Statistical Tables | Labor Day, Labor Concerns

Trends at a Glance
(Single-family Homes)
  Aug 22 Jul 22 Aug 21
Median Price: $1,230,000 $1,320,000 $1,300,000
Average Price: $1,333,080 $1,412,734 $1,406,404
Home Sales: 766 702 1,112
SP/LP Ratio: 103.4% 107.5% 112.8%
Days on Market: 23 18 14
(Condos/Townhomes)
  Aug 22 Jul 22 Aug 21
Median Price: $720,000 $728,500 $711,000
Average Price: $758,998 $755,852 $741,882
Condo Sales: 253 234 379
SP/LP Ratio: 101.1% 102.7% 106.3%
Days on Market: 25 19 18

Home Sales and Prices Decline

Sales of single-family, re-sale homes fell 31.1% from last year. That’s the eleventh month in a row home sales have been lower than the year before. There were 766 homes sold in Alameda County last month. The average since 2000 is 921.

After being higher than the year before thirty-five months in a row, the average sales price for single-family, re-sale homes was down 5.2%. It was down 5.6% from July.

After being higher than the year before twenty-six months in a row, the median sales price for single-family, re-sale homes was down 5.4%. It was down 6.8% from July.

The sales price to list price ratio fell from 107.5% to 103.4%.

Homes sold in twenty-three days. This is the time from being listed to going under contract.

The average sales price for condos was up 2.3% year-over-year. It was up 0.4% from July. The median sales price was up 1.3% year-over-year. It was down 1.2% from July.

The sales price to list price ratio for condos fell from 102.7% to 101.1%.

Condo sales were down 33.2% from last year. There were 253 condos sold.

Condos sold on average in twenty-five days.

Momentum Statistics

Sales momentum…
for single-family homes fell 7.8 points to –21.8.

Pricing momentum…
for single-family homes was down 1.9 points to +13.

Our momentum statistics are based on 12-month moving averages to eliminate monthly and seasonal variations.

This is an extraordinarily tough market for buyers. It's important to be calm and realistic. If you don't know what to do or where to begin, give me a call and let's discuss your situation and your options.

If you’re looking to sell, call me for a comprehensive Comparative Market Analysis.

Our momentum statistics are based on 12-month moving averages to eliminate monthly and seasonal variations.

This is an extraordinarily tough market for buyers. It's important to be calm and realistic. If you don't know what to do or where to begin, give me a call and let's discuss your situation and your options.

If you’re looking to sell, call me for a comprehensive Comparative Market Analysis.

In the chart below…

the blue area shows momentum for home sales while the red line shows momentum for pending sales of single-family, re-sale homes. The purple line shows momentum for the median price.

This is an extraordinarily tough market for buyers. It's important to be calm and realistic. If you don't know what to do or where to begin, give me a call and let's discuss your situation and your options.

 

Alameda County Days on Market

Alameda County Days on Market

The real estate market is very hard to generalize. It is a market made up of many micro markets. For complete information on a particular neighborhood or property, call me.

If I can help you devise a strategy, call or click the buying or selling link in the menu to the left.

Monthly Statistics

Complete monthly sales statistics for the Alameda County are below. Monthly graphs are available for each city in the county.

August Sales Statistics
(Single-family Homes)
  Prices Unit     Change from last year Change from last month
Area Median Average Sales DOM SP/LP Median Average Sales Median Average Sales
County $1,230,000 $1,333,080 766 23 103.4% -5.4% -5.2% -31.1% -6.8% -5.6% 9.1%
Alameda $1,600,000 $1,508,266 32 16 106.3% 15.3% 5.8% -22.0% 9.2% 0.9% -5.9%
Albany $1,525,000 $1,593,750 8 18 120.1% 3.9% -6.0% 0.0% 2.7% 8.4% -27.3%
Berkeley $1,480,000 $1,739,838 37 19 116.6% -7.5% 2.8% -43.9% -15.4% -5.3% -14.0%
Castro Valley $1,140,000 $1,176,961 52 27 103.1% -9.3% -6.5% -3.7% -2.5% -0.4% 48.6%
Dublin $1,587,500 $1,610,025 32 14 107.2% -2.3% -8.4% -43.9% 2.1% -8.9% 6.7%
Fremont $1,455,000 $1,608,729 92 23 108.1% -1.5% -2.8% -50.5% -10.5% -9.1% 12.2%
Hayward $885,000 $975,319 69 23 107.8% -2.7% -5.3% -33.7% -1.9% -3.0% 23.2%
Livermore $1,125,000 $1,257,971 69 25 107.3% -1.3% 3.6% -36.7% -3.0% 0.1% -4.2%
Newark $1,191,000 $1,297,138 29 25 106.8% -8.1% 1.8% 3.6% -20.6% -14.4% 70.6%
Oakland $1,100,000 $1,198,743 199 23 115.1% 7.8% 4.5% -16.7% 0.9% 2.2% 5.9%
Piedmont $2,660,500 $3,330,402 10 21 116.8% 0.2% 18.8% -33.3% 18.6% 18.6% -16.7%
Pleasanton $1,575,000 $1,684,769 54 25 106.1% -7.9% -17.2% -40.7% -7.5% -10.9% -6.9%
San Leandro $825,000 $858,474 39 22 107.5% -8.3% -12.8% -31.6% -19.1% -18.2% 21.9%
San Lorenzo $830,000 $825,286 21 23 104.3% -10.3% -8.7% 61.5% -2.4% -0.8% 23.5%
Union City $1,300,000 $1,289,935 23 36 113.2% 0.0% -5.3% -46.5% -3.7% -12.1% 76.9%

