash from their homes. For homebuyers, it has been both a blessing and a curse, since even as they can help to keep monthly payments relatively affordable, low rates continue to fuel demand for homes for which there is little supply, in turn pushing the prices of homes ever higher.

With challenges facing both new and existing home markets, sales of homes have been a little soggy of late, if still at historically sound levels. However, there is at least one indicator that suggests that sales may pick up a bit again, as the National Association of Realtors Pending Home Sales Index for May rose by 8% for the month. This measure of signed sales contracts presages the actual tally of homes sold by a month or two, since it takes time to get from contact signing to closing. Sales of existing homes have been generally cooling this year; after peaking at an annual rate of 6.73 million last October they have settled to May's 5.8 million pace. The bump in signed contracts in May should push this figure up a bit by July, even if not all deals actually come to fruition.

Despite very stable mortgage rates, applications for mortgage credit dropped off by 6.9% in the week ending June 25. Requests for purchase-money mortgages slid by 4.8% while those for refinancing retreated by 8.2%. With conditions in mortgage markets largely unchanged, there doesn't seem to be any specific reason for the drop in requests for financing; looking back at the same weeks over the last five years it seems as though there is often a dip in applications in around this time of the year. Perhaps with many schools coming to the end of the academic year folks simple have other things to do, or perhaps vacations beckon. Whatever the reason, fundamentals for mortgages haven't changed all that much, but with the Independence Day holiday now upon us, we may not see an uptick in applications for a week or more yet.