Statistical Tables | Rearview Mirror

Trends at a Glance
(Single-family Homes)
  Sep 20 Aug 20 Sep 19
Median Price: $1,055,000 $1,034,000 $908,000
Average Price: $1,163,657 $1,133,032 $1,014,481
Home Sales:             1,040             1,040                767
SP/LP Ratio: 106.1% 104.8% 104.1%
Days on Market:                 20                 22                 25
(Condos/Townhomes)
  Sep 20 Aug 20 Sep 19
Median Price: $677,000 $663,500 $625,000
Average Price: $710,747 $682,247 $644,432
Condo Sales:                349                346                279
SP/LP Ratio: 101.7% 101.2% 101.4%
Days on Market:                 25                 30                 33

Home Sales Prices Set New Highs, Again

The median sales price for single-family, re-sale homes was up, year-over-year, for the thirteenth month in a row. It rose 16.2% to set a new record high for the third month in a row.

The average sales price also set a new record high last month. It was up 14.7%, year-over-year.

The sales price to list price ratio rose from 104.8% to 106.1%.

Sales of single-family, re-sale homes continued to rise in September, jumping 35.6% from last year. That’s the third month in a row home sales have been higher than the year before. There were 1,040 homes sold in Alameda County last month. The average since 2000 is 921.

Homes sold in twenty days. This is the time from being listed to going under contract.

The average sales price for condos was up 10.3% year-over-year. The median sales price was up 8.3% year-over-year.

The sales price to list price ratio for condos rose from 101.2% to 101.7%.

Condo sales were up 25.1% from last year. There were 349 condos sold.

Condos sold on average in twenty-five days. 

Momentum Statistics

Sales momentum…

for single-family homes rose 3.3 points to –11.6.

Pricing momentum…

for single-family homes was up 1.1 points to +6.4.

Our momentum statistics are based on 12-month moving averages to eliminate monthly and seasonal variations.

This is an extraordinarily tough market for buyers. It's important to be calm and realistic. If you don't know what to do or where to begin, give me a call and let's discuss your situation and your options.

If you’re looking to sell, call me for a comprehensive Comparative Market Analysis.

In the chart below…

the blue area shows momentum for home sales while the red line shows momentum for pending sales of single-family, re-sale homes. The purple line shows momentum for the median price.

This is an extraordinarily tough market for buyers. It's important to be calm and realistic. If you don't know what to do or where to begin, give me a call and let's discuss your situation and your options.

 

Alameda County Days on Market

Alameda County Days on Market

The real estate market is very hard to generalize. It is a market made up of many micro markets. For complete information on a particular neighborhood or property, call me.

If I can help you devise a strategy, call or click the buying or selling link in the menu to the left.

Monthly Statistics

Complete monthly sales statistics for the Alameda County are below. Monthly graphs are available for each city in the county.

September Sales Statistics
(Single-family Homes)
  Prices Unit     Change from last year Change from last month
Area Median Average Sales DOM SP/LP Median Average Sales Median Average Sales
County $1,055,000 $1,163,657 1,040 20 106.1% 16.2% 14.7% 35.6% 2.0% 2.7% 0.0%
Alameda $1,250,000 $1,367,967 43 25 113.7% 19.0% 7.9% 377.8% 4.2% 4.6% 30.3%
Albany $1,205,000 $1,314,000 7 16 113.7% 14.8% 3.7% -22.2% 1.7% 13.1% 0.0%
Berkeley $1,490,000 $1,636,574 50 20 111.2% 7.7% 17.4% 31.6% 3.5% 6.8% 2.0%
Castro Valley $1,010,000 $1,007,444 59 16 99.1% 18.1% 17.1% 84.4% 5.5% -0.3% 3.5%
Dublin $1,141,091 $1,215,243 46 21 99.3% 8.7% 12.8% 39.4% 1.4% 2.1% -27.0%
Fremont $1,266,000 $1,385,816 153 20 99.6% 12.5% 14.3% 44.3% -0.7% 1.8% -10.5%
Hayward $810,000 $836,126 84 17 100.5% 19.1% 11.1% -11.6% 6.6% 0.2% 13.5%
Livermore $900,000 $996,317 112 16 98.6% 12.5% 13.0% 38.3% -1.6% -2.5% 2.8%
Newark $1,068,500 $1,103,193 26 16 98.0% 11.9% 11.2% -7.1% 10.7% 7.4% -13.3%
Oakland $930,000 $1,047,067 255 21 110.2% 9.4% 7.6% 59.4% 3.3% 7.1% -3.0%
Piedmont $2,500,000 $2,869,727 15 17 103.4% 23.0% 47.6% 87.5% -9.1% 2.1% 25.0%
Pleasanton $1,270,000 $1,482,937 78 32 99.7% 10.4% 10.6% 41.8% 0.2% 4.4% 8.3%
San Leandro $778,000 $808,935 57 16 103.0% 9.6% 12.2% 1.8% 2.9% 3.3% 18.8%
San Lorenzo $710,000 $713,643 28 23 103.8% 6.8% 8.8% 47.4% -2.5% -3.3% 64.7%
Union City $1,070,000 $1,119,934 23 11 98.4% 16.3% 19.8% 4.5% -1.4% -1.3% -25.8%

