Home Prices and Sales Up in 2012

Trends at a Glance
(Single-family Homes)
  Dec 12 Nov 12 Dec 11
Median Price: $468,000 $467,000 $320,000
Average Price: $546,204 $527,818 $443,724
Home Sales: 841 953 914
Sale/List Price Ratio: 102.0% 102.3% 98.3%
Days on Market: 39 32 58

Both single-family, re-sales homes and condo sales were strong in 2012. Home sales were up 17% from 2011. Condo sales rose for the fourth year in a row, gaining 23.7% over 2011.

To read the rest of the annual report, and California Association of REALTORS® 2013 Forecast, click here.

December Sales Statistics

Sales of single-family, re-sale homes ended the year down 8% year-over-year.

The median price for homes was up 46.3% year-over-year. The median price is now up 40% since January, based on a 3-month moving average!

The sales price to list price ratio stayed over 100% for the eighth month in a row: 102%.

Alameda County Price Differences
from January & Peak & Trough
Homes: detached        
YTD Peak % Trough % Peak Trough
3-month 40% -32% 82% Jul-07 Mar-09
12-month 28% -34% 45% Oct-07 Sep-09
Homes: attached        
3-month 43% -36% 52% Jun-07 Feb-12
12-month 28% -44% 28% Jan-06 Feb-12
SALES MOMENTUM…

for single-family, re-sale homes in Alameda County slipped 0.4 of a point to +15.34. (See chart below)

PRICING MOMENTUM…

for single-family, re-sale homes rose 2.7 points to +22.6.

WE CALCULATE…

sales momentum by using a 12-month moving average to eliminate seasonality. By comparing this year's 12-month moving average to last year's, we get a percentage showing market momentum.

In the chart below…

the blue area shows momentum for home sales while the red line shows momentum for pending sales of single-family, re-sale homes. The purple line shows momentum for the median price.

Condo Statistics…

The median price for condos was up 41.2% year-over-year. The median price is now up 43% since January, based on a 3-month moving average.

Condo sales were down 21.1% year-over-year.

The sales price to list price ratio stayed over 100% for the eighth month in a row: 102.5%.

Foreclosure Statistics…

In December, notices of default, the first step in the foreclosure process, fell 13.7% from November. Year-over-year, notices were down 51.4%, according to ForeclosureRadar.com.

Notices of sale, which set the date and time of an auction, and serve as the homeowner's final notice before sale, were down 65.5% year-over-year. Month-over-month, notices of sale dropped 24.4%.

After filing a Notice of Trustee Sale, there are only three possible outcomes. First, the sale can be cancelled for reasons that include a successful loan modification or short sale, a filing error, or a legal requirement to re-file the notice after extended postponements, such as bankruptcy.

Alternatively, if the property is taken to sale, the bank places the opening bid. If a third party, typically an investor, bids more than the bank's opening bid, the property will be sold to the third party; if not, it will go back to the bank.

Year-over-year, cancellations were up 14.8%. Compared to November, cancellations were down 8.5%.

Property that went back to banks dropped 8.7% from November, and were down 71.1% year-over-year.

The total number of properties that have had a notice of default filed decreased by 38.4% year-over-year.

The total number of properties scheduled for sale decreased by 41.8% year-over-year.

The number of properties owned by the banks dropped 44% year-over-year. The banks own about 1,985 properties in Alameda County.

For further details and a city-by-city breakdown of foreclosure statistics, go to https://foreclosureradar.com.

 

The local market has split into three parts: the lower-end, under about $500,000, where multiple offers are common; the mid-range, between $500,000 and $1MM where the market is more balanced; and the upper end, over $1MM.

Alameda County Days on Market

The real estate market is very hard to generalize. It is a market made up of many micro markets. For complete information on a particular neighborhood or property, call me.

If I can help you devise a strategy, call or click the buying or selling link in the menu to the left.

Monthly Statistics

Complete monthly sales statistics for the Alameda County are below. Monthly graphs are available for each city in the county.

