Statistical Tables | Fed Stands Pat, Rates Dip

Trends at a Glance
(Single-family Homes)
  Jul 20 Jun 20 Jul 19
Median Price: $1,027,500 $985,000 $950,000
Average Price: $1,119,646 $1,100,786 $1,054,850
Home Sales:             1,046                804                971
SP/LP Ratio: 104.1% 102.5% 106.1%
Days on Market:                 22                 25                 23
(Condos/Townhomes)
  Jul 20 Jun 20 Jul 19
Median Price: $664,000 $657,500 $620,000
Average Price: $681,569 $668,970 $651,807
Condo Sales:                320                218                294
SP/LP Ratio: 101.3% 100.4% 102.9%
Days on Market:                 31                 29                 24

Sales and Prices Continue to Rise

Sales of single-family, re-sale homes continued to surge in July, jumping 30.1% from June. They were up 7.7% compared to last year. There were 1,046 homes sold in Alameda County last month. The average since 2000 is 921.

The median sales price for single-family, re-sale homes was up, year-over-year, for the eleventh month in a row. It rose 8.2%. It was up 4.3% from June.

The average sales price was up 6.1%, year-over-year. It was up 1.7% from June.

The sales price to list price ratio rose from 102.5% to 104.1%.

Homes sold in twenty-two days, down three days from June. This is the time from being listed to going under contract.

The average sales price for condos rose 1.9% from June. It was up 4.6% year-over-year. The median sales price rose 1% from June, and, it was up 7.1% year-over-year.

The sales price to list price ratio for condos rose from 100.4% to 101.3%.

Condo sales were up 8.8% from last year, and, they were up 46.8% from June.

Condos sold on average in thirty-one days.

Momentum Statistics

Sales momentum…

for single-family homes rose 2.2 points to –15.7.

Pricing momentum…

for single-family homes was up 0.7 of a point to +3.7.

Our momentum statistics are based on 12-month moving averages to eliminate monthly and seasonal variations.

This is an extraordinarily tough market for buyers. It's important to be calm and realistic. If you don't know what to do or where to begin, give me a call and let's discuss your situation and your options.

If you’re looking to sell, call me for a comprehensive Comparative Market Analysis.

In the chart below…

the blue area shows momentum for home sales while the red line shows momentum for pending sales of single-family, re-sale homes. The purple line shows momentum for the median price.

This is an extraordinarily tough market for buyers. It's important to be calm and realistic. If you don't know what to do or where to begin, give me a call and let's discuss your situation and your options.

 

Alameda County Days on Market

Alameda County Days on Market

The real estate market is very hard to generalize. It is a market made up of many micro markets. For complete information on a particular neighborhood or property, call me.

If I can help you devise a strategy, call or click the buying or selling link in the menu to the left.

Monthly Statistics

Complete monthly sales statistics for the Alameda County are below. Monthly graphs are available for each city in the county.

July Sales Statistics
(Single-family Homes)
  Prices Unit     Change from last year Change from last month
Area Median Average Sales DOM SP/LP Median Average Sales Median Average Sales
County $1,027,500 $1,119,646 1,046 22 104.1% 8.2% 6.1% 7.7% 4.3% 1.7% 30.1%
Alameda $1,252,500 $1,293,643 42 17 113.7% 14.1% 11.3% 200.0% 4.4% 8.2% 82.6%
Albany $1,050,000 $1,075,000 9 15 113.7% -4.3% -7.5% -35.7% -16.7% -11.0% -25.0%
Berkeley $1,330,000 $1,492,676 53 19 111.2% -6.7% -2.2% -10.2% 4.3% 12.9% 82.8%
Castro Valley $905,000 $973,461 47 15 99.1% -1.6% 0.8% -4.1% -1.3% 1.3% 20.5%
Dublin $1,146,000 $1,176,827 60 17 99.3% 7.4% 6.9% 42.9% 13.8% 9.8% 66.7%
Fremont $1,246,000 $1,352,405 126 23 99.6% 10.8% 12.5% 26.0% 2.6% 5.7% 27.3%
Hayward $740,000 $800,116 99 26 100.5% 2.7% 0.3% 5.3% -1.2% -2.0% 37.5%
Livermore $843,000 $941,972 130 17 98.6% 3.8% -3.0% 35.4% -2.0% -1.2% 22.6%
Newark $1,050,000 $1,128,334 29 20 98.0% 6.1% 12.3% -17.1% 11.7% 11.2% 45.0%
Oakland $931,250 $1,048,239 248 25 110.2% 10.1% 6.8% -3.1% -6.0% -3.0% 26.5%
Piedmont $2,425,000 $2,420,000 9 24 103.4% 3.7% -18.9% 50.0% -12.6% -21.1% -10.0%
Pleasanton $1,268,000 $1,433,763 103 28 99.7% 0.6% 7.7% 68.9% 2.3% -1.3% 45.1%
San Leandro $790,000 $821,491 47 15 103.0% 9.7% 8.7% 14.6% 6.8% 5.1% 14.6%
San Lorenzo $730,000 $731,836 19 15 103.8% 7.0% 7.4% -29.6% 2.8% 2.9% 26.7%
Union City $952,500 $988,643 21 18 98.4% 6.7% 6.6% -38.2% 2.7% 3.7% -38.2%

