Statistical Tables | Core Three Point Four

Trends at a Glance
(Single-family Homes)
  Jun 21 May 21 Jun 20
Median Price: $1,300,000 $1,305,000 $1,000,000
Average Price: $1,401,384 $1,398,699 $1,095,037
Home Sales: 1,190 1,103 545
SP/LP Ratio: 115.8% 115.6% 102.6%
Days on Market: 12 12 25
(Condos/Townhomes)
  Jun 21 May 21 Jun 20
Median Price: $740,000 $713,000 $635,000
Average Price: $771,021 $747,788 $659,964
Condo Sales: 414 422 137
SP/LP Ratio: 107.5% 107.2% 100.3%
Days on Market: 15 16 31

Sales Prices Set New Highs, Again

The average sales price set a new high for the second month in a row. It was up, year-over-year, for the twenty-second month in a row. It rose 28%.

The median sales price for single-family, re-sale homes backed off a bit after setting new highs five months in a row. It was up, year-over-year, for the thirteenth month in a row. It rose 30%.

The sales price to list price ratio rose from 115.6% to 115.8%.

Sales of single-family, re-sale homes continued to rise in June, gaining 118.3% from last year. That’s the twelfth month in a row home sales have been higher than the year before. There were 1,190 homes sold in Alameda County last month. The average since 2000 is 921.

Homes sold in twelve days. This is the time from being listed to going under contract.

Condo sales prices also set new highs last month. The average sales price for condos was up 16.8% year-over-year. The median sales price was up 16.5% year-over-year.

The sales price to list price ratio for condos rose to 107.5% from 107.2%.

Condo sales were up 202.2% from last year. There were 414 condos sold.

Condos sold on average in fifteen days.

Momentum Statistics

Sales momentum…

for single-family homes rose 8.9 points to +25.3.

Pricing momentum…

for single-family homes was up 1.5 points to +16.7.

Our momentum statistics are based on 12-month moving averages to eliminate monthly and seasonal variations.

This is an extraordinarily tough market for buyers. It's important to be calm and realistic. If you don't know what to do or where to begin, give me a call and let's discuss your situation and your options.

If you’re looking to sell, call me for a comprehensive Comparative Market Analysis.

In the chart below…

the blue area shows momentum for home sales while the red line shows momentum for pending sales of single-family, re-sale homes. The purple line shows momentum for the median price.

This is an extraordinarily tough market for buyers. It's important to be calm and realistic. If you don't know what to do or where to begin, give me a call and let's discuss your situation and your options.

 

Alameda County Days on Market

Alameda County Days on Market

The real estate market is very hard to generalize. It is a market made up of many micro markets. For complete information on a particular neighborhood or property, call me.

If I can help you devise a strategy, call or click the buying or selling link in the menu to the left.

Monthly Statistics

Complete monthly sales statistics for the Alameda County are below. Monthly graphs are available for each city in the county.

June Sales Statistics
(Single-family Homes)
  Prices Unit     Change from last year Change from last month
Area Median Average Sales DOM SP/LP Median Average Sales Median Average Sales
County $1,300,000 $1,401,384 1,190 12 115.8% 30.0% 28.0% 118.3% -0.4% 0.2% 7.9%
Alameda $1,610,000 $1,694,827 55 11 106.3% 31.4% 33.2% 161.9% 15.0% 14.8% 48.6%
Albany $1,243,500 $1,288,800 10 14 120.1% -4.3% 1.9% 25.0% -20.5% -15.9% -33.3%
Berkeley $1,672,500 $1,928,181 58 11 116.6% 23.9% 42.4% 205.3% 10.4% 11.9% 7.4%
Castro Valley $1,290,000 $1,333,933 44 10 103.1% 40.7% 41.5% 91.3% 8.0% 5.1% -15.4%
Dublin $1,425,000 $1,570,306 64 8 107.2% 41.5% 52.5% 190.9% -1.7% 2.9% 4.9%
Fremont $1,480,000 $1,637,909 149 10 108.1% 22.8% 25.2% 122.4% 2.1% 4.8% 10.4%
Hayward $937,500 $1,001,341 96 11 107.8% 23.9% 21.3% 92.0% 2.5% -1.5% 39.1%
Livermore $1,130,000 $1,262,679 136 9 107.3% 32.9% 32.9% 88.9% -2.2% -2.2% 12.4%
Newark $1,200,000 $1,209,385 39 8 106.8% 26.3% 20.4% 129.4% 0.0% -2.9% -23.5%
Oakland $1,110,000 $1,223,775 313 17 115.1% 8.8% 13.5% 131.9% -7.5% -0.8% 11.0%
Piedmont $3,000,000 $3,505,579 19 8 116.8% 24.7% 42.0% 280.0% -0.8% 1.9% 5.6%
Pleasanton $1,619,605 $1,773,220 92 10 106.1% 30.9% 27.8% 73.6% -4.2% -7.4% -5.2%
San Leandro $880,000 $884,453 64 12 107.5% 18.1% 10.1% 146.2% 0.3% -2.7% 14.3%
San Lorenzo $880,000 $889,571 14 8 104.3% 21.6% 24.2% 40.0% 2.9% 3.2% 7.7%
Union City $1,412,000 $1,393,871 33 8 113.2% 58.7% 47.8% 94.1% 8.6% 6.9% -19.5%

 