 

September Sales Statistics
(Condos/Town Homes)
  Prices Unit     Change from last year Change from last month
  Median Average Sales DOM SP/LP Median Average Sales Median Average Sales
County $677,000 $710,747 349 25 101.7% 8.3% 10.3% 25.1% 4.2% 2.0% 0.9%
Alameda $751,500 $720,835 26 26 102.9% 10.5% 5.4% 100.0% -6.0% -1.0% 333.3%
Albany $615,000 $636,200 5 32 100.6% 4.2% 7.1% -28.6% 19.6% 15.6% 150.0%
Berkeley $740,000 $742,737 7 31 106.1% -19.7% -19.7% 40.0% 0.2% 17.5% 40.0%
Castro Valley $730,000 $684,699 8 44 99.5% -9.6% -10.2% 0.0% 11.3% 26.3% 0.0%
Dublin $693,500 $696,474 40 18 100.6% -4.5% -0.6% 53.8% -3.8% -8.5% -13.0%
Emeryville $470,000 $565,778 9 27 100.4% -22.0% -8.4% -18.2% -4.4% -14.3% -43.8%
Fremont $873,000 $873,397 53 19 101.7% 58.9% 41.0% 39.5% 17.1% 20.9% 20.5%
Hayward $605,000 $616,328 32 27 101.7% 6.4% 8.1% -5.9% 10.1% 6.1% -11.1%
Livermore $675,000 $657,288 41 22 100.1% 16.4% 15.0% 215.4% 1.2% -0.7% 5.1%
Newark $881,250 $796,917 18 27 99.1% 60.5% 30.7% 63.6% 10.9% 22.4% 20.0%
Oakland $672,250 $729,392 70 26 103.9% 3.4% 7.6% 18.6% 1.5% -6.0% -13.6%
Pleasanton $600,750 $622,300 20 32 100.0% -19.1% -12.4% 42.9% -15.9% -23.8% 17.6%
San Leandro $478,000 $494,125 8 29 101.2% 0.6% -8.3% -63.6% 3.2% -2.4% 14.3%
Union City $650,000 $664,262 11 31 101.4% 4.2% 6.2% -31.3% 18.0% 15.0% 22.2%

Rearview Mirror

 

October 2, 2020 -- By its nature, economic data can only tell us what has already happened and can even suggest where we might be at the moment, but it cannot tell us where we're going. Even significant previous events that routinely occur -- recessions, for example -- can be triggered by unique events, and so the response in each case (and any outcomes) will of course be different. Although there are some common reactions, such as the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates (or even buying bonds) it's by no means clear that whatever bromide is used will have the intended effect.

One report that looks backwards but may actually suggest the future is the National Association of Realtors Pending Home Sales Index. A tally taken when sales contracts are signed, the PHSI rose to its highest level ever (19-year series) in August, climbing 8.8% over July's value. Actual sales of existing homes are totaled up when the deed changes hands, which can take up to 60 days or so, so this would suggest that existing home sales reports for September and October will show improvement over the current (August) figure of 6 million annual sales, which was a 14-year high. How much above the current level is hard to reckon, since not all contracts make it through the process, and ever-thinning inventories of homes available to buy at increasingly higher prices seems likely to start to temper sales as we move deeper into the fourth quarter.

Construction spending kicked higher in August, driven there by a continuing surge in spending for home construction. The report showed an overall 1.4% increase in outlays for projects of all kinds, but those for housing spiked 3.7% higher (and that on the heels of twin 2.6% gains in June and July). Homebuilding has been on a tear, but that's not the case for non-residential projects, which sported a decline of 0.3% during the month and has seen an increase in just two of the last eight months. Public-works spending edged just 0.1% higher for the month and has been soft for the last three, but since this is an election year we'll see a slight boost when the September and October reports come out.

With Fed policy on hold, fiscal policy at bay for the moment (and perhaps longer, given the short time until the elections) and an economy that is running about as fast at it can given the situation, mortgage rates really don't have reason to move much in either direction at the present time. With that as a backdrop, applications for mortgages are essentially backing and filling, and have largely been doing so for weeks or even months. In the week ending September 25, it was backing again, with the Mortgage Bankers Association reporting a 4.8% decline in new applications for mortgage credit. Requests for purchase-money mortgages eased 1.8%, but those for refinancing dropped by 6.5%, erasing a bit of the previous week's jump.

As mortgage rates are essentially flat, there's not much impetus for homeowners to rush into a refinance, and home purchases depend on having something to buy as well as favorable rates, which should remain, so there's no pressure there, either. That will again be the case next week, where we think it'll be more of the same, with the average offered rate for a conforming 30-year fixed rate mortgage wobbling a couple of basis points at best when Freddie Mac reports next Thursday morning -- most likely upward.