Statistical Tables | Labor Day, Labor Concerns

Trends at a Glance
(Single-family Homes)
  Aug 22 Jul 22 Aug 21
Average Price: $1,144,785 $1,170,021 $1,164,185
Median Price: $850,000 $899,950 $880,000
Home Sales: 761 743 1,080
DOM: 27 21 14
SP/LP Ratio: 100.1% 101.7% 107.8%
(Condos/Townhomes)
  Aug 22 Jul 22 Aug 21
Average Price: $680,352 $674,673 $641,238
Median Price: $614,250 $590,000 $585,000
Condo Sales: 233 181 298
DOM: 22 17 16
SP/LP Ratio: 101.0% 101.5% 103.8%

Home Prices & Sales Drop

The median sales price for single-family, re-sale homes was down 3.4% compared to last August.

The average sales price of single-family, re-sale homes dropped 1.7% year-over-year.

Sales of single-family, re-sale homes fell for the twelfth month in a row. They were down 29.5% year-over-year. There were 761 homes sold last month. The average monthly sales since 2005 is 907.

The sales price to list price ratio for homes fell to 100.1% from 101.7%.

Days on market, or how long it takes to go from being listed to being under contract, was twenty-seven days.

The median sales price for condos was up 4.1% from July, and it was up 5% year-over-year. The average sales price was up 0.8% from July, and it was up 6.1% year-over-year.

Condo sales were up 28.7% from July, but they were down 21.8% year-over-year. There were 233 condo sales last month.

The sales price to list price ratio for condos fell to 101% from 101.5%.

Days on market, or how long it takes to go from being listed to being under contract, rose from seventeen days to twenty-two days for condos. 

Momentum Statistics

Sales momentum…
for single-family homes slumped 6.3 points to –24.4.

Pricing momentum…
for single-family homes fell 1 point to +5.6.

Our momentum statistics are based on 12-month moving averages to eliminate monthly and seasonal variations.

This is an extraordinarily tough market for buyers. It's important to be calm and realistic. If you don't know what to do or where to begin, give me a call and let's discuss your situation and your options.

If you’re looking to sell, call me for a comprehensive Comparative Market Analysis.

Our momentum statistics are based on 12-month moving averages to eliminate monthly and seasonal variations.

We calculate…

momentum by using a 12-month moving average to eliminate seasonality. By comparing this year's 12-month moving average to last year's, we get a percentage showing market momentum.  

In the chart below…

the blue area shows momentum for home sales while the red line shows momentum for pending sales of single-family, re-sale homes. The purple line shows momentum for the average price.

As you can see, pricing momentum has an inverse relationship to sales momentum.

Remember, the real estate market is a matter of neighborhoods and houses. No two are the same. For complete information on a particular neighborhood or property, call me.

P.S. The FHA requires all condo projects to be re-certified before they will make a loan. To find out if the condo project you're interested in is eligible, go here: https://entp.hud.gov/idapp/html/condlook.cfm.

The real estate market is very hard to generalize. It is a market made up of many micro markets. For complete information on a particular neighborhood or property, call me.

If I can help you devise a strategy, call or click the buying or selling link in the menu to the left.

Monthly Statistics

Complete monthly sales statistics for Contra Costa County are below. Monthly graphs are available for each city in the county.