June Sales Statistics
(Condos/Town Homes)
  Prices Unit     Change from last year Change from last month
  Median Average Sales DOM SP/LP Median Average Sales Median Average Sales
County $740,000 $771,021 414 15 107.5% 16.5% 16.8% 202.2% 3.1% 3.8% -1.9%
Alameda $880,000 $931,505 18 8 110.3% 20.5% 44.6% 157.1% 11.1% 7.3% 12.5%
Albany $615,000 $575,000 5 27 102.7% -0.8% -8.0% 66.7% -8.2% 25.5% -28.6%
Berkeley $800,000 $873,607 13 24 111.7% 21.2% 32.1% 160.0% -1.4% -8.0% 18.2%
Castro Valley $940,000 $938,636 11 8 109.3% 16.2% 25.5% 22.2% 39.5% 48.0% 57.1%
Dublin $877,500 $900,011 46 8 110.7% 32.0% 26.4% 48.4% 2.8% -2.5% -4.2%
Emeryville $550,000 $601,077 13 31 106.0% -5.5% 1.1% 62.5% 13.0% 7.8% -23.5%
Fremont $730,000 $829,540 97 14 105.3% -15.6% 0.0% 212.9% 6.5% 2.8% 32.9%
Hayward $646,500 $661,413 36 9 109.1% 18.0% 17.3% 71.4% 2.8% 0.2% 24.1%
Livermore $792,000 $755,509 23 11 107.4% 17.9% 18.3% -23.3% 5.7% 6.7% -23.3%
Newark $600,000 $643,419 15 22 103.3% -15.5% -8.3% 275.0% -24.4% -34.1% -25.0%
Oakland $700,000 $714,059 93 24 106.0% 12.7% 11.1% 86.0% -1.2% 7.7% -16.2%
Pleasanton $820,000 $836,400 15 8 111.1% 15.5% 27.8% 66.7% -5.0% -6.8% -25.0%
San Leandro $575,000 $595,420 15 13 108.7% 6.5% 11.7% 66.7% 9.0% 9.0% -6.3%
Union City $648,000 $676,795 14 11 109.5% 16.8% 21.5% 180.0% -1.4% 8.0% -17.6%

Core Three Point Four

July 2, 2021 -- Things here in the U.S. are in a far better place at the turn of midyear compared to where they began. Post holidays, and through mid-winter, COVID-19 was raging anew and widespread vaccination efforts just getting underway. Hundreds of thousands of new cases were being reported daily, and health care systems were again struggling to keep up. Despite the viral surge, and amid both continuing and new restrictions, the economy was recovering well, but unevenly, necessitating several new rounds of fiscal support to accompany the Fed's all-in stance for monetary policy.

Fast forward six months and the picture is very changed, if not completely. Despite a new Delta variant that threatens to become an echo surge, reported cases of coronavirus are running at levels comparable to the very first days of the outbreak. Inoculation rates have slowed of late, but something on the order of 55% of eligible Americans have had at least one dose of a vaccine, and about 47% are fully vaccinated.

Spurred on by re-opening, removal of restriction and blasts of cash from the federal government, the economy again accelerated, with GDP growth running a 6.4% annual rate in the first quarter and a current estimate of over 7% in the second quarter. Although job growth overall may be a little less robust than some forecasts may have expected, about 3.2 million people have rejoined the workforce over the last six months, and claims for all forms of jobless assistance have retreated from well over 1 million claims every week to something less than half that.

Another facet that has changed appreciably in the last six months is the inflation picture. At the turn of the year, inflation was still tame, with inflation as measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditure series running at just a 1.4% rate in both "headline" and core reckonings. Five months on (June data not available until July's end), these figures are 3.9% and 3.4%, with price increases now at 13- and 29-year highs, respectively.

With a strong economy in place and core prices now above the Fed's 2% target for the last couple of months, the Fed is starting to make rumblings about future changes in policy. At the turn of the year, the official stance was that rock-bottom rates and QE-style bond-buying programs would run indefinitely, and Fed members didn't expect to be raising the federal funds rate until perhaps 2024. Six months later, no changes have yet occurred, but the Fed is said to be discussing the tapering of bond buying (Our guess: later this year) and estimates of when a change to interest rate policy will come have advanced into 2023, with a majority of Fed members expecting not one but perhaps two increases in short-term rates by that time.

Change has come rapidly across some very important components of the current environment. Surprisingly, long-term interest rates and mortgage rates have been well behaved, rising from record lows to start the year, increasing by about a half-percentage point, then settling back to approximately the middle of this range and holding there for 12 weeks now. Although fewer remain in the eligible pool, this has continued to allow homeowners to refinance profitably or extract cash from their homes. For homebuyers, it has been both a blessing and a curse, since even as they can help to keep monthly payments relatively affordable, low rates continue to fuel demand for homes for which there is little supply, in turn pushing the prices of homes ever higher.

With challenges facing both new and existing home markets, sales of homes have been a little soggy of late, if still at historically sound levels. However, there is at least one indicator that suggests that sales may pick up a bit again, as the National Association of Realtors Pending Home Sales Index for May rose by 8% for the month. This measure of signed sales contracts presages the actual tally of homes sold by a month or two, since it takes time to get from contact signing to closing. Sales of existing homes have been generally cooling this year; after peaking at an annual rate of 6.73 million last October they have settled to May's 5.8 million pace. The bump in signed contracts in May should push this figure up a bit by July, even if not all deals actually come to fruition.

Despite very stable mortgage rates, applications for mortgage credit dropped off by 6.9% in the week ending June 25. Requests for purchase-money mortgages slid by 4.8% while those for refinancing retreated by 8.2%. With conditions in mortgage markets largely unchanged, there doesn't seem to be any specific reason for the drop in requests for financing; looking back at the same weeks over the last five years it seems as though there is often a dip in applications in around this time of the year. Perhaps with many schools coming to the end of the academic year folks simple have other things to do, or perhaps vacations beckon. Whatever the reason, fundamentals for mortgages haven't changed all that much, but with the Independence Day holiday now upon us, we may not see an uptick in applications for a week or more yet.