Statistical Tables | Filling The Holes

Trends at a Glance
(Single-family Homes)
  Mar 21 Feb 21 Mar 20
Median Price: $1,140,000 $1,100,000 $979,000
Average Price:       1,260,162       1,210,824       1,132,206
Home Sales: $875 $611 $647
SP/LP Ratio: 114% 110% 107%
Days on Market: 14 18 19
(Condos/Townhomes)
  Mar 21 Feb 21 Mar 20
Median Price: $680,000 $655,000 $649,444
Average Price:          697,024          691,885          676,641
Condo Sales: $335 $250 $284
SP/LP Ratio: 106% 104% 103%
Days on Market: 22 28 25

Home Sales Prices Set New Highs

The median sales price for single-family, re-sale homes set a new high, again. It was up, year-over-year, for the tenth month in a row. It rose 16.4%.

The average sales price set a new high for the sixth time in the past eight months. It was up, year-over-year, for the nineteenth month in a row. It rose 11.3%.
The sales price to list price ratio rose from 110.1% to 113.6%.

Sales of single-family, re-sale homes continued to rise in March, gaining 35.2% from last year. That’s the ninth month in a row home sales have been higher than the year before. There were 875 homes sold in Alameda County last month. The average since 2000 is 921.

Homes sold in fourteen days. This is the time from being listed to going under contract.

The average sales price for condos was up 3% year-over-year. The median sales price was up 4.7% year-over-year.

The sales price to list price ratio for condos rose from 103.5% to 106%.

Condo sales were up 18% from last year. There were 335 condos sold.

Condos sold on average in twenty-two days.

Momentum Statistics

Sales momentum…

for single-family homes rose 3.9 points to –3.0.

Pricing momentum…

for single-family homes was up 0.6 of a point to +12.3.

Our momentum statistics are based on 12-month moving averages to eliminate monthly and seasonal variations.

This is an extraordinarily tough market for buyers. It's important to be calm and realistic. If you don't know what to do or where to begin, give me a call and let's discuss your situation and your options.

If you’re looking to sell, call me for a comprehensive Comparative Market Analysis.

In the chart below…

the blue area shows momentum for home sales while the red line shows momentum for pending sales of single-family, re-sale homes. The purple line shows momentum for the median price.

This is an extraordinarily tough market for buyers. It's important to be calm and realistic. If you don't know what to do or where to begin, give me a call and let's discuss your situation and your options.

 

Alameda County Days on Market

Alameda County Days on Market

The real estate market is very hard to generalize. It is a market made up of many micro markets. For complete information on a particular neighborhood or property, call me.

If I can help you devise a strategy, call or click the buying or selling link in the menu to the left.

Monthly Statistics

Complete monthly sales statistics for the Alameda County are below. Monthly graphs are available for each city in the county.

March Sales Statistics
(Single-family Homes)
  Prices Unit     Change from last year Change from last month
Area Median Average Sales DOM SP/LP Median Average Sales Median Average Sales
County $1,140,000 $1,260,162 875 14 113.6% 16.4% 11.3% 35.2% 3.6% 4.1% 43.2%
Alameda $1,260,000 $1,269,082 35 26 106.3% 3.7% 0.7% 40.0% -4.2% -4.9% 34.6%
Albany $1,537,500 $1,495,625 8 9 120.1% -23.2% -25.3% 700.0% 12.8% 10.4% 33.3%
Berkeley $1,550,000 $1,741,652 68 21 116.6% -2.5% 2.6% 161.5% -1.5% 10.2% 94.3%
Castro Valley $960,000 $1,034,772 35 11 103.1% 0.8% 8.2% -2.8% -0.6% -14.0% 118.8%
Dublin $1,375,000 $1,472,555 29 5 107.2% 33.5% 35.5% -17.1% 1.9% 2.4% -6.5%
Fremont $1,330,000 $1,505,483 85 12 108.1% 6.2% 4.9% -7.6% 0.0% -2.5% 23.2%
Hayward $871,000 $922,793 60 12 107.8% 19.6% 21.1% 7.1% 0.7% -2.4% 9.1%
Livermore $1,022,500 $1,133,487 118 6 107.3% 25.4% 24.7% 73.5% 3.8% 0.5% 107.0%
Newark $1,096,500 $1,169,304 26 8 106.8% 7.0% 11.4% -10.3% -4.7% 2.9% 18.2%
Oakland $992,500 $1,130,357 242 20 115.1% 20.7% 10.2% 65.8% 7.9% 8.9% 33.0%
Piedmont $2,700,000 $2,874,286 7 18 116.8% -11.4% -10.5% -41.7% 21.8% 20.9% 16.7%
Pleasanton $1,481,000 $1,712,401 71 7 106.1% 22.4% 25.8% 39.2% 2.1% 7.0% 65.1%
San Leandro $832,000 $857,327 44 11 107.5% 11.7% 11.1% 18.9% -3.5% -6.6% 57.1%
San Lorenzo $814,000 $816,375 16 8 104.3% 11.1% 12.2% 100.0% 4.4% 6.3% -5.9%
Union City $1,070,000 $1,089,205 29 12 113.2% 13.2% 13.8% 26.1% 1.9% -2.5% 123.1%

 

