Statistical Tables | Saying Little, Speaking Volumes
| Trends at a Glance | |||
| (Single-family Homes) | |||
| Aug 26 | Jul 26 | Aug 25 | |
| Average Price: | $1,190,640 | $1,251,906 | $1,141,345 |
| Median Price: | $850,915 | $900,000 | $855,000 |
| Home Sales: | 613 | 673 | 653 |
| DOM: | 28 | 25 | 30 |
| SP/LP Ratio: | 101.3% | 102.4% | 100.5% |
| (Condos/Townhomes) | |||
| Aug 26 | Jul 26 | Aug 25 | |
| Average Price: | $631,357 | $686,839 | $720,608 |
| Median Price: | $520,000 | $583,750 | $649,000 |
| Condo Sales: | 160 | 166 | 168 |
| DOM: | 45 | 45 | 35 |
| SP/LP Ratio: | 100.0% | 99.6% | 99.5% |
The median sales price for single-family, re-sale homes was up 2.4%
year-over-year. It was up 1.7% from July.
The average sales price of single-family, re-sale homes rose 9.5%
year-over-year. It was up 4.4% from July.
Sales of single-family, re-sale homes were down 6.1% year-over-year. There were
613 homes sold last month. The average monthly sales since 2005 is 907.
The sales price to list price ratio for homes fell from 101.3% to 100.3%.
Days on market, or how long it takes to go from being listed to being under
contract, was thirty-two days.
The median sales price for condos was down 19.9% year-over-year. The average
sales price was down 12.4% year-over-year.
Condo sales were down 4.8% year-over-year. There were 160 condo sales last
month.
The sales price to list price ratio for condos rose from 99.6% to 100%.
Days on market, or how long it takes to go from being listed to being under
contract, was forty-five days for condos.
Sales momentum…
for single-family homes rose 0.1 of a point to +2.8.
Pricing momentum…
for single-family homes stayed at –1.0.
Our momentum statistics are based on 12-month moving averages to eliminate
monthly and seasonal variations.
This is an extraordinarily tough market for buyers. It's important to be calm
and realistic. If you don't know what to do or where to begin, give me a call
and let's discuss your situation and your options.
If you’re looking to sell, call me for a comprehensive Comparative Market
Analysis.
Our momentum statistics are based on 12-month moving averages to eliminate monthly and seasonal variations.
momentum by using a 12-month moving average to eliminate seasonality. By comparing this year's 12-month moving average to last year's, we get a percentage showing market momentum.
the blue area shows momentum for home sales while the red line shows momentum for pending sales of single-family, re-sale homes. The purple line shows momentum for the average price.
As you can see, pricing momentum has an inverse relationship to sales momentum.
Remember, the real estate market is a matter of neighborhoods and houses. No two are the same. For complete information on a particular neighborhood or property, call me.
P.S. The FHA requires all condo projects to be re-certified before they will make a loan. To find out if the condo project you're interested in is eligible, go here: https://entp.hud.gov/idapp/html/condlook.cfm.
The real estate market is very hard to generalize. It is a market made up of many micro markets. For complete information on a particular neighborhood or property, call me.
If I can help you devise a strategy, call or click the buying or selling link in the menu to the left.
Complete monthly sales statistics for Contra Costa County are below. Monthly graphs are available for each city in the county.
