Statistical Tables | Filling the Holes

Trends at a Glance
(Single-family Homes)
  Mar 21 Feb 21 Mar 20
Average Price: $1,156,587 $1,054,166 $897,264
Median Price: $900,000 $805,000 $710,500
Home Sales: 983 669 752
DOM: 15 20 27
SP/LP Ratio: 107.9% 105.1% 102.3%
(Condos/Townhomes)
  Mar 21 Feb 21 Mar 20
Average Price: $583,458 $549,265 $561,027
Median Price: $530,000 $491,500 $482,000
Condo Sales: 266 220 232
DOM: 17 28 22
SP/LP Ratio: 104.5% 102.4% 101.2%

Home Sales Prices Set New Highs, Again

The median sales price for single-family, re-sale homes set another new high in March, for the sixth time in the past thirteen months. It was up 26.7% compared to last March, and, it was up 11.8% from February.

The average sales price also set a new high for the seventh time in the last thirteen months. It rose 28.9% year-over-year. It gained 9.7% from February.

The sales price to list price ratio for homes rose to 107.9% from 105.1%.

Sales of single-family, re-sale homes jumped 46.9% from February. They were up 30.7% year-over-year. There were 983 homes sold last month. The average monthly sales since 2005 is 907.

Days on market, or how long it takes to go from being listed to being under contract, for homes fell five days to fifteen days.

The median sales price for condos was up 7.8% from February, and, it was up 10% year-over-year. The average price was up 6.2% from February, and, it was down 4% year-over-year.

Condo sales were up 20.9% from February, and, they were up 14.7% year-over-year. There were 266 condo sales last month.

The sales price to list price ratio for condos went from 102.4% to 104.5%.

Days on market, or how long it takes to go from being listed to being under contract, fell from twenty-eight days to seventeen days for condos. 

Momentum Statistics

Sales momentum…

for single-family homes rose 3 points to  -2.5.

Pricing momentum…

for single-family homes rose 1 point to +14.4.

Our momentum statistics are based on 12-month moving averages to eliminate monthly and seasonal variations.

We calculate…

momentum by using a 12-month moving average to eliminate seasonality. By comparing this year's 12-month moving average to last year's, we get a percentage showing market momentum.  

In the chart below…

the blue area shows momentum for home sales while the red line shows momentum for pending sales of single-family, re-sale homes. The purple line shows momentum for the average price.

As you can see, pricing momentum has an inverse relationship to sales momentum.

Remember, the real estate market is a matter of neighborhoods and houses. No two are the same. For complete information on a particular neighborhood or property, call me.

P.S. The FHA requires all condo projects to be re-certified before they will make a loan. To find out if the condo project you're interested in is eligible, go here: https://entp.hud.gov/idapp/html/condlook.cfm.

The real estate market is very hard to generalize. It is a market made up of many micro markets. For complete information on a particular neighborhood or property, call me.

If I can help you devise a strategy, call or click the buying or selling link in the menu to the left.

Monthly Statistics

Complete monthly sales statistics for Contra Costa County are below. Monthly graphs are available for each city in the county.

