The prices for single-family, re-sale homes and condos gained ground last year. The median price for homes rose 5.9%, while the average price gained 7.9%. The median price for condos, townhomes and flats rose 14.3%, and the average price was up 5.2%.
This in the face of declining demand. Home sales were down for the fourth year in a row, dropping 12.2% from 2006. Sales of condos, townhomes and flats were off only 3%. Of course, San Francisco is a special case in that there is no room for growth but up.
The story of the year was the credit crunch. It slashed demand to the bone. Gone are 100% mortgages and no-doc mortgages. The tightening of underwriting has caused many people not to qualify for a home loan. Plus, the spread premium between conventional and jumbo loans, needed to buy almost anything in the city, rose from a typical 0.5-0.75 to 1.5.
Sales were already weak before the credit crunch, but afterwards, they went into free-fall. In the first eight months of the year, sales were actually up, year-over-year, in two months, down by single-digits in three months, down by teens in two months and off 21.2% in June. Starting in September, these are the year-over-year declines in single-family, re-sale homes: -30%, -16.2%, -20.5%, and -23.4% in December.
As for predicting 2008, we're not going to even try. The talking heads are all over the place and they're throwing out statistics to support every position. The thing to remember is real estate is very localized. San Francisco is a special case, and even within the city, what happens in one district does not carry over to other districts.
P.S. To see the annual trend charts and tables for the individual districts in San Francisco, click on the desired district in the menu to the left.
| San Francisco | |||||||||
| (Single Family Homes) | |||||||||
| Prices | Other | Percent Change | |||||||
| Average | Median | Sold | DOM | SP/LP | SP/OLP | Average | Median | Sold | |
| 2000 | $730,512 | $529,000 | 3,073 | 27 | 111.2% | 111.2% | |||
| 2001 | $752,586 | $555,000 | 2,673 | 33 | 101.7% | 101.7% | 3.0% | 4.9% | -13.0% |
| 2002 | $751,173 | $590,000 | 3,100 | 33 | 102.9% | 99.3% | -0.2% | 6.3% | 16.0% |
| 2003 | $809,711 | $640,000 | 3,392 | 39 | 101.9% | 87.2% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 9.4% |
| 2004 | $948,050 | $750,000 | 3,308 | 32 | 107.1% | 101.1% | 17.1% | 17.2% | -2.5% |
| 2005 | $1,094,328 | $850,000 | 2,985 | 32 | 108.1% | 99.5% | 15.4% | 13.3% | -9.8% |
| 2006 | $1,117,974 | $850,000 | 2,522 | 39 | 102.7% | 101.1% | 2.2% | 0.0% | -15.5% |
| 2007 | $1,205,997 | $900,000 | 2,215 | 41 | 103.3% | 101.8% | 7.9% | 5.9% | -12.2% |
| San Francisco | |||||||||
| (Condos/Town Homes/Flats) | |||||||||
| Prices | Other | Percent Change | |||||||
| Average | Median | Sold | DOM | SP/LP | SP/OLP | Average | Median | Sold | |
| 2000 | $639,777 | $535,000 | 2,009 | 23 | 110.4% | 110.4% | |||
| 2001 | $610,376 | $499,800 | 1,743 | 40 | 100.1% | 100.0% | -4.6% | -6.6% | -13.2% |
| 2002 | $604,668 | $515,000 | 2,656 | 41 | 100.4% | 99.5% | -0.9% | 3.0% | 52.4% |
| 2003 | $605,354 | $535,000 | 3,155 | 50 | 100.4% | 94.9% | 0.1% | 3.9% | 18.8% |
| 2004 | $701,777 | $615,000 | 3,613 | 37 | 104.5% | 103.2% | 15.9% | 15.0% | 14.5% |
| 2005 | $806,942 | $710,000 | 3,456 | 35 | 106.5% | 103.6% | 15.0% | 15.4% | -4.3% |
| 2006 | $795,394 | $700,000 | 2,985 | 51 | 101.1% | 95.4% | -1.4% | -1.4% | -13.6% |
| 2007 | $836,470 | $800,000 | 2,896 | 49 | 101.6% | 97.5% | 5.2% | 14.3% | -3.0% |
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