| Trends at a Glance | |||
| (Single-family Homes) | |||
| Nov 13 | Oct 13 | Nov 12 | |
| Median Price: | $625,000 | $614,500 | $467,000 |
| Average Price: | $686,559 | $665,912 | $527,818 |
| Home Sales: | 756 | 876 | 953 |
| Sale/List Price Ratio: | 103.7% | 104.0% | 102.3% |
| Days on Market: | 27 | 23 | 32 |
California home sales and prices to rise in 2014 as market transitions toward primary home buyers.
The C.A.R. forecast sees sales gaining 3.2% next year. Sales in 2013 will be down 2.1% from 2012. (Detached home sales in Alameda County are down 21.6% through November.)
"The housing market has improved over the past year, and we expect this trend to continue into 2014," said C.A.R. President Don Faught. "As the economy enters the fourth year of a modest recovery, we expect to see a strong demand for homeownership, as buyers who have been competing with investors and facing an extreme shortage of housing return from the sidelines."
The average for 30-year fixed mortgage interest rates will rise to 5.3%.
The California median home price is forecast to increase 6% to $432,800 in 2014, following a projected 28% increase in 2013 to $408,600. (The median price for detached homes in Alameda County is up 25.3% through November.)
"We've seen a marked improvement in housing market conditions in a year with the distressed market shrinking from one in three sales a year ago to less than one in five in recent months, thanks primarily to sharp gains in home prices," said C.A.R. Vice President and Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young. "As the market continues to improve, more previously underwater homeowners will look toward selling, making housing inventory less scarce in 2014. As a result of these factors, we'll see home price increases moderate from the double-digit increases we saw for much of this year to mid-single digits in most of the state."
Sales of single-family, re-sale homes were down 20.7% year-over-year. That's twelve months in a row home sales have been lower than the year before. Year-to-date, home sales are down 21.6%.
The median price for homes was up 33.8% year-over-year. That is twenty-three months in a row the median price has been higher than the year before by double-digits. The median price is now only 10% below the peak price.
Average days on market last month was 27. The average for the past fourteen years is 34.
The sale price to list price ratio stayed over 100% for the nineteenth month in a row: 103.7%. After the recent peak of 107.2% in June, the ratio has declined each month since, which indicates the market is cooling off, slightly.
| Alameda County Price Differences | |||||
| from January 2013 & Peak & Trough | |||||
| Homes: detached | |||||
| YTD | Peak % | Trough % | Peak | Trough | |
| 3-month | 32% | -10% | 143% | Jul-07 | Mar-09 |
| 12-month | 33% | -10% | 97% | Oct-07 | Sep-09 |
| Homes: attached | |||||
| 3-month | 35% | -10% | 114% | Jun-07 | Feb-12 |
| 12-month | 44% | -16% | 91% | Jan-06 | Feb-12 |
for single-family, re-sale homes in Alameda County slumped another 3.6 points to -25.8. (See chart below)
for single-family, re-sale homes fell 0.3 of a point to +28.7.
sales momentum by using a 12-month moving average to eliminate seasonality. By comparing this year's 12-month moving average to last year's, we get a percentage showing market momentum.
the blue area shows momentum for home sales while the red line shows momentum for pending sales of single-family, re-sale homes. The purple line shows momentum for the median price.
The median price for condos was up 25.7% year-over-year. The median price has been up by double-digits twenty-two months in a row, with nineteen of those months showing increases over 20%. The last fourteen months the median price has increased by more than 40% each month.
Condo sales were also down last month, dropping 18.6% year-over-year. Year-to-date, condo sales are off 24.5%.
The sale price to list price ratio stayed over 100% for the nineteenth month in a row: 102.1%. Again, the ratio peaked at 108.1% in May and has been declining ever since.
Average days on market last month was 25. The average for the past fourteen years is 36.
This is an extraordinarily tough market for buyers. It's important to be calm and realistic. If you don't know what to do or where to begin, give me a call and let's discuss your situation and your options.
