Statistical Tables | | PRESSURING THE FED

Trends at a Glance
(Single-family Homes)
  May 19 Apr 19 May 18
Median Price: $954,750 $940,000 #######
Average Price: $1,068,427 $1,058,213 #######
Home Sales: 1051 909 1055
SP/LP Ratio: 106.6% 105.8% 109.7%
Days on Market: 20 22 16
(Condos/Townhomes)
  May 19 Apr 19 May 18
Median Price: $630,000 $625,000 $650,125
Average Price: $662,644 $642,871 $672,593
Condo Sales: 353 294 350
SP/LP Ratio: 103.2% 102.6% 107.6%
Days on Market: 23 28 15

Sales & Prices Up from Month Before

 Sales prices for single-family, re-sale homes rose from the month before for the fourth month in a row. The average sales price gained 1.0% from April. Year-over-year, it fell 2.0%. The median price fell 4.5%, year-over-year. It was up 1.6% from April.

The average sales prices for condos was up 3.1% from April. It was down 1.5% year-over-year. The median sales price was up 0.8% from April, but, it was down 3.1% year-over-year.

The sales price to list price ratio remains in triple digits: 106.6% for homes and 103.2% for condos.

Home sales were down 0.4% year-over-year. Sales were up 15.6% from April.

Condo sales were up 0.9% from last year, and, they were up 20.1% from April.

Homes are selling in twenty days from being listed to going under contract. Condos are taking twenty-three days. 

Momentum Statistics

Sales momentum…
for single-family homes fell 0.8 of a point to –4.5.

Pricing momentum…
for single-family homes was down 1.7 points to +2.9.

Our momentum statistics are based on 12-month moving averages to eliminate monthly and seasonal variations.

This is an extraordinarily tough market for buyers. It's important to be calm and realistic. If you don't know what to do or where to begin, give me a call and let's discuss your situation and your options.

If you’re looking to sell, call me for a comprehensive Comparative Market Analysis.

In the chart below…

the blue area shows momentum for home sales while the red line shows momentum for pending sales of single-family, re-sale homes. The purple line shows momentum for the median price.

This is an extraordinarily tough market for buyers. It's important to be calm and realistic. If you don't know what to do or where to begin, give me a call and let's discuss your situation and your options.

 

Alameda County Days on Market

Alameda County Days on Market

The real estate market is very hard to generalize. It is a market made up of many micro markets. For complete information on a particular neighborhood or property, call me.

If I can help you devise a strategy, call or click the buying or selling link in the menu to the left.

Monthly Statistics

Complete monthly sales statistics for the Alameda County are below. Monthly graphs are available for each city in the county.

May Sales Statistics
(Single-family Homes)
  Prices Unit     Change from last year Change from last month
Area Median Average Sales DOM SP/LP Median Average Sales Median Average Sales
County $954,750 $1,068,427 1,051 20 106.6% -4.5% -2.0% -0.4% 1.6% 1.0% 15.6%
Alameda $1,155,500 $1,186,394 40 15 105.0% 13.6% 9.1% 11.1% 2.3% -1.5% 33.3%
Albany $1,010,500 $1,097,100 10 14 120.7% 6.1% 1.4% -9.1% -12.9% -9.5% 42.9%
Berkeley $1,382,500 $1,546,897 74 20 102.8% -4.7% 4.2% 39.6% 5.5% 14.1% 60.9%
Castro Valley $880,000 $933,529 43 20 99.6% -0.6% -2.2% -21.8% -4.5% -3.2% 13.2%
Dublin $1,067,500 $1,122,330 66 22 100.3% -3.0% -0.4% 13.8% -10.3% -4.9% 78.4%
Fremont $1,150,000 $1,262,196 138 21 99.7% -12.5% -9.7% 2.2% -5.9% -3.5% 23.2%
Hayward $708,500 $722,597 89 23 100.1% -3.6% -13.6% -19.8% -0.6% -6.6% -6.3%
Livermore $838,000 $952,991 99 23 99.3% -1.4% 1.2% -22.0% 4.8% 6.8% 15.1%
Newark $927,500 $969,045 42 27 95.0% -6.3% -7.2% 35.5% 0.0% 0.9% 23.5%
Oakland $850,000 $959,364 241 20 108.5% -2.0% -1.2% 9.5% 2.4% -1.1% 5.7%
Piedmont $2,333,500 $2,366,719 16 22 104.5% 8.5% 0.0% 45.5% -0.1% -5.4% 6.7%
Pleasanton $1,271,500 $1,361,571 66 21 97.9% -2.2% -5.4% -20.5% 5.5% -5.1% -1.5%
San Leandro $722,500 $759,596 54 15 100.0% 4.6% 4.9% -15.6% 0.5% 3.9% 3.8%
San Lorenzo $666,400 $674,112 34 15 100.0% -7.4% -3.1% 126.7% 1.4% 2.6% 70.0%
Union City $942,500 $1,003,754 38 22 98.9% -12.3% -9.8% -11.6% 4.1% 7.1% 0.0%