 

July Sales Statistics
(Condos/Town Homes)
  Prices Unit     Change from last year Change from last month
  Median Average Sales DOM SP/LP Median Average Sales Median Average Sales
County $664,000 $681,569 320 31 101.3% 7.1% 4.6% 8.8% 1.9% 1.0% 46.8%
Alameda $764,000 $780,575 17 29 103.0% 9.1% 18.1% -26.1% 1.8% 0.7% 183.3%
Albany $604,500 $574,833 6 19 99.3% 15.7% 8.9% 20.0% -4.2% 0.8% 500.0%
Berkeley $675,000 $683,598 9 26 107.3% -11.5% -27.7% 125.0% -9.5% -0.6% 28.6%
Castro Valley $720,000 $736,166 13 56 102.3% 20.5% 20.2% 116.7% 12.9% 17.6% 160.0%
Dublin $675,000 $716,391 46 25 100.2% 0.4% 6.0% 109.1% 1.7% -1.8% 91.7%
Emeryville $396,200 $407,850 4 14 100.7% -34.8% -32.9% -71.4% -35.9% -42.5% -73.3%
Fremont $828,000 $781,233 51 30 100.8% 9.7% 2.6% 13.3% 4.5% 6.2% 121.7%
Hayward $550,000 $578,070 26 40 100.6% 2.9% 3.7% -35.0% 0.8% -2.7% -3.7%
Livermore $671,500 $650,582 36 44 100.3% 10.1% 9.1% 140.0% 12.4% 14.1% 80.0%
Newark $860,000 $775,722 13 20 101.5% 56.4% 32.2% 160.0% -4.6% 6.4% 116.7%
Oakland $621,000 $638,636 66 30 102.6% -1.0% -6.2% -14.3% -10.4% -0.6% 43.5%
Pleasanton $737,500 $709,591 16 26 99.2% 17.8% 7.7% 60.0% 5.7% 0.8% 14.3%
San Leandro $449,000 $507,111 9 29 101.2% -2.4% 2.5% -50.0% -4.6% -8.4% 12.5%
Union City $590,000 $601,427 7 18 100.2% 4.9% 5.1% -50.0% 8.9% 13.6% 16.7%

Fed Stands Pat, Rates Dip

July 31, 2020 -- With mortgage rates at or near record lows on a number of occasions, it's to be expected that home sales have picked up, even with the coronavirus making like challenging for buyers and sellers alike. We learned last week that existing home sales for June (reflective of activity in late April most of May, when things were re-opening) played a bit of catch-up, rising by 20.7% to 4.72 million (annualized) units sold after a three-month series of declined. This week, the National Association of Realtors Pending Home Sales Index posted a gain of 16.6 percent in June over May. This indicator tracks signed contracts; not all contracts will make it through to closing. However, if they did, this would suggest that sales will kick higher for July and likely August, too, and this would put the annual run rate of sales in the mid-5 million range -- about where they were to start the year and before the pandemic made a mess of things.

New applications for mortgages softened a bit in the week ending July 24, but as this is typically the height of vacation season and mortgage rates have been essentially in the same small range for weeks, there's really not a lot of urgency for borrowers to jump in for a refinance, and purchase activity remains more throttled by a lack of inventory to buy than not. According to the Mortgage Bankers Association, overall applications for mortgage credit slipped 0.8%, with those for purchase-money mortgages easing 1.5% and refinances by 0.4% for the week.

Buying plans for autos remained steady, as did those for appliances, while interest in purchasing houses increased. Record low mortgage rates are likely the cause of that despite the difficult economic climate for many.

Although there continues to be a fair bit of downward pull on mortgage rates, they remain stubbornly tethered at about present levels. Presently, the balance between the poor economic climate and Fed policy stance and bond-buying programs that should be pulling rates down is being offset to a nearly equal degree by the risks of making, servicing and investing in mortgages. Although the number of mortgages in forbearance programs continues to decline ever-so-gently, storm clouds of potential future loss remain prominent, what with unemployment at extraordinary levels and the amount and duration of any future fiscal support for homeowners and renters still unclear. Even if an effective COVID-19 vaccine was announced tomorrow, it will take a year or more to distribute it on a wide enough basis to do much good. Between now and then, there remains a lot of economic difficulty to endure, and this likely spells continuing trouble for participants in the mortgage market, whether homeowner or investor.

For next week, we think there is a good probability that we'll see at least a small decline in mortgage rates. Any move of more than a basis point in the averaged offered rate for a conforming 30-year FRM as reported by Freddie Mac will be a new record, and that's probably what we'll see come next Thursday morning. Whatever the decline may be, it would likely be a whole lot more if risks were abating, but new record lows will have to do, no matter how small the move into new territory it may be.