March Sales Statistics
(Condos/Town Homes)
  Prices Unit     Change from last year Change from last month
  Median Average Sales DOM SP/LP Median Average Sales Median Average Sales
County $680,000 $697,024 335 22 106.0% 4.7% 3.0% 18.0% 0.7% 3.8% 34.0%
Alameda $702,000 $750,203 23 33 108.9% -14.4% -11.0% 4.5% 8.2% 7.6% 15.0%
Albany $485,500 $556,438 8 87 99.1% -5.7% -8.0% 60.0% -22.0% -31.9% 300.0%
Berkeley $831,500 $790,700 10 22 106.9% -1.8% -4.7% 66.7% 19.7% 34.4% 66.7%
Castro Valley $725,000 $701,600 5 9 111.0% 12.4% 5.4% -44.4% -12.5% -14.2% -16.7%
Dublin $785,000 $826,611 30 9 107.1% -8.5% -3.1% 114.3% -0.6% -10.8% 130.8%
Emeryville $563,500 $597,683 18 13 103.7% 8.3% 7.0% 50.0% 2.7% -6.1% 38.5%
Fremont $722,500 $767,942 36 20 103.4% 2.0% 3.2% 2.9% -1.7% -0.3% -26.5%
Hayward $615,000 $587,044 34 15 106.0% 11.8% 1.7% 126.7% 2.2% 3.4% 54.5%
Livermore $762,500 $719,214 28 9 105.6% 20.1% 20.6% 133.3% 3.9% 8.9% 64.7%
Newark $730,000 $730,273 11 15 102.6% 1.4% -3.3% -26.7% -6.5% -13.1% 22.2%
Oakland $666,000 $690,709 92 30 107.3% -8.1% -10.7% 87.8% 4.9% 7.6% 37.3%
Pleasanton $665,000 $726,153 15 21 104.1% -9.2% -3.8% 275.0% 2.8% -6.7% 50.0%
San Leandro $475,000 $492,119 12 22 107.6% -6.9% -8.7% 20.0% 6.6% -0.2% 200.0%
Union City $690,000 $701,890 11 20 106.8% 23.2% 36.0% 120.0% 1.6% 6.1% 22.2%

Filling The Holes

April 2, 2021 -- The economy was doing well and actually was starting to pick up some steam in early 2020 after being damped by all manner of "trade wars" with China and others back in 2019. Agreements being put in place and lessening of rhetoric set a new playing field, and uncertainty was beginning to lift, allowing for acceleration of growth again.

Then, the COVID-19 pandemic hit, injecting unprecedented uncertainties, cratering economies across the globe with restrictions on activity and creating gigantic holes in nearly all facets of every economy. At least initially, those holes were kept from getting deeper by extraordinary responses by central banks to create and promote liquidity and market function, and were later joined by varying rounds of fiscal stimulus to help people and industries bridge the gap the virus caused.

As beneficial as these programs may be for many, they can have disruptive effects of their own. Ultra-low rates may be great for borrowers, but bad for savers; high levels of money sloshing about an economy may lead to frothy asset prices. Blowout spending programs by the government can add to aggregate demand, which can outstrip supply, creating price pressures (transient or not) and conversely, financing all of this by issuing record levels of bonds may see greater bond supply than investor demand, pressing interest rates higher. To varying degrees, all of these have been in play so far in 2021, and interest rates and mortgage rates have firmed up considerably.

For the most part, though, the holes in the economy here and elsewhere remain. Filling them all completely will take time, but we are starting to see important steps in that process; in fact, these holes in many ways are filling up faster than had generally been expected. For example, the Federal Reserve has ratcheted up its expectations for growth and inflation notably over the last few meetings; the housing market went from a pretty pedestrian rate of existing home sales and relatively modest price gains to 14 year highs for sales and 15% annual rates of price increases.

As expected, construction spending throttled back in February as wicked winter weather curtailed activity. Overall outlays for construction projects declined by 0.8%, dragged down by a 0.2% decline in residential projects, a 1% decline in non-residential spending and a 1.7% drop in public-works project outlays. President Biden has just outlined a plan to spend a couple of trillion dollars on infrastructure spending, but a review of the bill suggest that perhaps only half of the dollars are actually aimed at roads, bridges, rails and the like. Regardless of that, spending for housing will show a sharp revival for March and non-residential will probably also recover a bit, too.

The National Association of Realtors index of Pending Home Sales dropped by 10.6% in February. Weather plays a role here -- few want to venture out in thigh deep snow or bone-chilling cold to see homes for sale -- but a serious lack of inventory to review even if one wanted to venture out, prices that are rising quickly and financing costs that were firming during the month were also likely deterrents to getting a contract to buy an existing home.

The rise in mortgage rates has leveled off, at least for now, but the increase has had the expected tempering effect on mortgage applications. The Mortgage Bankers Association reported another 2.2% decline in requests for mortgage credit in the week ending March 26, the seventh decline in the last eight weeks. Applications for purchase-money mortgages eased by 1.5%, breaking a four-week string of increases, while those for refinancing slid another 2.5%, also making it declines in 7 of the last 8 week. Refi activity is approximately at a May 2020 level, when mortgage rates were last at about present levels, give or take a few basis points.