December Sales Statistics
(Single-family Homes)
  Prices Unit     Change from last year Change from last month
Area Median Average Sales DOM SP/LP Median Average Sales Median Average Sales
County $468,000 $546,204 841 39 102.0% 46.3% 23.1% -8.0% 0.2% 3.5% -11.8%
Alameda $632,500 $651,545 22 72 103.9% 19.3% 19.7% -21.4% 20.5% 23.5% -53.2%
Albany $682,000 $642,714 7 14 116.3% 49.9% 38.8% -30.0% 7.2% -8.2% 16.7%
Berkeley $752,500 $795,318 48 32 101.9% 18.5% 20.1% 2.1% 6.6% -4.7% 2.1%
Castro Valley $500,000 $513,058 48 44 99.7% 2.8% 4.6% 37.1% -1.6% -1.7% 11.6%
Dublin $588,500 $632,824 40 37 101.6% 4.2% 12.0% 37.9% 3.8% 3.8% 14.3%
Fremont $553,250 $662,651 92 37 101.0% 19.1% 25.0% -6.1% -5.4% -1.5% -24.6%
Hayward $331,000 $340,357 77 50 103.2% 22.6% -32.5% -30.6% 4.1% -1.9% -18.9%
Livermore $495,000 $592,688 77 30 101.3% 21.9% 25.5% 13.2% 10.4% 12.9% -19.8%
Newark $385,000 $417,550 19 33 101.7% 2.1% 7.0% -17.4% -13.1% -6.7% 0.0%
Oakland $367,500 $448,402 230 39 104.3% 36.9% 22.7% 6.5% 5.8% 2.6% -9.4%
Piedmont $1,468,056 $1,448,519 6 30 109.9% 23.6% 8.6% -25.0% 27.1% -1.5% -33.3%
Pleasanton $826,575 $1,019,503 48 29 95.5% 24.3% 28.4% -15.8% 15.0% 28.1% -11.1%
San Leandro $350,000 $360,838 70 44 104.6% 31.1% 26.3% 7.7% 2.9% -0.4% 2.9%
San Lorenzo $311,500 $322,028 18 36 103.7% 24.6% 25.6% 5.9% -3.6% -0.4% 5.9%
Union City $492,500 $523,322 36 34 102.7% 24.5% 19.6% -10.0% 2.8% 9.6% -10.0%

 

December Sales Statistics
(Condos/Town Homes)
  Prices Unit     Change from last year Change from last month
  Median Average Sales DOM SP/LP Median Average Sales Median Average Sales
County $276,750 $307,574 232 33 102.5% 41.2% 27.3% -21.1% -4.3% -6.7% -10.1%
Alameda $330,000 $320,944 9 37 103.6% 10.2% 5.3% -43.8% -15.9% -14.3% -30.8%
Albany $0 $0 0 0 0.0% n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
Berkeley $400,000 $447,497 13 53 101.5% 17.8% 17.5% 225.0% 22.4% 23.0% 85.7%
Castro Valley $370,000 $353,000 3 14 105.6% 74.1% 43.9% -25.0% -1.5% -1.3% -62.5%
Dublin $340,000 $342,788 25 46 101.9% 8.6% 2.3% -16.7% -10.5% -15.0% 8.7%
Emeryville $212,500 $216,263 8 42 102.4% -11.5% -15.5% -46.7% -32.4% -29.6% 14.3%
Fremont $320,000 $379,246 45 23 102.1% 39.1% 42.4% -11.8% 0.4% -2.4% 15.4%
Hayward $168,000 $190,697 30 25 104.2% -0.6% 10.4% 25.0% -4.8% -15.2% 11.1%
Livermore $325,000 $309,031 13 34 102.7% 30.5% 32.6% -38.1% 9.2% 0.0% 8.3%
Newark $235,000 $249,414 7 8 104.8% 23.7% 23.9% 133.3% -4.5% -11.3% -36.4%
Oakland $268,750 $301,623 42 41 100.1% 45.3% 45.2% 7.7% -9.3% -8.9% -35.4%
Pleasanton $355,000 $356,527 13 45 103.9% 53.5% 42.6% -35.0% 0.6% 1.4% -31.6%
San Leandro $215,000 $221,170 9 15 106.9% 65.4% 35.9% -47.1% 21.1% 26.5% 80.0%
Union City $217,500 $234,536 14 33 106.0% 26.5% 24.8% 16.7% -10.7% -19.7% -22.2%