August Sales Statistics
(Single-family Homes)
  Prices Units     Change from last year Change from last month
  Median Average Sold DOM SP/LP Median Average Sold Median Average Sold
County $850,000 $1,144,785 761 27 100.1% -3.4% -1.7% -29.5% -5.6% -2.2% 2.4%
Alamo $2,400,000 $3,088,227 11 26 98.8% -11.1% 13.7% -38.9% -15.8% 3.5% -8.3%
Antioch $635,290 $650,450 85 29 99.6% -1.5% 0.7% -29.8% -0.7% -1.0% -6.6%
Bay Point $474,500 $512,708 12 17 97.9% -23.5% -19.0% -20.0% -24.7% -21.7% 50.0%
Blackhawk $2,225,000 $2,225,000 1 7 111.3% 53.4% 27.7% -90.9% 29.7% 21.9% -90.9%
Brentwood $822,500 $845,723 66 32 99.8% 4.8% 2.0% -36.5% -1.8% -7.4% -2.9%
Clayton $1,024,950 $1,122,268 11 49 100.2% 6.8% 8.6% -15.4% -8.5% -5.5% 0.0%
Concord $810,000 $829,955 77 23 100.5% 1.2% -0.6% -21.4% -5.8% -7.5% -9.4%
Danville $2,000,000 $2,114,675 35 22 97.5% 6.0% -1.1% -56.3% 0.0% -1.3% -25.5%
Discovery Bay $837,500 $957,500 18 35 97.2% 0.8% 5.7% -25.0% 0.6% 5.3% 0.0%
El Cerrito $1,275,000 $1,356,142 20 20 117.1% 12.4% 12.4% -35.5% 10.5% 81.8% 81.8%
El Sobrante $690,000 $706,222 9 15 104.3% -9.0% -8.6% -40.0% -15.3% -13.0% 28.6%
Hercules $902,500 $993,375 8 26 102.5% -3.8% 5.4% -46.7% -3.2% 4.8% -33.3%
Kensington $1,560,000 $1,586,625 8 23 112.6% -6.7% -6.7% -20.0% 23.7% 23.7% 33.3%
Lafayette $1,800,000 $2,106,790 33 20 97.6% -1.7% 0.0% -8.3% -7.2% -17.2% 22.2%
Martinez $780,000 $854,514 35 30 98.6% -4.3% 1.0% -14.6% -8.7% 0.3% -12.5%
Moraga $2,125,000 $2,163,778 9 12 97.9% 24.6% 20.9% -40.0% 35.7% 39.4% 12.5%
Oakley $655,500 $702,485 40 31 98.5% -3.7% 2.4% -31.0% -5.5% -6.2% 25.0%
Orinda $2,226,000 $2,391,429 21 27 102.8% 16.8% 19.4% -55.3% 18.2% 13.8% 16.7%
Pinole $737,500 $734,375 8 16 103.1% -1.7% -6.3% -27.3% -8.7% -2.5% -20.0%
Pittsburg $625,000 $640,402 49 37 100.4% -3.1% 2.0% 22.5% -2.7% -8.7% 2.1%
Pleasant Hill $1,115,000 $1,175,976 23 26 99.2% 2.5% 6.6% -37.8% -0.9% 0.4% -14.8%
Richmond $727,500 $785,287 50 23 104.8% -6.1% 1.0% -15.3% 3.2% 9.0% 2.0%
Rodeo $600,000 $557,500 4 34 101.9% 6.2% -14.6% -33.3% -4.6% -15.7% -42.9%
San Ramon $1,770,000 $1,846,432 56 29 97.4% -2.3% -0.8% -26.3% -9.2% -6.9% 43.6%
Walnut Creek $1,415,000 $1,502,483 44 22 100.6% 1.1% 0.8% -32.3% -12.9% -15.3% -4.3%

