Statistical Tables | Economic Mayday

Trends at a Glance
(Single-family Homes)
  Apr 20 Mar 20 Apr 19
Median Price: $1,040,000 $960,000 $935,000
Average Price: $1,108,975 $1,107,794 $1,052,165
Home Sales:           595           613           937
SP/LP Ratio: 106.2% 106.7% 105.7%
Days on Market:             17             19             23
(Condos/Townhomes)
  Apr 20 Mar 20 Apr 19
Median Price: $717,000 $650,000 $620,000
Average Price: $719,052 $682,496 $641,226
Condo Sales:           192           270           299
SP/LP Ratio: 103.1% 103.2% 102.6%
Days on Market:             22             23             28

Sales Plunge, Prices Rise

Sales of single-family, re-sale homes tanked in April compared to last year. I think we all expected this amidst the Covid-19 pandemic. Home sales were down 36.5%. There were 595 homes sold in Alameda County last month. The average since 2000 is 921.

We expect home sales to continue dropping for the next two months.

The median sales price for single-family, re-sale homes was up, year-over-year, for the eighth month in a row. It rose 11.2%. It was up 8.3% from March.

The average sales price set a new, all-time high last month. It was up 5.4%, year-over-year. It was up 0.1% from March.

The sales price to list price ratio fell from 106.7% to 106.2%. Multiple offers are on the rise.

Homes sold in seventeen days, down nineteen days in March. This is the time from being listed to going under contract.

The average sales price for condos set a new record high last month. It was up 5.4% from March. It was up 12.1% year-over-year. The median sales price also set a new high in April. It was up 10.3% from March, and, it was up 15.6% year-over-year.

The sales price to list price ratio for condos fell from 103.2% to 103.1%.

Condo sales were down 35.8% from last year, and, they were down 28.9% from March.

Condos sold in twenty-two days. 

Momentum Statistics

Sales momentum…

for single-family homes fell 4.2 points to –8.9.

Pricing momentum…

for single-family homes was up 1.2 points to +1.7.

Our momentum statistics are based on 12-month moving averages to eliminate monthly and seasonal variations.

This is an extraordinarily tough market for buyers. It's important to be calm and realistic. If you don't know what to do or where to begin, give me a call and let's discuss your situation and your options.

If you’re looking to sell, call me for a comprehensive Comparative Market Analysis.

In the chart below…

the blue area shows momentum for home sales while the red line shows momentum for pending sales of single-family, re-sale homes. The purple line shows momentum for the median price.

This is an extraordinarily tough market for buyers. It's important to be calm and realistic. If you don't know what to do or where to begin, give me a call and let's discuss your situation and your options.

 

Alameda County Days on Market

Alameda County Days on Market

The real estate market is very hard to generalize. It is a market made up of many micro markets. For complete information on a particular neighborhood or property, call me.

If I can help you devise a strategy, call or click the buying or selling link in the menu to the left.

Monthly Statistics

Complete monthly sales statistics for the Alameda County are below. Monthly graphs are available for each city in the county.

April Sales Statistics
(Single-family Homes)
  Prices Unit     Change from last year Change from last month
Area Median Average Sales DOM SP/LP Median Average Sales Median Average Sales
County $1,040,000 $1,108,975 595 17 106.2% 11.2% 5.4% -36.5% 8.3% 0.1% -2.9%
Alameda $1,300,000 $1,308,200 15 11 113.7% 12.1% 8.0% 114.3% 8.3% 6.0% -31.8%
Albany $1,200,000 $1,160,600 5 12 113.7% 3.4% -4.2% -28.6% -40.0% -42.0% 400.0%
Berkeley $1,375,000 $1,424,181 31 17 111.2% 4.2% 4.7% -34.0% -6.1% -12.9% 10.7%
Castro Valley $979,500 $1,051,617 30 11 99.1% 7.0% 9.8% -23.1% 6.1% 12.0% -11.8%
Dublin $1,110,359 $1,134,199 46 18 99.3% -7.1% -4.2% 21.1% 7.3% 4.6% 53.3%
Fremont $1,234,500 $1,351,555 90 13 99.6% 1.4% 3.5% -21.7% 3.4% -1.1% 18.4%
Hayward $744,000 $776,256 52 11 100.5% 6.0% 1.6% -49.0% 0.5% 0.1% -3.7%
Livermore $817,500 $938,413 62 14 98.6% 2.2% 5.7% -29.5% 0.2% 4.7% -6.1%
Newark $995,000 $996,760 12 16 98.0% 8.9% 4.4% -66.7% -3.4% -6.4% -61.3%
Oakland $957,000 $1,042,327 137 22 110.2% 19.6% 8.9% -41.5% 18.1% 2.8% -2.8%
Piedmont $2,200,000 $2,065,000 9 10 103.4% -7.3% -18.2% -43.8% -27.8% -35.7% -25.0%
Pleasanton $1,255,000 $1,410,965 44 32 99.7% 4.6% -0.9% -36.2% 3.7% 6.5% -6.4%
San Leandro $735,000 $768,218 29 11 103.0% 2.2% 5.1% -44.2% -0.3% 0.5% -23.7%
San Lorenzo $715,000 $702,318 11 13 103.8% 8.8% 6.8% -50.0% -2.4% -3.5% 37.5%
Union City $965,000 $961,900 21 7 98.4% 6.6% 2.7% -44.7% 2.4% 0.8% -8.7%

