Statistical Tables | Gathering Data

Prices Mixed, Sales Up in August

The median sales price for single-family, re-sale homes was down 0.5% compared to August 2023. It was down 8.7% from July.

The average sales price of single-family, re-sale homes rose 2.9% year-over-year. It was down 6.1% from July.

Sales of single-family, re-sale homes were up 4.3% year-over-year. There were 701 homes sold last month. The average monthly sales since 2005 is 907.

The sales price to list price ratio for homes fell to 101.4% from 101.9%.

Days on market, or how long it takes to go from being listed to being under contract, was twenty-eight days.

The median sales price for condos was up 0.4% from July, and it was up 1.7% year-over-year. The average sales price was down 4.0% year-over-year.

Condo sales were up 8.8% from July, and they were up 10.5% year-over-year. There were 211 condo sales last month.

The sales price to list price ratio for condos fell from 100.6% to 99.9%.

Days on market, or how long it takes to go from being listed to being under contract, was forty-one days for condos.

Momentum Statistics

Sales momentum…
for single-family homes rose 1.7 points to –0.4.

Pricing momentum…
for single-family homes stayed at +1.9.

Our momentum statistics are based on 12-month moving averages to eliminate monthly and seasonal variations.

This is an extraordinarily tough market for buyers. It's important to be calm and realistic. If you don't know what to do or where to begin, give me a call and let's discuss your situation and your options.

If you’re looking to sell, call me for a comprehensive Comparative Market Analysis.

Our momentum statistics are based on 12-month moving averages to eliminate monthly and seasonal variations.

We calculate…

momentum by using a 12-month moving average to eliminate seasonality. By comparing this year's 12-month moving average to last year's, we get a percentage showing market momentum.  

In the chart below…

the blue area shows momentum for home sales while the red line shows momentum for pending sales of single-family, re-sale homes. The purple line shows momentum for the average price.

As you can see, pricing momentum has an inverse relationship to sales momentum.

Remember, the real estate market is a matter of neighborhoods and houses. No two are the same. For complete information on a particular neighborhood or property, call me.

P.S. The FHA requires all condo projects to be re-certified before they will make a loan. To find out if the condo project you're interested in is eligible, go here: https://entp.hud.gov/idapp/html/condlook.cfm.

The real estate market is very hard to generalize. It is a market made up of many micro markets. For complete information on a particular neighborhood or property, call me.

If I can help you devise a strategy, call or click the buying or selling link in the menu to the left.

Monthly Statistics

Complete monthly sales statistics for Contra Costa County are below. Monthly graphs are available for each city in the county.

August Sales Statistics
(Single-family Homes)
	Prices		Units			Change from last year			Change from last month
	Median	Average	Sold	DOM	SP/LP	Median	Average	Sold	Median	Average	Sold
County	$835,000	$1,170,632	701	28	101.4%	-0.5%	2.9%	4.3%	-8.7%	-6.1%	3.2%
Alamo	$2,400,000	$2,826,273	11	41	102.2%	-8.0%	13.8%	-15.4%	-10.3%	-2.8%	-21.4%
Antioch	$640,000	$638,124	101	59	100.7%	-2.3%	-2.5%	32.9%	1.1%	-2.3%	57.8%
Bay Point	$635,000	$644,167	6	65	101.9%	20.7%	12.0%	-50.0%	12.4%	11.9%	-14.3%
Blackhawk	$2,225,000	$2,225,000	1	7	111.3%	53.4%	27.7%	-90.9%	29.7%	21.9%	-90.9%
Brentwood	$825,000	$879,966	63	63	97.6%	6.1%	7.3%	-7.4%	-7.0%	-4.3%	12.5%
Clayton	$1,124,500	$1,183,000	8	53	103.2%	0.4%	3.8%	-27.3%	-13.5%	-10.9%	60.0%
Concord	$830,000	$901,829	59	47	101.0%	1.5%	7.2%	-9.2%	0.9%	1.3%	-15.7%
Danville	$2,122,500	$2,636,476	46	52	100.5%	5.6%	19.2%	-11.5%	-1.3%	10.3%	-6.1%
Discovery Bay	$860,000	$886,763	19	66	96.1%	5.5%	-2.5%	26.7%	-2.3%	-7.5%	-13.6%
El Cerrito	$998,000	$1,169,265	17	50	112.4%	6.1%	6.1%	21.4%	9.7%	70.0%	70.0%
El Sobrante	$750,000	$835,889	9	62	105.9%	1.4%	7.8%	28.6%	-1.6%	8.7%	-25.0%
Hercules	$910,000	$905,818	11	50	102.4%	-7.6%	-16.8%	57.1%	-4.2%	-5.6%	10.0%
Kensington	$1,705,000	$1,705,000	1	46	113.7%	23.0%	23.0%	-80.0%	8.2%	8.2%	-80.0%
Lafayette	$1,701,000	$2,268,762	21	46	104.2%	-2.0%	-11.7%	-4.5%	-4.4%	0.0%	-27.6%
Martinez	$752,500	$792,680	30	53	99.9%	-14.0%	-9.2%	-26.8%	2.0%	5.1%	15.4%
Moraga	$1,795,000	$2,017,813	15	56	99.0%	-14.7%	-3.7%	66.7%	-5.5%	-3.2%	114.3%
Oakley	$725,000	$710,554	28	54	100.4%	5.5%	-1.0%	-17.6%	10.7%	5.3%	-31.7%
Orinda	$1,750,000	$1,895,440	25	42	100.8%	-20.5%	-13.9%	127.3%	-26.5%	-19.7%	13.6%
Pinole	$770,044	$784,696	13	45	104.9%	-1.3%	2.8%	18.2%	-4.7%	2.0%	18.2%
Pittsburg	$585,000	$588,525	28	57	101.9%	-7.1%	-6.5%	-31.7%	-10.0%	-9.8%	12.0%
Pleasant Hill	$1,060,000	$1,170,319	21	39	102.3%	-20.9%	-11.3%	31.3%	-10.9%	-5.8%	10.5%
Richmond	$641,500	$642,219	52	55	102.9%	-10.9%	-17.5%	2.0%	-3.2%	-6.4%	0.0%
Rodeo	$650,000	$635,000	3	95	95.1%	-16.2%	-14.6%	0.0%	-5.1%	-0.4%	-25.0%
San Ramon	$1,765,000	$1,850,307	44	41	101.2%	5.1%	3.3%	2.3%	-7.5%	-6.3%	-4.3%
Walnut Creek	$1,547,500	$1,742,770	40	49	102.6%	10.1%	15.5%	53.8%	-7.6%	2.6%	-20.0%