The local market has split into three parts: the lower-end, under about $500,000, where multiple offers are common; the mid-range, between $500,000 and $1MM where the market is more balanced; and the upper end, over $1MM.
The real estate market is very hard to generalize. It is a market made up of many micro markets. For complete information on a particular neighborhood or property, call me.
If I can help you devise a strategy, call or click the buying or selling link in the menu to the left.
In November, notices of default, the first step in the foreclosure process, fell 32.2% from October. Year-over-year, notices were down 53.7%, according to PropertyRadar.com.
Notices of sale, which set the date and time of an auction, and serve as the homeowner's final notice before sale, were down 65.9% year-over-year. Month-over-month, notices of sale fell 23.6%.
After filing a Notice of Trustee Sale, there are only three possible outcomes. First, the sale can be cancelled for reasons that include a successful loan modification or short sale, a filing error, or a legal requirement to re-file the notice after extended postponements, such as bankruptcy.
Alternatively, if the property is taken to sale, the bank places the opening bid. If a third party, typically an investor, bids more than the bank's opening bid, the property will be sold to the third party; if not, it will go back to the bank.
Year-over-year, cancellations were down 74.3%. Compared to October, cancellations fell 22.4%. There were 149 cancellations in November.
Property that went back to banks dropped 52.3% from October, and they were down 76.9% year-over-year. Twenty-one properties went back to the banks last month.
The total number of properties that have had a notice of default filed decreased by 52% year-over-year.
The total number of properties scheduled for sale decreased by 71.4% year-over-year.
The number of properties owned by the banks dropped 34.9% year-over-year. The banks own about 1,296 properties in Alameda County.
For further details and a city-by-city breakdown of foreclosure statistics, go to https://www.propertyradar.com.
Complete monthly sales statistics for the Alameda County are below. Monthly graphs are available for each city in the county.
| November Sales Statistics | |||||||||||
| (Single-family Homes) | |||||||||||
| Prices | Unit | Change from last year | Change from last month | ||||||||
| Area | Median | Average | Sales | DOM | SP/LP | Median | Average | Sales | Median | Average | Sales |
| County | $625,000 | $686,559 | 756 | 27 | 103.7% | 33.8% | 30.1% | -20.7% | 1.7% | 3.1% | -13.7% |
| Alameda | $695,000 | $742,084 | 37 | 27 | 103.9% | 32.4% | 40.7% | -21.3% | -8.6% | -5.3% | 37.0% |
| Albany | $727,000 | $718,762 | 13 | 17 | 116.3% | 14.3% | 2.6% | 116.7% | 11.1% | 10.3% | 30.0% |
| Berkeley | $820,000 | $980,964 | 57 | 26 | 101.9% | 16.1% | 17.6% | 21.3% | 1.2% | 4.5% | 11.8% |
| Castro Valley | $563,000 | $585,514 | 36 | 17 | 99.7% | 10.8% | 12.2% | -16.3% | -7.4% | -3.8% | -36.8% |
