Statistical Tables | Panic. Pandemic. "Panicdemic?"

Trends at a Glance
(Single-family Homes)
  Feb 20 Jan 20 Feb 19
Median Price: $945,000 $875,000 $860,000
Average Price: $1,049,497 $965,842 $946,104
Home Sales: 462 431 532
SP/LP Ratio: 105.0% 102.3% 103.8%
Days on Market: 28 38 30
(Condos/Townhomes)
  Feb 20 Jan 20 Feb 19
Median Price: $675,000 $644,000 $617,500
Average Price: $693,700 $660,352 $641,618
Condo Sales: 190 162 180
SP/LP Ratio: 102.1% 100.3% 102.8%
Days on Market: 33 41 29

Home Prices Up, Sales Down in February

Sales of single-family, re-sale homes were down 13.2%, year-over-year. Sales were up 7.2% from January. There were 462 homes sold last month.

The median sales price for single-family, re-sale homes was up, year-over-year, for the sixth month in a row. It rose 9.9%. It was up 8% from January.

The average sales price was up 10.9%, year-over-year. It was up 8.7% from January.

The sales price to list price ratio rose from 102.3% to 105%. Multiple offers are on the rise.

Homes sold in twenty-eight days, down ten days from January. This is the time from being listed to going under contract.

The average sales prices for condos was up 5.1% from January. It was up 8.1% year-over-year. The median sales price was up 4.8% from January, and, it was up 9.3% year-over-year.

The sales price to list price ratio for condos rose from 100.3% to 102.1%.

Condo sales were up 5.6% from last year, and, they were up 17.3% from January.

Condos sold in thirty-three days.

Momentum Statistics

Sales momentum…

for single-family homes fell 0.8 of a point to –3.7.

Pricing momentum…

for single-family homes was up 0.5 of a point to –0.3.

Our momentum statistics are based on 12-month moving averages to eliminate monthly and seasonal variations.

This is an extraordinarily tough market for buyers. It's important to be calm and realistic. If you don't know what to do or where to begin, give me a call and let's discuss your situation and your options.

If you’re looking to sell, call me for a comprehensive Comparative Market Analysis.

In the chart below…

the blue area shows momentum for home sales while the red line shows momentum for pending sales of single-family, re-sale homes. The purple line shows momentum for the median price.

This is an extraordinarily tough market for buyers. It's important to be calm and realistic. If you don't know what to do or where to begin, give me a call and let's discuss your situation and your options.

 

Alameda County Days on Market

Alameda County Days on Market

The real estate market is very hard to generalize. It is a market made up of many micro markets. For complete information on a particular neighborhood or property, call me.

If I can help you devise a strategy, call or click the buying or selling link in the menu to the left.

Monthly Statistics

Complete monthly sales statistics for the Alameda County are below. Monthly graphs are available for each city in the county.

February Sales Statistics
(Single-family Homes)
  Prices Unit     Change from last year Change from last month
Area Median Average Sales DOM SP/LP Median Average Sales Median Average Sales
County $945,000 $1,049,497 462 28 105.0% 9.9% 10.9% -13.2% 8.0% 8.7% 7.2%
Alameda $1,100,000 $1,078,346 13 45 113.7% -6.3% -8.1% 550.0% -11.1% -9.9% 62.5%
Albany $1,180,000 $1,183,750 4 13 113.7% 0.6% 0.9% 100.0% -21.2% -21.0% 100.0%
Berkeley $1,342,500 $1,429,739 24 23 111.2% 3.3% 11.6% -11.1% 7.4% 11.2% -11.1%
Castro Valley $909,060 $971,754 28 33 99.1% -0.6% 3.4% 0.0% 1.0% 5.4% 3.7%
Dublin $1,227,500 $1,257,915 26 17 99.3% 18.6% 17.9% -18.8% 24.0% 18.6% 100.0%
Fremont $1,230,000 $1,364,718 67 24 99.6% 10.8% 16.7% 21.8% 10.3% 9.7% 36.7%
Hayward $710,000 $750,590 52 34 100.5% 1.4% 2.8% -10.3% -1.0% 0.0% 4.0%
Livermore $873,000 $939,295 51 33 98.6% 9.8% 3.3% -12.1% 4.1% 2.1% 2.0%
Newark $978,500 $997,270 20 17 98.0% 10.3% 8.9% 25.0% 7.5% 10.0% 53.8%
Oakland $790,000 $909,551 101 34 110.2% 12.9% 10.1% -24.1% 11.3% 9.6% -12.2%
Piedmont $3,050,000 $3,450,000 3 9 103.4% 72.7% 87.8% -50.0% -6.2% 6.2% 200.0%
Pleasanton $1,200,162 $1,347,942 24 15 99.7% 6.3% 3.5% -27.3% -1.2% -7.9% 0.0%
San Leandro $700,000 $748,895 19 27 103.0% 6.2% 9.3% -48.6% 1.7% 1.3% -26.9%
San Lorenzo $722,500 $680,600 10 8 103.8% 20.4% 16.3% -23.1% 7.8% -0.2% -23.1%
Union City $900,000 $941,319 18 32 98.4% 3.3% 3.7% 5.9% 1.1% 0.7% 38.5%