August Sales Statistics
(Condos/Townhomes)
	Prices		Units			Change from last year			Change from last month
	Median	Average	Sold	DOM	SP/LP	Median	Average	Sold	Median	Average	Sold
County	$610,000	$673,764	211	41	99.9%	1.7%	-4.0%	10.5%	0.4%	-5.1%	8.8%
Antioch	$375,000	$372,750	8	65	100.9%	7.1%	6.7%	14.3%	53.1%	46.7%	60.0%
Concord	$439,000	$444,086	29	75	99.7%	0.9%	0.3%	38.1%	3.3%	-2.3%	93.3%
Danville	$1,209,395	$1,126,485	14	41	99.4%	21.1%	10.4%	55.6%	-3.2%	-7.7%	27.3%
Hercules	$576,000	$553,375	8	43	101.5%	25.5%	10.3%	33.3%	10.8%	-1.1%	-11.1%
Martinez	$507,000	$545,100	9	75	100.1%	-0.6%	-0.2%	-10.0%	0.5%	-5.3%	12.5%
Moraga	$1,042,500	$960,391	8	42	98.1%	6.4%	0.8%	33.3%	-20.9%	-21.3%	100.0%
Pleasant Hill	$712,500	$721,000	4	60	97.2%	-6.5%	-2.5%	0.0%	4.0%	23.3%	-33.3%
Richmond	$500,000	$561,434	11	82	100.6%	-12.3%	-11.5%	0.0%	-4.0%	-14.9%	22.2%
San Pablo	$488,500	$505,500	4	120	99.5%	-9.5%	-0.1%	33.3%	10.4%	14.2%	100.0%
San Ramon	$830,000	$919,988	19	58	100.0%	-6.7%	-0.5%	26.7%	-29.0%	-16.1%	5.6%
Walnut Creek	$619,000	$672,015	77	67	100.7%	-9.0%	-13.0%	-4.9%	8.0%	2.5%	-4.9%

Gathering Data

August 26, 2024 -- With a virtual guarantee of a rate cut coming at the next Fed meeting, the next logical question is "What size will the cut be?" For that, the Fed has made clear that they "will be data dependent but not data point dependent, so it will not be a question of responding specifically to one or two data releases" and that "the timing and pace of rate cuts will depend on incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks." (emphasis ours)

Still, clues and cues in this regard may be taken from the inbound data. Although there will be another round of CPI, PPI and import and export price changes before the mid-September FOMC get-together, there won't be any fresh update of the Fed's preferred measure of prices, derived from monthly Personal Consumption Expenditures data. The most recent figure the Fed will have to work with was released this week, but covers July, so it lags current conditions by a bit.

Overall PCE prices rose by another 0.2% in July, up a tick from June's figure, but the overall picture didn't change much, as the annualized rate of PCE inflation for the 12 months ended July remained at 2.5% for a second consecutive month. Digging deeper, the so-called "core" PCE price index (the Fed's favored measure as it removes volatile food, energy costs from the calculation) also rose by 0.2% in July, the same as in June, leaving the annualized figure at 2.6% for a third consecutive month. The Fed wants to see core PCE inflation running at a flat 2% rate, so inflation remains a bit above that level and hasn't shown fresh signs of retreating lately.

Mortgage rates were lower in July, but not by much, and existing home prices posted new record highs in June. These aren't the ingredients for a rebound in home sales, and the National Association of Realtors Pending Home Sales Index reflects this quite clearly. The PHSI posted a decline of 5.5% in July, and with the decline this measure of signed contract to buy previously-occupied home dropped to the lowest level in its (23-year) history. Mortgage rates dropped materially this month, ending August on a low note, so it's possible that this may loose some homebuyers into the market, but we'll not know this until the end of September at the earliest. That said, we have also passed the typical spring-summer homebuying "season", so it's hard to know how much improvement in sales might be expected.

We do know that lower mortgage rates by themselves are limited in their ability to improve sales, and that even with recent declines, rates are still in the mid-sixes, albeit at about a 16-month low point. Even with that, requests for mortgage credit aren't exactly booming, but the Mortgage Bankers Association reported that overall applications for mortgages rose by 0.5% in the week ending August 23. Requests for funds to purchase homes edged 0.9% higher, while those to refinance existing loans declined by 0.1%. The fresh decline in rates this week may see a few more refinance applications be filed as homeowners can react more quickly than can potential homebuyers.

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