March Sales Statistics
(Single-family Homes)
  Prices Units     Change from last year Change from last month
  Median Average Sold DOM SP/LP Median Average Sold Median Average Sold
County $900,000 $1,156,587 983 15 107.9% 26.7% 28.9% 30.7% 11.8% 9.7% 46.9%
Alamo $2,425,000 $2,911,294 26 14 103.1% 20.4% 42.5% 44.4% 3.8% 9.0% 85.7%
Antioch $575,000 $577,672 93 15 106.0% 21.1% 19.9% 29.2% 7.5% 1.7% 52.5%
Bay Point $500,000 $597,850 8 12 110.9% 11.7% 24.7% -33.3% -5.7% 16.4% 14.3%
Blackhawk $1,715,000 $1,825,727 11 38 97.8% 5.9% 20.4% 10.0% 22.3% 30.8% 83.3%
Brentwood $812,500 $870,280 102 12 103.6% 37.9% 39.4% 39.7% 12.1% 13.5% 47.8%
Clayton $1,050,000 $1,033,703 15 8 105.3% 19.0% 14.2% 36.4% 35.5% 23.1% 66.7%
Concord $795,000 $841,082 105 9 109.7% 15.6% 17.3% 34.6% 4.6% 9.6% 31.3%
Danville $1,745,000 $1,879,932 108 14 107.5% 21.0% 23.9% 63.6% 2.0% -1.6% 83.1%
Discovery Bay $755,000 $769,695 30 28 101.9% 21.8% 16.3% -14.3% 3.5% -7.4% 7.1%
El Cerrito $1,302,500 $1,296,091 22 16 130.5% 36.2% 36.2% 37.5% 5.0% 214.3% 214.3%
El Sobrante $867,500 $886,500 12 21 111.3% 37.6% 36.3% 140.0% 26.2% 21.4% 100.0%
Hercules $842,500 $886,300 10 7 104.9% 10.1% 19.5% 0.0% -8.4% -4.3% 11.1%
Kensington $1,343,375 $1,432,792 6 14 119.1% 18.3% 18.3% 20.0% -11.4% -11.4% -40.0%
Lafayette $1,900,025 $2,041,988 27 11 104.8% 18.8% 18.4% 92.9% 6.4% -0.1% 0.0%
Martinez $825,000 $858,344 33 30 106.8% 20.6% 25.2% 22.2% 4.8% 4.6% 26.9%
Moraga $1,928,500 $2,042,417 12 14 106.7% 25.5% 20.0% 33.3% 19.0% 17.2% -7.7%
Oakley $645,000 $662,137 47 37 106.1% 29.5% 28.4% 30.6% 0.8% 1.8% 42.4%
Orinda $1,915,000 $2,054,716 29 26 107.1% 2.0% 9.8% 45.0% 2.8% 0.8% 163.6%
Pinole $850,000 $804,682 11 11 110.1% 35.8% 30.5% 10.0% 23.6% 21.5% -8.3%
Pittsburg $610,000 $629,375 49 12 106.2% 30.1% 30.8% 32.4% 8.0% 5.8% 69.0%
Pleasant Hill $1,007,500 $1,023,485 38 10 110.2% 19.6% 10.3% 111.1% 10.2% 6.2% 90.0%
Richmond $718,000 $742,461 52 15 109.8% 30.5% 18.8% -10.3% 24.5% 22.7% 20.9%
Rodeo $677,500 $655,833 6 11 102.2% 41.1% 27.8% -14.3% 27.8% 21.9% 20.0%
San Ramon $1,587,500 $1,645,326 62 8 112.2% 27.0% 23.2% 0.0% 13.0% 11.4% 77.1%
Walnut Creek $1,537,500 $1,578,116 56 13 109.7% 26.8% 23.5% 64.7% 18.7% 12.8% 51.4%

March Sales Statistics
(Condos/Townhomes)
  Prices Units     Change from last year Change from last month
  Median Average Sold DOM SP/LP Median Average Sold Median Average Sold
County $530,000 $583,458 266 17 104.5% 7.8% 6.2% 14.7% 7.8% 6.2% 20.9%
Antioch $280,475 $261,988 4 35 102.5% 23.6% 6.7% -20.0% 23.6% 6.7% -50.0%
Concord $360,000 $396,749 33 14 105.2% 0.0% 2.2% 43.5% 0.0% 2.2% 32.0%
Danville $897,000 $864,579 19 6 106.5% -7.3% -8.1% 26.7% -7.3% -8.1% 111.1%
Hercules $454,500 $478,278 9 18 105.0% 1.0% 5.3% -35.7% 1.0% 5.3% 28.6%
Martinez $441,000 $495,950 20 13 103.8% -7.6% 0.9% 5.3% -7.6% 0.9% 100.0%
Moraga $737,500 $717,750 4 14 103.6% -2.3% -3.7% -33.3% -2.3% -3.7% -20.0%
Pleasant Hill $651,000 $624,821 14 10 104.3% 20.6% 15.8% 133.3% 20.6% 15.8% 100.0%
Richmond $525,000 $526,577 23 16 102.9% 6.1% 7.1% 53.3% 6.1% 7.1% 155.6%
San Pablo $557,500 $557,500 2 6 106.8% n/a n/a -66.7% n/a n/a n/a
San Ramon $760,000 $811,803 33 13 108.7% 25.1% 21.0% 3.1% 25.1% 21.0% 22.2%
Walnut Creek $520,000 $566,510 86 22 102.6% 3.2% 0.6% 21.1% 3.2% 0.6% -8.5%

