| Trends at a Glance | |||
| (Single-family Homes) | |||
| Oct 11 | Sep 11 | Oct 10 | |
| Median Price: | $391,000 | $400,000 | $439,475 |
| Average Price: | $455,047 | $479,684 | $525,434 |
| Home Sales: | 778 | 837 | 708 |
| Sale/List Price Ratio: | 98.7% | 97.7% | 97.7% |
| Days on Market: | 52 | 56 | 43 |
The Home Affordable Refinance Program, or HARP, is being revamped.
It was originally aimed at a housing market that had an estimated 5 million struggling homeowners. Unfortunately, HARP's original terms and limits were so restrictive that the program, to date, has reached fewer than 900,000 mortgage holders. The major restriction eliminated any homeowner whose existing mortgage represented more than 125% of the loan-to-value of their home.
The revamping of HARP will let borrowers whose mortgages are backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac refinance those underwater mortgages, presumably no matter how far their home's value has fallen. In fact, current loan-to-value ratio on the existing mortgage must be greater than 80 percent.
And, mortgage holders can't double-dip; that is, if they already have an earlier HARP loan, they can't get another at the even better rate of 4%. The new terms also eliminate the need for yet another property appraisal in calculating LTV, and the program's end date has been extended.
The plan, announced last week still has certain eligibility limits. For example, your mortgage has to be a Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac instrument, owned or guaranteed by one agency or the other, and you must not have missed any payments in the last six months (since April 24, at present), or have more than one missed payment over the last year.
The FHFA, or Federal Housing Finance Agency, which currently controls Fannie, Freddie, and 12 other Federal Home Loan Banks – located in Atlanta, Boston, Chicago, Cincinnati, Dallas, Des Moines, Indianapolis, New York, Pittsburgh, San Francisco, Seattle and Topeka - is expected to announce the final program parameters by November 15.
This is a much needed expansion of the program. Unfortunately, there are over ten million homeowners underwater and this new HARP will only be available to 10% of them.
Sales of single-family, re-sale homes are up 4.7% year-to-date. In October, home sales gained 9.9% compared to last October.
The median price for homes was off 11% year-over-year. This is the tenth month in a row the median price has been lower than the year before. The average price was down 13.4%.
rose four points to +4.
sales momentum by using a 12-month moving average to eliminate seasonality. By comparing this year's 12-month moving average to last year's, we get a percentage showing market momentum.
peaked at +14% in October and has been slowly declining every since. In October, pricing momentum was down one point to -6.
The sales price to list price ratio jumped 1.8 points to 99%.
Average days on market rose sixteen days to 67 days. Days on market is calculated from when a home is listed to when it goes into contract.
The median price for condos was off 20.2% from last October. This is the sixteenth month in a row the median price has been lower than the year before.
Condo sales were up 83.3% year-over-year. Year-to-date, condo sales are up 17.3%.
The sales price to list price ratio gained 0.9 of a point to 98.7%.
Foreclosure Statistics…
Notices of default, the first step in the foreclosure process,
in Alameda County fell 15.9% from September. Year-over-year, notices were down 11.2%, according to
ForeclosureRadar.com.
Notices of sale, which set the date and time of an auction, and serve as the homeowner's final notice before sale, were down 34.4% year-over-year. Month-over-month, notices of sale were up 0.2%.
After the filing of a Notice of Trustee Sale, there are only three possible outcomes. First, the sale can be cancelled for reasons that include a successful loan modification or short sale, a filing error, or a legal requirement to re-file the notice after extended postponements. Alternatively, if the property is taken to sale, the bank will place the opening bid. If a third party, typically an investor, bids more than the bank's opening bid, the property will be sold to the third party; if not, it will go back to the bank and become part of that bank's REO inventory.
Year-over-year, cancellations were down 1.3%. Compared to September, cancellations were up 1.4%.
Property that went back to banks dropped 17.9% from September, and were down 28. year-over-year.
The total number of homes that have had a notice of default filed decreased by 17.9% in October compared to October 2010.
The total number of homes scheduled for sale decreased by 25%.
The number of homes owned by the bank dipped 1.7% year-over-year.
The local market has split into three parts: the lower-end, under about $500,000, where multiple offers are common; the mid-range, between $500,000 and $1MM where the market is more balanced; and the upper end, over $1MM.
The percentage of sales in the under $500K market has been on an upward trend the last three months, accounting for 63.9% of the market in September.
The real estate market is very hard to generalize. It is a market made up of many micro markets. For complete information on a particular neighborhood or property, call me.
If I can help you devise a strategy, call or click the buying or selling link in the menu to the left.