| August Sales Statistics | |||||||||||
| (Single-family Homes) | |||||||||||
| Prices | Units | Change from last year | Change from last month | ||||||||
| Median | Average | Sold | DOM | SP/LP | Median | Average | Sold | Median | Average | Sold | |
| County | $865,000 | $1,242,606 | 613 | 32 | 100.3% | 2.4% | 9.5% | -6.1% | 1.7% | 4.4% | -8.9% |
| Alamo | $3,200,000 | $3,406,857 | 21 | 22 | 99.5% | 32.0% | 34.2% | 10.5% | 12.9% | 2.0% | 40.0% |
| Antioch | $611,000 | $607,150 | 58 | 22 | 101.7% | -0.2% | 0.0% | -23.7% | 1.8% | -0.3% | -22.7% |
| Bay Point | $610,000 | $623,250 | 4 | 41 | 97.5% | 9.9% | 15.7% | -50.0% | 9.2% | 8.3% | -60.0% |
| Blackhawk | $2,225,000 | $2,225,000 | 1 | 7 | 111.3% | 53.4% | 27.7% | -90.9% | 29.7% | 21.9% | -90.9% |
| Brentwood | $782,500 | $835,820 | 72 | 48 | 98.9% | 2.3% | -1.2% | 60.0% | 1.9% | 0.0% | -2.7% |
| Clayton | $1,134,000 | $1,100,977 | 10 | 30 | 100.2% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 11.1% | 0.4% | -2.7% | 11.1% |
| Concord | $757,500 | $794,220 | 57 | 27 | 99.5% | -10.4% | -11.8% | 1.8% | -6.2% | -9.4% | -23.0% |
| Danville | $2,120,000 | $2,443,756 | 43 | 33 | 98.9% | 1.0% | 6.1% | 10.3% | -2.3% | -3.1% | -4.4% |
| Discovery Bay | $795,500 | $884,700 | 17 | 67 | 94.9% | 2.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -6.4% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| El Cerrito | $1,200,000 | $1,235,154 | 13 | 22 | 120.2% | -7.1% | -7.1% | 44.4% | -2.0% | -13.3% | -13.3% |
| El Sobrante | $670,000 | $731,545 | 11 | 18 | 105.5% | -3.9% | -2.5% | -31.3% | -17.3% | -5.0% | -15.4% |
| Hercules | $895,000 | $882,620 | 5 | 26 | 101.8% | 9.8% | 2.7% | 0.0% | 0.1% | -1.2% | 150.0% |
| Kensington | $899,000 | $1,133,000 | 3 | 96 | 103.1% | -27.6% | -27.6% | 0.0% | -28.8% | -28.8% | -40.0% |
| Lafayette | $1,830,000 | $2,048,919 | 27 | 24 | 101.1% | 1.7% | 5.1% | 0.0% | -0.5% | -5.8% | -3.6% |
| Martinez | $929,000 | $940,232 | 19 | 26 | 99.2% | 12.8% | -4.6% | -32.1% | 15.0% | 4.6% | -44.1% |
| Moraga | $1,756,888 | $1,794,749 | 11 | 17 | 102.3% | 8.3% | 10.8% | 83.3% | 6.3% | -4.0% | 83.3% |
| Oakley | $665,000 | $699,139 | 43 | 40 | 99.6% | 3.9% | 5.6% | -12.2% | -4.9% | -1.8% | 16.2% |
| Orinda | $1,790,000 | $2,569,658 | 13 | 34 | 101.9% | 15.5% | 36.5% | -23.5% | -2.4% | 14.8% | -27.8% |
| Pinole | $765,000 | $773,333 | 12 | 32 | 102.2% | 14.2% | 3.2% | 20.0% | -2.9% | -1.5% | 50.0% |
| Pittsburg | $600,000 | $597,400 | 25 | 30 | 101.3% | 0.2% | -4.3% | -13.8% | 6.1% | 5.2% | -21.9% |
| Pleasant Hill | $854,500 | $1,109,583 | 12 | 19 | 101.0% | -18.8% | 2.0% | -40.0% | -36.7% | -15.1% | -52.0% |
| Richmond | $650,000 | $675,949 | 27 | 25 | 103.1% | -2.6% | -4.6% | -43.8% | 4.8% | -4.0% | -22.9% |
| Rodeo | $749,500 | $752,250 | 4 | 31 | 100.0% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 100.0% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 33.3% |
| San Ramon | $1,700,000 | $1,822,951 | 43 | 28 | 99.0% | -2.9% | 1.2% | 4.9% | 1.2% | 8.6% | 16.2% |
| Walnut Creek | $1,600,000 | $1,672,012 | 41 | 28 | 100.6% | 1.6% | 2.8% | -18.0% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 20.6% |
| August Sales Statistics | |||||||||||
| (Condos/Townhomes) | |||||||||||
| Prices | Units | Change from last year | Change from last month | ||||||||
| Median | Average | Sold | DOM | SP/LP | Median | Average | Sold | Median | Average | Sold | |
| County | $520,000 | $631,357 | 160 | 45 | 100.0% | -19.9% | -12.4% | -4.8% | -10.9% | -8.1% | -3.6% |
| Antioch | $333,000 | $310,091 | 11 | 56 | 100.8% | 4.9% | -2.5% | 175.0% | -11.6% | -14.4% | 83.3% |
| Concord | $285,000 | $354,837 | 19 | 47 | 96.7% | -29.6% | -21.3% | -13.6% | -24.0% | -5.4% | 5.6% |
| Danville | $1,130,000 | $1,031,029 | 14 | 23 | 99.0% | 14.1% | -5.0% | -6.7% | 0.4% | -14.8% | 0.0% |
| Hercules | $450,000 | $456,667 | 3 | 9 | 101.3% | -19.6% | -19.5% | -40.0% | -2.2% | -5.1% | -62.5% |
| Martinez | $675,000 | $615,714 | 7 | 33 | 101.2% | 3.8% | -3.7% | -22.2% | 14.4% | -4.1% | 16.7% |
| Moraga | $712,500 | $712,500 | 2 | 12 | 100.4% | -26.9% | -24.3% | -50.0% | 1.8% | -4.2% | -33.3% |
| Pleasant Hill | $601,500 | $586,083 | 6 | 43 | 100.9% | -2.5% | -1.5% | -33.3% | 5.2% | -2.7% | -45.5% |