Filling The Holes

April 2, 2021 -- The economy was doing well and actually was starting to pick up some steam in early 2020 after being damped by all manner of "trade wars" with China and others back in 2019. Agreements being put in place and lessening of rhetoric set a new playing field, and uncertainty was beginning to lift, allowing for acceleration of growth again.

Then, the COVID-19 pandemic hit, injecting unprecedented uncertainties, cratering economies across the globe with restrictions on activity and creating gigantic holes in nearly all facets of every economy. At least initially, those holes were kept from getting deeper by extraordinary responses by central banks to create and promote liquidity and market function, and were later joined by varying rounds of fiscal stimulus to help people and industries bridge the gap the virus caused.

As beneficial as these programs may be for many, they can have disruptive effects of their own. Ultra-low rates may be great for borrowers, but bad for savers; high levels of money sloshing about an economy may lead to frothy asset prices. Blowout spending programs by the government can add to aggregate demand, which can outstrip supply, creating price pressures (transient or not) and conversely, financing all of this by issuing record levels of bonds may see greater bond supply than investor demand, pressing interest rates higher. To varying degrees, all of these have been in play so far in 2021, and interest rates and mortgage rates have firmed up considerably.

For the most part, though, the holes in the economy here and elsewhere remain. Filling them all completely will take time, but we are starting to see important steps in that process; in fact, these holes in many ways are filling up faster than had generally been expected. For example, the Federal Reserve has ratcheted up its expectations for growth and inflation notably over the last few meetings; the housing market went from a pretty pedestrian rate of existing home sales and relatively modest price gains to 14 year highs for sales and 15% annual rates of price increases.

As expected, construction spending throttled back in February as wicked winter weather curtailed activity. Overall outlays for construction projects declined by 0.8%, dragged down by a 0.2% decline in residential projects, a 1% decline in non-residential spending and a 1.7% drop in public-works project outlays. President Biden has just outlined a plan to spend a couple of trillion dollars on infrastructure spending, but a review of the bill suggest that perhaps only half of the dollars are actually aimed at roads, bridges, rails and the like. Regardless of that, spending for housing will show a sharp revival for March and non-residential will probably also recover a bit, too.

The National Association of Realtors index of Pending Home Sales dropped by 10.6% in February. Weather plays a role here -- few want to venture out in thigh deep snow or bone-chilling cold to see homes for sale -- but a serious lack of inventory to review even if one wanted to venture out, prices that are rising quickly and financing costs that were firming during the month were also likely deterrents to getting a contract to buy an existing home.

The rise in mortgage rates has leveled off, at least for now, but the increase has had the expected tempering effect on mortgage applications. The Mortgage Bankers Association reported another 2.2% decline in requests for mortgage credit in the week ending March 26, the seventh decline in the last eight weeks. Applications for purchase-money mortgages eased by 1.5%, breaking a four-week string of increases, while those for refinancing slid another 2.5%, also making it declines in 7 of the last 8 week. Refi activity is approximately at a May 2020 level, when mortgage rates were last at about present levels, give or take a few basis points.