Statistical Tables | Turning The Page

Trends at a Glance
(Single-family Homes)
  Dec 20 Nov 20 Dec 19
Median Price: $1,067,000 $1,055,000 $880,000
Average Price: $1,174,488 $1,147,577 $996,386
Home Sales:             1,092             1,078                787
SP/LP Ratio: 106.5% 108.1% 103.3%
Days on Market:                 18                 14                 33
(Condos/Townhomes)
  Dec 20 Nov 20 Dec 19
Median Price: $642,240 $660,000 $620,750
Average Price: $680,040 $689,017 $647,548
Condo Sales:                356                339                272
SP/LP Ratio: 102.5% 102.1% 100.5%
Days on Market:                 28                 24                 40

Home Sales Prices End Year at New Highs

The median sales price for single-family, re-sale homes set a new high in December. It was up, year-over-year, for the sixteenth month in a row. It rose 21.3%. That is the 5th time the median sales price has set a new high this year.

The average sales price also set a new high last month. It was up 17.9%, year-over-year.

The sales price to list price ratio dropped from 108.2% to 106.5%.

Sales of single-family, re-sale homes continued to rise in December, jumping 38.8% from last year. That’s the sixth month in a row home sales have been higher than the year before. There were 1,092 homes sold in Alameda County last month. The average since 2000 is 921.

Homes sold in eighteen days. This is the time from being listed to going under contract.

The average sales price for condos was up 5% year-over-year. The median sales price was up 3.5% year-over-year.

The sales price to list price ratio for condos rose from 102.1% to 102.5%.

Condo sales were up 30.9% from last year. There were 356 condos sold.

Condos sold on average in twenty-eight days.

Momentum Statistics

Sales momentum…

for single-family homes rose 1.6 points to –0.5.

Pricing momentum…

for single-family homes was up 1.1 points to +9.5.

Our momentum statistics are based on 12-month moving averages to eliminate monthly and seasonal variations.

This is an extraordinarily tough market for buyers. It's important to be calm and realistic. If you don't know what to do or where to begin, give me a call and let's discuss your situation and your options.

If you’re looking to sell, call me for a comprehensive Comparative Market Analysis.

In the chart below…

the blue area shows momentum for home sales while the red line shows momentum for pending sales of single-family, re-sale homes. The purple line shows momentum for the median price.

This is an extraordinarily tough market for buyers. It's important to be calm and realistic. If you don't know what to do or where to begin, give me a call and let's discuss your situation and your options.

 

Alameda County Days on Market

Alameda County Days on Market

The real estate market is very hard to generalize. It is a market made up of many micro markets. For complete information on a particular neighborhood or property, call me.

If I can help you devise a strategy, call or click the buying or selling link in the menu to the left.

Monthly Statistics

Complete monthly sales statistics for the Alameda County are below. Monthly graphs are available for each city in the county.

December Sales Statistics
(Single-family Homes)
  Prices Unit     Change from last year Change from last month
Area Median Average Sales DOM SP/LP Median Average Sales Median Average Sales
County $1,067,000 $1,174,488 1,092 18 106.5% 21.3% 17.9% 38.8% 1.1% 2.3% 1.3%
Alameda $1,264,000 $1,259,682 50 16 107.3% 12.4% 3.1% 150.0% 4.2% -2.2% 13.6%
Albany $1,375,000 $1,345,000 3 4 124.3% 52.8% 24.2% 0.0% 31.0% 20.4% -50.0%
Berkeley $1,426,250 $1,661,804 56 22 109.6% 12.5% 14.8% 33.3% 5.6% 12.6% -12.5%
Castro Valley $1,107,500 $1,127,300 48 14 107.0% 24.3% 23.6% 71.4% 8.0% 6.6% -12.7%
Dublin $1,285,000 $1,332,978 71 19 103.4% 32.6% 29.7% 102.9% 9.8% 5.9% 7.6%
Fremont $1,286,000 $1,417,369 125 14 105.7% 22.8% 27.1% 5.9% 2.5% 6.7% 7.8%
Hayward $820,000 $886,684 104 19 104.4% 16.5% 10.4% 15.6% 0.3% -0.1% 26.8%
Livermore $975,000 $1,058,422 109 10 104.7% 25.6% 21.7% 53.5% 6.0% 1.8% -11.4%
Newark $1,025,000 $1,091,970 33 14 103.8% 25.0% 28.0% 32.0% -10.5% -6.4% 13.8%
Oakland $865,000 $985,857 276 25 111.6% 4.8% 8.3% 25.5% -9.0% -7.0% -0.7%
Piedmont $2,425,000 $2,504,176 17 19 106.4% 4.8% -6.7% 183.3% -4.0% -6.6% 54.5%
Pleasanton $1,445,500 $1,740,909 72 12 102.5% 14.0% 20.2% 56.5% 7.1% 18.6% -7.7%
San Leandro $785,000 $802,327 73 17 105.1% 11.3% 12.2% 121.2% -0.8% -1.6% 4.3%
San Lorenzo $765,000 $747,863 21 17 104.5% 8.2% 5.1% 5.0% 6.1% 2.4% -12.5%
Union City $1,146,000 $1,156,966 29 10 105.5% 34.3% 29.6% 0.0% 5.4% 0.7% -3.3%

 