August Sales Statistics
(Condos/Townhomes)
  Prices Units     Change from last year Change from last month
  Median Average Sold DOM SP/LP Median Average Sold Median Average Sold
County $614,250 $680,352 233 22 101.0% 5.0% 6.1% -21.8% 4.1% 0.8% 28.7%
Antioch $277,500 $277,500 2 43 100.9% 20.7% 2.8% -71.4% -30.6% -30.6% -33.3%
Concord $417,500 $446,779 28 16 99.9% 0.0% 0.0% -26.3% 5.0% 6.6% 7.7%
Danville $1,145,000 $1,067,429 14 21 99.2% 22.5% 10.4% -30.0% 4.1% -2.4% 27.3%
Hercules $552,000 $533,100 10 17 102.1% 20.0% 15.7% -23.1% 21.9% 16.5% 100.0%
Martinez $565,000 $566,833 6 14 102.3% 13.0% 8.6% -60.0% -1.7% -1.2% -40.0%
Moraga $900,000 $928,750 4 25 97.0% -14.3% 0.0% -63.6% 23.3% 20.7% -42.9%
Pleasant Hill $581,500 $629,286 14 34 98.6% -16.9% -7.4% -12.5% 9.7% 2.4% 100.0%
Richmond $540,000 $585,767 15 19 100.0% -4.4% 12.2% -11.8% -12.2% -4.5% 25.0%
San Pablo $365,000 $393,000 3 41 103.1% -21.9% -16.7% -62.5% -26.7% -21.4% -50.0%
San Ramon $830,000 $840,989 23 20 98.0% -14.9% -7.2% -17.9% -10.3% -6.2% -14.8%
Walnut Creek $645,000 $717,523 94 20 103.4% 6.3% 9.3% -8.7% 4.9% 10.0% 77.4%

Labor Day, Labor Concerns

Sept 2, 2022 -- The calendar page turned again this week, and summer is at or coming to a close, depending on which point-in-time marker you may prefer. We're now into the final month the third quarter, and while there are sporadic clues that the economy and inflation are both moderating, it's not clear that there is sufficient moderation to keep the Fed from tightening policy aggressively again at its coming meeting.

Imbalance in the labor market has been a chief concern of the central bank for months, as tight labor markets are lifting wages and threatening to worsen or perpetuate price pressures. Simply put, the number of available jobs continues to outstrip the number of folks either willing or able to fill them. This gap is something the Fed very much wants to close, preferably without seriously damaging the economy or the labor market -- a hoped-for "soft landing".

The sharp slowdown in the housing market is starting to be reflected in outlays for new construction projects. Construction spending declined by 0.4% in July, dragged down by a 1.5% decline in outlays for residential projects. Sales of newly constructed homes have flagged this year under adverse conditions, and supplies of new homes are at about 13-year highs, so it's little wonder that less money is being spent to start new housing developments. Residential spending was the only drag in July, as non-residential projects saw an increase of 0.4%, and public-works spending expanded by a stout 1.5% for the month. Perhaps some of the money earmarked in the "infrastructure" bill signed into law earlier this year is starting to show up in public projects.

Applications for mortgage credit continued their 2022 downtrend this week. The Mortgage Bankers Association reported a 3.7% drop in requests for mortgages in the week ending August 26, and applications are at their lowest point since 1999. Applications for purchase-money mortgages dipped another 1.8%, while those for refinancing slumped by 7.8% last week. Of late, mortgage rates have started moving back up toward the cyclical highs seen back at the official start of summer in June; with just a couple of weeks to go to before summer officially ends and fall begins, and given the recent trend, we seem likely to return to those early-summer levels for mortgage rates before long.

There was really nothing in the data this week to refute the notion that the Fed will continue to be aggressive at its meeting this month, and perhaps beyond. The argument for a 75 basis point increase may have been weakened slightly as the labor data released this week wasn't off-the-charts strong; at the same time it was plenty strong enough to suggest that the economy can easily withstand monetary policy being moved to a more restrictive stance from its current "in the range of neutral" position. Price pressures are showing tentative signs of slowing and that may continue for a time as lower energy costs work their way through the economy, but are plenty of reasons to think that such declines aren't durable, and the Fed largely discounts them, anyway.

Investors continued to adjust their positions this week after Fed Chair Powell's message reinforcement last week, and underlying interest rates that influence mortgages continue to rise as a result. The somewhat-less-stronger-than-feared employment report tempered the recent rise in rates a bit, trimming off just a few basis points from an otherwise considerable increase in yields this week. As yields finished the week higher than where they began, mortgage rates are likely to push higher again next week again. Presently, the average offered rate for a conforming 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is only 15 basis points below its high for this cycle so far, and that gap will likely be closed considerably when the next report comes from Freddie Mac on Thursday morning.