 

April Sales Statistics
(Condos/Town Homes)
  Prices Unit     Change from last year Change from last month
  Median Average Sales DOM SP/LP Median Average Sales Median Average Sales
County $717,000 $719,052 192 22 103.1% 15.6% 12.1% -35.8% 5.4% 10.3% -28.9%
Alameda $787,000 $821,889 9 14 105.0% 1.5% 10.6% -30.8% 14.2% 8.6% 80.0%
Albany $515,000 $586,000 3 83 105.1% -1.2% 10.7% -25.0% 11.1% -2.4% 50.0%
Berkeley $847,000 $829,500 6 36 110.5% 12.9% 2.2% -14.3% -3.5% 1.9% 20.0%
Castro Valley $682,000 $697,500 8 30 103.2% 3.7% -0.8% 0.0% 13.7% 8.3% -11.1%
Dublin $857,500 $853,456 14 17 100.4% 28.1% 25.6% -63.2% 23.2% 35.7% -26.3%
Emeryville $420,000 $513,129 7 29 97.1% -30.0% -24.0% -46.2% -8.1% -19.3% -41.7%
Fremont $716,500 $748,188 36 17 102.0% 23.5% 21.5% -2.7% -8.0% -12.6% 5.9%
Hayward $550,000 $572,356 13 27 104.3% 8.9% 10.2% -50.0% -3.7% -9.8% -61.8%
Livermore $655,000 $609,792 12 43 99.6% 3.6% -0.7% -57.1% 0.5% 7.8% -60.0%
Newark $720,000 $780,429 17 9 102.0% 10.9% 12.4% 21.4% 15.4% 6.0% 41.7%
Oakland $720,000 $757,947 49 22 105.4% 10.8% 15.0% -14.0% 7.4% 0.0% -16.9%
Pleasanton $732,554 $754,527 4 13 102.3% 12.7% 11.0% -80.0% 8.3% 12.7% -69.2%
San Leandro $510,000 $539,000 10 13 101.7% 9.1% 11.8% -28.6% -4.8% -15.0% 42.9%
Union City $560,000 $512,667 3 23 102.2% -20.6% -22.0% -72.7% -7.7% 16.9% -76.9%

Economic Mayday

May 1, 2020 -- The figures coming in continue to be truly staggering, and not just in the United States. The Eurozone GDP figure for the first quarter of 2020 was released this week, and the 3.8% decline from the first quarter was the largest ever for the European Union tracking series, which dates to 1995. This translates to an annualized 14.4% decline, so the drop-off was quite severe, and far in excess of the decline in the U.S., which posted it's own sharp contraction with a 4.8% annualized drop in GDP for the same period.

The housing market will struggle to provide any contribution to economic growth for at least a time, although some sales are taking place. The National Association of Realtors reported their Pending Home Sales Index for April, and the figure didn't drop to zero, but rather showed a 20.8% month-to-month decline in activity from March as well as a 16.5% decline from the same period a year ago. It is the height of the spring housing market season, and while workarounds, virtual open houses and more will help support activity and sales, it's a balky process and not as familiar for many potential buyers and sellers, and only the most motivated participants will try to engage it.

Still, the Mortgage Bankers Association noted that applications for purchase-money mortgages were up in the week ending April 24, with the 11.6% gain a second consecutive increase. This was the first back-to-back gain since the first two weeks of the year, and at least shows a little sign of life. Applications for refinancing slipped, but as mortgage rates dropped to new "all time" lows this week again, odds favor that at least some homeowners with jobs and not having trouble making existing payments may jump in to the market. How many fit this population is unclear; lots of in-place mortgages have interest rates not all that far from today's levels.

In most areas, construction has been considered an "essential" function, so many projects continued apace. Construction spending increased in March, rising 0.9%, powered higher by outlays for residential structures (+2.3%) and public-works spending (+1.6%). Commercial, retail and industrial outlays declined by 1.3% and those sectors will likely continue to be a drag as offices and stores remain empty and closed, with significant concerns about how many will re-open once they are allowed to do so.

Mortgage rates slipped a little more than we expected this week, and appear to be settling down somewhat more, arguably for a number of reasons. Lenders are working through the surge of refinance business from March and don't need to price as defensively to meter inbound business; recent announcements that give servicers some clarity as to their obligations to manage forbearance costs help, too, as does the change in regulation that allows Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to purchase loans that have fallen into forbearance shortly after being originated. As well, the Fed's continuing pledge to purchase Treasuries and MBS in whatever amounts are needed to ensure market function completes the circle to a degree. Rates are low, and if a lender originates a loan that quickly sours, they wont be stuck with it; servicers with loans that have gone sour don't have obligations to forward payments to the loan's owner for longer than four months, and the level of new business coming in to lender doors (virtually, of course) is at a more manageable level. If all these components continue along, odds favor somewhat lower rates as we move forward, for at least a time.

With rates a little lower than expected this week, there's likely somewhat less of a decline on tap next week, but a decline does seem in the offing. Call it a 5-6 basis point decline in the average offered rate for a conforming 30-year fixed rate mortgage as reported by Freddie Mac come next Thursday morning.