| Richmond | $413,000 | $542,667 | 12 | 74 | 101.1% | -14.0% | 1.4% | 9.1% | -17.0% | 13.2% | -14.3% |
| San Pablo | $515,000 | $485,000 | 3 | 44 | 108.3% | 5.5% | 23.0% | 0.0% | 41.1% | 42.8% | 0.0% |
| San Ramon | $1,100,000 | $960,089 | 10 | 37 | 99.7% | 30.5% | 5.1% | -41.2% | 50.7% | 20.1% | -23.1% |
| Walnut Creek | $626,500 | $679,777 | 56 | 44 | 100.4% | -13.6% | -18.9% | 19.1% | -16.0% | -15.9% | -6.7% |
August 28, 2026 -- Even after 100 days in
office, little has been revealed about how Fed Chair Kevin Warsh feels about the
stance of monetary policy and the economic conditions he inherited. We have come
to learn that he isn't a proponent of providing "forward guidance", where the
Fed reveals its hand regarding near-term policy expectations. However, we
haven't learned much about his so-called "reaction function" or expected policy
response when presented with a given set of economic conditions.
As far as forward guidance
goes, Mr. Warsh said "Forward guidance [...] was adopted by my colleagues and me
during the Global Financial Crisis. It was essential at the time [...] but, as
with other legacies of crises past, I believe that the practice has overstayed
its welcome. In normal times, the role of forward guidance should be limited and
circumscribed." Later, he added "I'm not alone in noticing that forward guidance
in 2021, to cite one example, might well have slowed the policy response to high
inflation."
Mr. Warsh apparently believes
in providing forward guidance when warranted, but not as a regular or routine
communication tool. In his speech, he expressed concerns that setting market
expectations can lead to policy errors, as they recently may have.
The National Activity Index
from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago suggests that the economy ran at a
sub-optimal level in July. Using an equilibrium rate of zero, the NAI seeks to
show if the economy is growing above or below its "potential", or ability to
grow without throwing off imbalances like inflation. While "potential" is a
moving target, it's reckoned to be a GDP rate of perhaps as high as 2.4% but
possibly as low as 1.8%. The NAI's -0.08 mark for July says growth was slightly
below potential, and if potential is currently closer to the high end of the
range, perhaps the FRB/NY's Nowcast is close to the mark on growth at present.
Personal incomes rose by 0.4%
in July. Income growth was lifted by a 0.3% increase in wages, but also
bolstered by a 0.5% rise in proprietor incomes, a gain of 0.3% in rental
property receipts, a half-point gain in investment returns and another sizable
(+0.8%) increase in government transfer payments for medicare, medicaid social
security and such. While incomes were up for the month, spending was not, as
real personal consumption expenditures were unchanged. Less outgo than income
meant more available for the piggy bank, and the national rate of savings
improved by 0.4% to an improved (though still weak) 3% rate.
As might be expected, sales of
new homes were soggy in July. The Census Bureau reported that sales of
newly-constructed residences managed just a 607,000 annual rate of sale. This
was a 10.5% deterioration from an upwardly-revised June figure, where 50,000
units were added to the initial estimate, lifting the total for June to 678,000.
Supplies of new homes for sale remain more than ample; soft sales saw the
inventory-to-sales ratio re-balloon to 9.6 months of supply at the present rate
of sale; optimal supply is considered to be perhaps six months. If there's any
positive in the report, it may be that new homes sold were less expensive; at
$393,800, it is the lowest cost for a new home in five years, so there may be
relative bargains available.
Mortgage rates hovering around one-year highs? Check. Applications for mortgage credit posting declines? Also check. According to the Mortgage Bankers Association, requests for mortgages declined by 1% in the week ending August 21. Applications for funds to purchase homes declined by 0.3%; those for loans to refinance existing mortgages dropped off by a full 2%. Mortgage rate conditions simply aren't supportive of any increase in activity at the moment, and this may be the case for a time yet.
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