| Dublin | $800,500 | $838,632 | 30 | 32 | 101.6% | 41.2% | 37.5% | -14.3% | 8.2% | 5.2% | -14.3% |
| Fremont | $682,500 | $784,926 | 100 | 25 | 101.0% | 16.7% | 16.7% | -18.0% | -5.3% | 0.4% | -26.5% |
| Hayward | $420,000 | $456,365 | 71 | 26 | 103.2% | 32.1% | 31.5% | -25.3% | 3.3% | 5.0% | -13.4% |
| Livermore | $629,000 | $693,653 | 71 | 24 | 101.3% | 40.2% | 32.2% | -26.0% | 14.4% | 14.3% | -5.3% |
| Newark | $552,500 | $524,688 | 16 | 54 | 101.7% | 24.7% | 17.3% | -15.8% | -2.2% | -12.5% | -20.0% |
| Oakland | $550,000 | $583,204 | 179 | 28 | 104.3% | 58.3% | 33.4% | -29.5% | 0.1% | -2.4% | -16.4% |
| Piedmont | $1,147,500 | $1,414,875 | 8 | 30 | 109.9% | -0.6% | -3.8% | -11.1% | -12.1% | -21.6% | -11.1% |
| Pleasanton | $840,000 | $1,022,106 | 50 | 39 | 95.5% | 16.9% | 28.4% | -7.4% | -2.3% | 11.4% | -10.7% |
| San Leandro | $425,000 | $465,385 | 53 | 25 | 104.6% | 25.0% | 28.5% | -22.1% | 0.5% | 3.5% | -7.0% |
| San Lorenzo | $415,000 | $426,900 | 10 | 26 | 103.7% | 28.5% | 32.1% | -41.2% | 2.1% | 5.5% | -44.4% |
| Union City | $590,000 | $631,760 | 25 | 24 | 102.7% | 23.2% | 32.3% | -37.5% | 2.6% | 5.5% | -7.4% |
| November Sales Statistics | |||||||||||
| (Condos/Town Homes) | |||||||||||
| Prices | Unit | Change from last year | Change from last month | ||||||||
| Median | Average | Sales | DOM | SP/LP | Median | Average | Sales | Median | Average | Sales | |
| County | $387,750 | $404,235 | 210 | 25 | 102.1% | 30.8% | 25.7% | -18.6% | -7.5% | -5.1% | -19.8% |
| Alameda | $475,000 | $452,905 | 21 | 20 | 101.6% | 23.4% | 18.7% | 61.5% | -14.0% | -7.8% | -8.7% |
| Albany | $389,000 | $396,333 | 3 | 23 | 101.8% | 29.2% | 39.5% | 0.0% | 12.5% | 15.9% | -50.0% |
| Berkeley | $490,000 | $498,114 | 7 | 29 | 104.3% | 50.7% | 36.3% | 0.0% | -8.9% | 1.6% | -12.5% |
| Castro Valley | $335,000 | $385,800 | 5 | 45 | 101.0% | -10.7% | 7.7% | -37.5% | -32.8% | -41.6% | 150.0% |
| Dublin | $489,000 | $479,726 | 23 | 24 | 100.1% | 22.3% | 25.3% | 0.0% | -1.1% | 3.4% | -17.9% |
| Emeryville | $349,000 | $348,854 | 13 | 24 | 101.0% | 15.6% | 9.0% | 85.7% | -12.8% | -13.1% | 30.0% |
| Fremont | $428,750 | $449,564 | 28 | 29 | 100.7% | 30.7% | 19.0% | -28.2% | -2.9% | 1.3% | -46.2% |
| Hayward | $293,500 | $296,286 | 14 | 29 | 101.3% | 48.2% | 47.9% | -48.1% | -2.9% | 3.0% | -6.7% |
| Livermore | $390,000 | $365,493 | 14 | 28 | 101.5% | 20.0% | 29.1% | 16.7% | -13.8% | -3.7% | -26.3% |
| Newark | $340,000 | $340,500 | 7 | 27 | 100.1% | 28.4% | 30.3% | -36.4% | -2.9% | 2.4% | -30.0% |
| Oakland | $360,000 | $392,375 | 51 | 23 | 105.9% | 22.0% | 18.0% | -21.5% | -12.8% | -15.3% | -3.8% |
| Pleasanton | $393,500 | $395,692 | 13 | 29 | 99.0% | 12.4% | 11.6% | -31.6% | -10.8% | -9.5% | 0.0% |
| San Leandro | $282,500 | $283,250 | 4 | 18 | 101.1% | 66.2% | 55.1% | -20.0% | 0.1% | -2.6% | -63.6% |
| Union City | $435,000 | $419,600 | 5 | 26 | 101.1% | 60.5% | 59.7% | -72.2% | 18.3% | 25.5% | -50.0% |
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