Complete monthly sales statistics for the Alameda County are below. Monthly graphs are available for each city in the county.
| October Sales Statistics | |||||||||||
| (Single-family Homes) | |||||||||||
| Prices | Unit | Change from last year | Change from last month | ||||||||
| Area | Median | Average | Sales | DOM | SP/LP | Median | Average | Sales | Median | Average | Sales |
| County | $391,000 | $455,047 | 778 | 52 | 98.7% | -11.0% | -13.4% | 9.9% | -5.1% | -2.3% | -7.0% |
| Alameda | $476,000 | $517,080 | 23 | 67 | 99.0% | -13.5% | -13.6% | 9.5% | -9.1% | -13.9% | -20.7% |
| Albany | $578,000 | $605,910 | 5 | 24 | 99.6% | -22.7% | -19.3% | 0.0% | 14.0% | 17.7% | 66.7% |
| Berkeley | $550,000 | $668,985 | 31 | 34 | 101.2% | -18.5% | -17.1% | -26.2% | -13.2% | -22.5% | -16.2% |
| Castro Valley | $430,000 | $464,441 | 43 | 48 | 96.8% | -4.4% | -6.2% | 59.3% | 1.4% | -2.8% | 13.2% |
| Dublin | $555,000 | $682,855 | 21 | 54 | 97.2% | -11.9% | 2.8% | -27.6% | 21.1% | 11.0% | -27.6% |
| Fremont | $475,000 | $560,562 | 113 | 50 | 97.9% | -19.4% | -12.8% | 8.7% | -10.4% | -6.9% | -1.7% |
| Hayward | $266,500 | $299,963 | 84 | 65 | 98.9% | -11.2% | -4.9% | 3.7% | 1.0% | 2.2% | -11.6% |
| Livermore | $392,500 | $462,226 | 68 | 56 | 99.2% | -4.8% | -9.2% | 17.2% | -5.9% | -14.7% | -4.2% |
| Newark | $365,000 | $399,124 | 33 | 63 | 98.8% | -13.6% | -7.5% | 135.7% | 5.3% | -5.8% | 37.5% |
| Oakland | $272,000 | $360,342 | 203 | 47 | 99.4% | 11.4% | -7.9% | 9.7% | 3.9% | 17.2% | -2.9% |
| Piedmont | $1,101,500 | $1,222,167 | 6 | 39 | 101.2% | -7.2% | -1.6% | -25.0% | -3.7% | -8.2% | -40.0% |
| Pleasanton | $642,000 | $739,657 | 42 | 47 | 98.2% | -16.8% | -22.0% | 0.0% | -15.4% | -13.4% | -19.2% |
| San Leandro | $320,000 | $343,419 | 58 | 59 | 98.3% | -8.6% | -7.3% | 38.1% | -2.1% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| San Lorenzo | $286,250 | $298,113 | 24 | 53 | 98.1% | -13.9% | -8.1% | 20.0% | 5.9% | 0.4% | -4.0% |
| Union City | $416,000 | $461,386 | 22 | 37 | 98.0% | -24.4% | -14.6% | -24.1% | 4.5% | 0.0% | -46.3% |
| October Sales Statistics | |||||||||||
| (Condos/Town Homes) | |||||||||||
| Prices | Unit | Change from last year | Change from last month | ||||||||
| Median | Average | Sales | DOM | SP/LP | Median | Average | Sales | Median | Average | Sales | |
| County | $215,000 | $242,738 | 254 | 67 | 98.7% | -6.5% | -7.8% | 38.8% | 0.6% | -1.1% | 9.5% |
| Alameda | $342,000 | $321,636 | 11 | 121 | 96.6% | -20.2% | -14.5% | 83.3% | -14.1% | -8.8% | 0.0% |
| Albany | $0 | $0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| Berkeley | $295,000 | $341,200 | 5 | 129 | 103.9% | -35.8% | -31.5% | -16.7% | -1.0% | -11.0% | -16.7% |
| Castro Valley | $274,000 | $348,286 | 7 | 87 | 97.5% | 33.7% | 46.6% | 40.0% | 10.2% | -29.7% | 0.0% |
| Dublin | $315,000 | $310,233 | 15 | 37 | 101.6% | -8.7% | -8.0% | -34.8% | 4.0% | 3.2% | -31.8% |
| Emeryville | $195,000 | $212,450 | 13 | 86 | 98.4% | -8.9% | -14.0% | 62.5% | -18.5% | -33.9% | 85.7% |
| Fremont | $287,850 | $319,712 | 41 | 66 | 97.9% | 23.3% | 22.4% | 95.2% | 19.3% | 32.0% | 10.8% |
| Hayward | $144,250 | $161,516 | 44 | 54 | 98.0% | -19.9% | -18.3% | 158.8% | 8.2% | 5.2% | 69.2% |
| Livermore | $230,000 | $238,063 | 15 | 42 | 100.2% | 20.1% | 31.3% | -11.8% | -3.3% | -3.8% | 25.0% |
| Newark | $187,000 | $188,550 | 10 | 42 | 97.5% | -16.9% | -16.4% | 100.0% | -5.3% | -9.9% | 0.0% |
| Oakland | $200,000 | $229,307 | 62 | 74 | 98.1% | -27.3% | -17.2% | 63.2% | 6.7% | 17.3% | 6.9% |
| Pleasanton | $255,000 | $314,455 | 11 | 81 | 98.8% | -8.9% | 0.3% | 22.2% | -5.9% | -22.7% | 0.0% |
| San Leandro | $110,000 | $131,156 | 9 | 46 | 99.9% | -40.5% | -32.3% | -35.7% | -3.5% | -15.4% | 0.0% |
| Union City | $150,000 | $190,370 | 10 | 74 | 103.6% | -24.8% | -7.6% | -16.7% | 6.5% | 1.4% | -16.7% |
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