 

February Sales Statistics
(Condos/Town Homes)
  Prices Unit     Change from last year Change from last month
  Median Average Sales DOM SP/LP Median Average Sales Median Average Sales
County $675,000 $693,700 190 33 102.1% 9.3% 8.1% 5.6% 5.1% 4.8% 17.3%
Alameda $720,000 $841,100 10 18 113.7% -0.8% 13.1% -44.4% 16.9% -0.7% 100.0%
Albany $585,000 $590,000 3 83 99.2% n/a n/a n/a -25.9% -26.5% 50.0%
Berkeley $757,500 $757,500 2 7 102.1% 8.2% -2.5% -66.7% -10.7% 4.5% -71.4%
Castro Valley $648,000 $712,061 7 39 101.8% 13.7% 10.8% 40.0% 19.3% 8.0% 75.0%
Dublin $635,000 $638,732 13 21 100.3% -15.9% -9.4% -23.5% -6.1% -8.0% -7.1%
Emeryville $485,000 $516,200 5 25 101.9% -18.1% -10.5% -50.0% -8.7% -8.0% -37.5%
Fremont $739,000 $837,317 34 27 100.6% 8.7% 19.4% 61.9% 10.3% -11.0% 36.0%
Hayward $645,000 $621,940 26 25 99.3% 9.0% 5.8% 18.2% 7.4% 14.2% 13.0%
Livermore $662,500 $602,663 12 76 99.3% 10.6% 3.1% -7.7% 4.0% 21.6% 20.0%
Newark $880,000 $880,000 1 66 100.6% 47.9% 40.5% -83.3% 50.6% 58.6% -83.3%
Oakland $689,000 $694,974 49 34 105.2% 10.1% 4.1% 14.0% 6.0% 10.2% 40.0%
Pleasanton $632,000 $663,400 10 31 100.2% -7.4% -2.4% 66.7% -18.0% -22.2% 100.0%
San Leandro $520,000 $570,420 10 64 98.5% -1.8% 12.9% 25.0% 3.0% 4.1% 0.0%
Union City $605,000 $662,138 7 17 98.3% 24.4% 27.7% -41.7% 0.5% -6.8% -12.5%

Panic. Pandemic. "Panicdemic?"

Feb. 28, 2020-- It would seem that the only thing that is spreading faster than COVID-19 is the fear of the damage being done to economies across the globe. Even though the spread of the virus has not yet quite been called a pandemic, investors have moved from concern to panic, with major stock indexes moving into "correction" territory in just a few short trading sessions. Of course, some pundits have proffered that a part of the mass exit from stocks might be related to the Democratic party front-runner's potential policies, but the effects of any candidates' platform of course can't be realized until after they have actually won both the nomination and the election.

As such, it's all virus, all the time. The market panic over the possible pandemic left us considering that we need a new word to describe the market's actions: Panicdemic, defined as a widespread fire sale of stocks by investors based purely on the fear of what might come to pass. While imperfect, its as good a portmanteau as any.

Mortgage rates that are likely to creep nearer to "all-time" lows probably won't do much to improve sales of existing homes, where inventories of homes for sale are thin, but may enhance the uptrend in sales of new homes. In January, new home sales rose by 7.9%, a figure plausibly goosed by favorable weather conditions for the month. The 764,000 annual rate of sale was good enough to be a 12-plus year high, and lower mortgage helped provide at least some offset to cover the 13.4% month-to-month increase in the median price of a home sold. With the bump in sales, the number of units on hand relative to current sales slid back to 5.1 months, a little lower than is considered optimal, and there are 323,000 units built and ready to be sold and so this market segment is in healthier shape for potential homebuyers as the spring buying season kicks in. Inventories of existing homes for sale seem likely to be trimmed further if the National Association of Realtors index covering pending home sales pans out -- the January increase of 5.2% comes at a time of already-record-low numbers of homes for sale. Hopefully, it is that new listings are happening but are being snapped up; otherwise there will be even less available for potential homebuyers to pick over.

Applications for purchase-money mortgages declined for a third consecutive week, according to the Mortgage Banks Association of America, falling by 3.4% in the week ending February 14. This time, however, that decline was accompanied by a decline in applications for refinancing, which dropped a full 8% for the period. The combined effect left applications down by 6.4% for the week, but with interest rates steady to perhaps slightly lower at the moment and the end of the month coming up, it's likely that some fence-sitters will jump into the market again next week.

Unless the economic climate begins to worsen or the Fed begins to make rumblings about a growing potential for an interest rate cut, the best interest rates can do is hang about, with perhaps a slow fade at times of worry or individual reports of softer growth here or there. For the most part, the available data from here and elsewhere doesn't suggest that a significant decline (or increase) can be expected anytime really soon, but with the dark cloud of uncertainty regarding the coronavirus hovering over the globe, there still a greater chance of lower than higher rates regardless of how strong the incoming available data might be.

For next week, we think that the week-ending fade for rates this week will likely pull the averaged offered rate for a conforming 30-year FRM down by a couple of basis points at most, possibly enough to eat up the four basis point increase tallied over the last two weeks. We'll see what comes when Freddie Mac reports new data next Thursday morning.