 

May Sales Statistics
(Condos/Town Homes)
  Prices Unit     Change from last year Change from last month
  Median Average Sales DOM SP/LP Median Average Sales Median Average Sales
County $630,000 $662,644 353 23 103.2% -3.1% -1.5% 0.9% 3.1% 0.8% 20.1%
Alameda $753,750 $733,708 12 14 106.0% 1.0% 7.8% -33.3% 4.8% 11.7% -42.9%
Albany $576,500 $597,500 4 24 111.1% -5.5% -2.0% 300.0% 12.8% 10.5% 0.0%
Berkeley $800,000 $780,000 6 48 113.2% 5.4% 5.8% -14.3% -3.9% 6.7% -14.3%
Castro Valley $632,000 $688,286 7 16 101.9% -9.1% -4.2% -36.4% -2.1% -3.9% -12.5%
Dublin $773,000 $729,083 34 24 100.1% 1.0% -3.0% 13.3% 7.0% 12.8% -8.1%
Emeryville $582,500 $598,650 20 20 102.8% -1.3% -3.8% 33.3% -11.4% -2.9% 53.8%
Fremont $675,500 $716,878 60 25 100.8% -11.7% -6.5% 1.7% 16.4% 16.5% 62.2%
Hayward $520,000 $541,038 50 27 101.6% 7.2% 8.4% 35.1% 4.2% 3.0% 92.3%
Livermore $610,000 $609,302 17 25 99.0% -6.3% -2.5% -26.1% -2.0% -3.9% -37.0%
Newark $592,000 $636,262 11 12 102.1% -8.9% -4.1% -35.3% -8.4% -8.8% -21.4%
Oakland $686,000 $730,544 83 22 108.3% 5.4% 4.1% -1.2% 10.0% 4.7% 50.9%
Pleasanton $647,500 $677,306 18 23 100.4% -7.6% -2.4% 0.0% -0.4% -0.4% -10.0%
San Leandro $499,500 $478,286 14 23 100.8% -0.1% -2.9% -6.7% -0.8% 6.8% 0.0%
Union City $571,000 $556,977 15 22 99.5% -5.6% -10.8% 36.4% -15.1% -19.3% 50.0%

PRESSURING THE FED

May 31, 2019 -- With trade and tariff volleying between the U.S. and China already roiling stock markets, a new bit of saber-rattling aimed at Mexico this week sparked a fresh round of selling of equities as investors headed to the relative safety of bonds.

As is they weren't already low, that wash of cash pushed down yields of government bonds across the globe, dropping both German Bunds and Japanese bonds further into negative territory. Of course, U.S. Treasuries also got a strong buy, and the yield on the influential 10-year Treasury was driven down to levels last seen at the end of summer 2017.

According to Freddie Mac, the average offered rate for a conforming 30-year FRM cracked the 4% mark for the first time since January 2018, with a months-long downtrend leaving the benchmark mortgage at 3.99%. It would seem that the downtrend isn't over; at the end of summer 2017, the same barometer was hovering in the three-eighties, and while we might not get there next week, we'll probably be close.

Low mortgage rates aren't doing much to heat up a moderate housing market -- the Mortgage Bankers Association reported a third straight week of declining applications for purchase-money mortgage in the week ending May 24 -- but should give a hearty boost to refinance activity. With already considerable downforce on mortgage rates this week that will certainly spill into next, it looks like we'll see another fair decline for rates on tap, probably something on the order of 8-10 basis points in the 30-year FRM when Freddie Mac reports next Thursday morning (barring any unforeseen outbreak of optimism by investors, of course).