December Sales Statistics
(Condos/Town Homes)
  Prices Unit     Change from last year Change from last month
  Median Average Sales DOM SP/LP Median Average Sales Median Average Sales
County $642,240 $680,040 356 28 102.5% 3.5% 5.0% 30.9% -1.3% -2.7% 5.0%
Alameda $810,000 $800,827 27 19 104.9% 14.9% 15.1% 92.9% -1.8% 1.3% 8.0%
Albany $651,000 $651,000 2 32 99.8% 22.8% 9.6% -60.0% 9.8% 14.2% -50.0%
Berkeley $700,000 $796,438 11 21 104.6% -24.7% -5.2% 37.5% -4.0% -19.5% 37.5%
Castro Valley $725,000 $716,091 11 10 104.0% -17.4% -10.0% 37.5% 9.1% 14.2% 120.0%
Dublin $880,000 $792,009 26 14 101.5% 36.0% 19.2% 30.0% 7.5% 25.7% -25.7%
Emeryville $499,000 $537,464 17 47 101.0% -27.2% -17.1% 88.9% -9.3% -8.0% 41.7%
Fremont $710,000 $750,830 57 33 101.1% 0.4% 7.4% 18.8% -6.5% -15.5% 54.1%
Hayward $565,000 $589,696 49 32 102.8% 0.9% -0.3% 48.5% 8.6% 8.7% 25.6%
Livermore $681,500 $662,694 24 16 102.6% 6.5% 4.3% 50.0% 0.7% 0.4% 9.1%
Newark $595,000 $689,500 8 32 100.2% 14.4% 27.2% -46.7% -3.8% -12.5% -42.9%
Oakland $630,000 $645,776 90 29 102.9% 4.7% 0.1% 109.3% -7.2% -4.5% 1.1%
Pleasanton $649,000 $661,393 14 33 100.9% -14.0% -8.1% -12.5% -6.8% -7.3% -39.1%
San Leandro $462,500 $456,250 4 28 104.4% -11.6% -14.0% -77.8% -12.0% 0.5% -63.6%
Union City $633,000 $662,974 14 32 102.7% 10.1% 16.2% -17.6% 12.7% 15.1% 7.7%

Turning The Page

December 31, 2020 -- A year ago, when the calendar first turned to 2020, it's a fair bet that no one could see what was coming, or know how profoundly one little germ could change our lives. The coronavirus outbreak, epidemic and then pandemic upended everything across the globe, and even as we strive for a semblance of normalcy, it's not done yet just yet. You'll be able to witness the latest effects this evening, as normally-packed live celebrations of the change of year in cities around the world will be thinner, remotely generated and socially-distanced. "On January 1, 2021, for the first time every, hindsight will actually be 2020", according to a popular internet meme, and there's little doubt that many people will be happy to see it go.

With one country after another closing, and uncertainty and risks skyrocketing, investors got spooked and came to a point of selling everything to move to cash; interest rates spiked, financial markets became unhinged and central banks across the world moved into emergency positions, slashing rates, buying bonds and opening up new lending and market-support facilities, moving to liquefy every market and be the buyer of last resort for a range of assets if need be. The market panic was quelled, and a depression likely averted. Lockdowns ensured that the economies of many countries would fall into record-setting recession for a time, only to quickly (if partially) emerge.

As they did, unprecedented opportunities arose for homeowners. For those in difficult straits, and with the experience of at least some lessons learned in the last housing bust, a nearly instant forbearance program for homeowners was released, and without even the burden of proof of hardship. Millions signed up; a core of the most troubled homeowners (numbering about 2.8 million) yet remain in forbearance. For others who experienced no payment troubles, opportunities to refinance at record low rates -- multiple times -- appeared. Freddie Mac's formal all-time low for a conforming 30-year (3.31%) FRM was touched in mid-April, broken by the end of the of the month a new record low was set in 17 weeks since then, falling to as low 2.66% near the end of the year.

Potential homebuyers took notice, too. The year began with an early start on the spring homebuying season with a solid winter showing for sales, but that came to a relative standstill in March through May, only to revive with vigor and then some as the economy re-opened through the summer. The delayed action of the spring market was joined by additional demand from second home buyers looking to escape to remote locations, away from virus and strife, and by buyers who could now work remotely and so no longer felt constricted by proximity to center-city workspaces. With competition for houses fierce and existing home prices rising sharply, it's also likely that some demand has been "advanced" from the coming year in order to grab a home before costs increased further.

With the existing home market tight and expensive, and possibly with commuting to work far less of a concern, sales of new homes also enjoyed a strong period during the mid-part of 2020, but sales are settling back to a very solid (if less frenetic) trend as the year turns. Before a pandemic dip last spring, sales of new homes had been in a 10-year uptrend, and seem poised to return to that kind of steady, solid (if unspectacular) improvement now that the pandemic distortion in sales has cycled through.

Existing home sales have started to cool a bit from heady annualized levels too, although that's to be expected as the winter months kick in. The spring-bumped-into-summer housing season has passed, and while there is still plenty of demand there is little supply to be had, and even fewer homes are put up for sale once the onset of the extended holiday (and then winter) season begins. The National Association of Realtors Pending Home Sales Index contracted again in November, declining by 2.6%, a third consecutive decline. Compared to a year ago, though, contract signings are still some 16.4% higher, and if we weigh this change against sales levels last December/January, it looks like this will translate into a 6.25 million (or so) annualized rate of sale. October's 6.86 million (annual) was the recent peak, and sales are likely to continue to cool somewhat until the next spring cycle kicks up again.