 

August Sales Statistics
(Condos/Town Homes)
  Prices Unit     Change from last year Change from last month
  Median Average Sales DOM SP/LP Median Average Sales Median Average Sales
County $720,000 $758,998 253 25 101.1% 1.3% 2.3% -33.2% 0.4% -1.2% 8.1%
Alameda $900,000 $912,391 17 17 114.2% -7.2% -4.5% -19.0% -7.6% -2.7% 0.0%
Albany $540,000 $550,600 5 30 102.7% -6.9% -9.4% -58.3% 0.6% 9.1% -16.7%
Berkeley $854,500 $822,958 12 25 103.0% 19.7% 27.1% 20.0% -7.1% -0.1% -7.7%
Castro Valley $877,500 $853,800 10 27 99.2% 7.3% 7.2% 11.1% 13.7% 23.1% 66.7%
Dublin $950,000 $943,312 24 26 97.7% 16.6% 12.9% -48.9% -11.5% -5.9% -27.3%
Emeryville $460,000 $506,111 9 31 98.3% -33.3% -27.0% -55.0% -32.6% -36.9% 12.5%
Fremont $800,000 $850,195 41 22 100.2% 1.3% 2.0% -28.1% -8.3% -9.8% -33.9%
Hayward $589,000 $624,240 21 27 100.9% -4.2% -4.0% -48.8% -17.1% -23.5% -43.2%
Livermore $815,000 $790,219 16 21 99.2% 4.8% 2.4% -20.0% -11.8% -12.7% -38.5%
Newark $745,000 $872,523 17 17 99.7% -14.5% -2.0% -10.5% -2.4% -18.4% 41.7%
Oakland $600,000 $644,766 51 34 101.3% -9.8% -7.5% -35.4% -10.9% -9.4% -37.8%
Pleasanton $650,000 $772,891 11 20 100.1% -13.9% -3.8% -56.0% -20.1% -32.3% -26.7%
San Leandro $480,500 $477,050 10 19 100.9% -19.2% -20.7% -28.6% -21.8% -14.2% -37.5%
Union City $573,000 $696,750 8 31 99.4% -6.8% 9.2% -46.7% 3.8% -8.0% -63.6%

Labor Day, Labor Concerns

Sept 2, 2022 -- The calendar page turned again this week, and summer is at or coming to a close, depending on which point-in-time marker you may prefer. We're now into the final month the third quarter, and while there are sporadic clues that the economy and inflation are both moderating, it's not clear that there is sufficient moderation to keep the Fed from tightening policy aggressively again at its coming meeting.

Imbalance in the labor market has been a chief concern of the central bank for months, as tight labor markets are lifting wages and threatening to worsen or perpetuate price pressures. Simply put, the number of available jobs continues to outstrip the number of folks either willing or able to fill them. This gap is something the Fed very much wants to close, preferably without seriously damaging the economy or the labor market -- a hoped-for "soft landing".

The sharp slowdown in the housing market is starting to be reflected in outlays for new construction projects. Construction spending declined by 0.4% in July, dragged down by a 1.5% decline in outlays for residential projects. Sales of newly constructed homes have flagged this year under adverse conditions, and supplies of new homes are at about 13-year highs, so it's little wonder that less money is being spent to start new housing developments. Residential spending was the only drag in July, as non-residential projects saw an increase of 0.4%, and public-works spending expanded by a stout 1.5% for the month. Perhaps some of the money earmarked in the "infrastructure" bill signed into law earlier this year is starting to show up in public projects.

Applications for mortgage credit continued their 2022 downtrend this week. The Mortgage Bankers Association reported a 3.7% drop in requests for mortgages in the week ending August 26, and applications are at their lowest point since 1999. Applications for purchase-money mortgages dipped another 1.8%, while those for refinancing slumped by 7.8% last week. Of late, mortgage rates have started moving back up toward the cyclical highs seen back at the official start of summer in June; with just a couple of weeks to go to before summer officially ends and fall begins, and given the recent trend, we seem likely to return to those early-summer levels for mortgage rates before long.

There was really nothing in the data this week to refute the notion that the Fed will continue to be aggressive at its meeting this month, and perhaps beyond. The argument for a 75 basis point increase may have been weakened slightly as the labor data released this week wasn't off-the-charts strong; at the same time it was plenty strong enough to suggest that the economy can easily withstand monetary policy being moved to a more restrictive stance from its current "in the range of neutral" position. Price pressures are showing tentative signs of slowing and that may continue for a time as lower energy costs work their way through the economy, but are plenty of reasons to think that such declines aren't durable, and the Fed largely discounts them, anyway.

Investors continued to adjust their positions this week after Fed Chair Powell's message reinforcement last week, and underlying interest rates that influence mortgages continue to rise as a result. The somewhat-less-stronger-than-feared employment report tempered the recent rise in rates a bit, trimming off just a few basis points from an otherwise considerable increase in yields this week. As yields finished the week higher than where they began, mortgage rates are likely to push higher again next week again. Presently, the average offered rate for a conforming 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is only 15 basis points below its high for this cycle so far, and that gap will likely be closed considerably when the next report comes from Freddie Mac on Thursday morning.