Statistical Tables | A Bit Of Turbulence

Trends at a Glance
(Single-family Homes)
  Sep 21 Aug 21 Sep 20
Median Price: $1,280,000 $1,300,000 $1,055,000
Average Price: $1,364,903 $1,406,404 $1,165,671
Home Sales: 1,042 1,112 1,039
SP/LP Ratio: 112.3% 112.8% 106.1%
Days on Market: 15 14 20
(Condos/Townhomes)
  Sep 21 Aug 21 Sep 20
Median Price: $720,000 $711,000 $675,000
Average Price: $753,239 $741,882 $704,266
Condo Sales: 387 379 344
SP/LP Ratio: 105.1% 106.3% 101.6%
Days on Market: 20 18 26

Sales Price Continue to be Strong

The average sales price for single-family, re-sale homes was up, year-over-year, for the twenty-fifth month in a row. It rose 17.1%. It was down 3% from August.

The median sales price for single-family, re-sale homes was up, year-over-year, for the sixteenth month in a row. It rose 21.3%. It was down 1.5% from August.

The sales price to list price ratio fell from 112.8% to 112.3%.

Sales of single-family, re-sale homes continued to rise in September, gaining 0.3% from last year. That’s the fifteenth month in a row home sales have been higher than the year before. There were 1,042 homes sold in Alameda County last month. The average since 2000 is 921.

Homes sold in fifteen days. This is the time from being listed to going under contract.

Condo sales prices were also strong in September. The average sales price for condos was up 7% year-over-year. The median sales price was up 6.7% year-over-year.

The sales price to list price ratio for condos fell to 105.1% from 106.3%.

Condo sales were up 12.5% from last year. There were 387 condos sold.

Condos sold on average in twenty days. 

Momentum Statistics

Sales momentum…

for single-family homes fell 2.3 points to +31.8.

Pricing momentum…

for single-family homes was up 0.3 of a point to +18.1.

Our momentum statistics are based on 12-month moving averages to eliminate monthly and seasonal variations.

This is an extraordinarily tough market for buyers. It's important to be calm and realistic. If you don't know what to do or where to begin, give me a call and let's discuss your situation and your options.

If you’re looking to sell, call me for a comprehensive Comparative Market Analysis.

In the chart below…

the blue area shows momentum for home sales while the red line shows momentum for pending sales of single-family, re-sale homes. The purple line shows momentum for the median price.

This is an extraordinarily tough market for buyers. It's important to be calm and realistic. If you don't know what to do or where to begin, give me a call and let's discuss your situation and your options.

 

Alameda County Days on Market

Alameda County Days on Market

The real estate market is very hard to generalize. It is a market made up of many micro markets. For complete information on a particular neighborhood or property, call me.

If I can help you devise a strategy, call or click the buying or selling link in the menu to the left.

Monthly Statistics

Complete monthly sales statistics for the Alameda County are below. Monthly graphs are available for each city in the county.

September Sales Statistics
(Single-family Homes)
  Prices Unit     Change from last year Change from last month
Area Median Average Sales DOM SP/LP Median Average Sales Median Average Sales
County $1,280,000 $1,364,903 1,042 15 112.3% 21.3% 17.1% 0.3% -1.5% -3.0% -6.3%
Alameda $1,365,000 $1,329,419 37 16 106.3% 9.2% -1.2% -24.5% -1.7% -6.8% -9.8%
Albany $1,166,000 $1,123,125 8 19 120.1% -3.2% -14.5% 14.3% -20.5% -33.8% 0.0%
Berkeley $1,665,000 $1,755,171 73 19 116.6% 11.0% 6.8% 30.4% 4.1% 3.7% 10.6%
Castro Valley $1,213,889 $1,293,349 42 14 103.1% 20.8% 29.0% -30.0% -3.5% 2.8% -22.2%
Dublin $1,730,000 $1,719,694 55 10 107.2% 49.8% 41.3% 25.0% 6.5% -2.2% -3.5%
Fremont $1,477,500 $1,596,294 142 11 108.1% 18.7% 16.4% -5.3% 0.0% -3.6% -23.7%
Hayward $918,500 $1,006,328 96 14 107.8% 12.4% 18.3% 18.5% 0.9% -2.3% -7.7%
Livermore $1,132,500 $1,207,737 104 14 107.3% 27.2% 23.6% -6.3% -0.7% -0.6% -4.6%
Newark $1,215,000 $1,231,534 41 14 106.8% 13.0% 10.9% 51.9% -6.3% -3.3% 46.4%
Oakland $1,125,000 $1,235,004 247 19 115.1% 20.3% 17.1% -2.4% 10.3% 7.7% 3.3%
Piedmont $2,341,875 $2,760,775 10 12 116.8% -6.3% -3.8% -33.3% -11.8% -1.6% -33.3%
Pleasanton $1,555,000 $1,781,591 80 11 106.1% 22.9% 19.4% 6.7% -9.1% -12.4% -12.1%
San Leandro $900,000 $927,681 57 19 107.5% 18.0% 15.3% 0.0% 0.0% -5.8% 0.0%
San Lorenzo $861,500 $867,667 18 11 104.3% 21.3% 21.4% -35.7% -6.9% -4.0% 38.5%
Union City $1,382,000 $1,423,656 29 9 113.2% 28.6% 26.0% 31.8% 6.3% 4.5% -32.6%

 

September Sales Statistics
(Condos/Town Homes)
  Prices Unit     Change from last year Change from last month
  Median Average Sales DOM SP/LP Median Average Sales Median Average Sales
County $720,000 $753,239 387 20 105.1% 6.7% 7.0% 12.5% 1.5% 1.3% 2.1%
Alameda $970,000 $955,312 21 15 108.8% 29.2% 33.6% -22.2% 15.1% 9.2% 0.0%
Albany $580,000 $607,750 12 39 101.6% 31.8% 1.3% 300.0% -3.0% 18.4% 71.4%
Berkeley $714,000 $647,560 10 53 104.5% 9.0% -7.9% 11.1% -26.9% -17.9% -9.1%
Castro Valley $818,000 $796,556 9 22 109.1% 20.5% 19.1% 28.6% 18.4% 28.8% 28.6%
Dublin $815,000 $835,551 47 14 103.6% 12.4% 14.1% 34.3% -4.6% -9.4% -2.1%
Emeryville $600,000 $648,118 17 29 106.5% 27.7% 14.6% 88.9% -6.5% -13.0% -15.0%
Fremont $790,000 $833,463 57 20 102.8% 4.3% 5.1% 18.8% 7.0% 11.3% -21.9%
Hayward $615,000 $650,554 41 17 106.2% 5.1% 10.1% -8.9% 1.1% -4.7% 41.4%
Livermore $777,500 $771,639 20 16 102.3% 10.9% 10.4% -16.7% 8.0% 4.7% -33.3%
Newark $871,000 $890,573 19 13 104.5% 45.2% 31.9% 0.0% 4.7% -4.3% -5.0%
Oakland $665,000 $697,131 79 22 106.9% -5.0% -1.7% 11.3% -3.6% 2.3% -28.8%
Pleasanton $755,000 $803,560 25 10 104.3% 14.8% 20.9% 25.0% -8.7% -14.2% 25.0%
San Leandro $595,000 $601,286 14 17 107.9% -14.8% -3.4% -12.5% 10.1% 12.8% -12.5%
Union City $615,000 $638,098 15 21 105.6% -0.5% 0.9% 0.0% -7.1% 2.5% -11.8%

A Bit Of Turbulence

October 1, 2021 -- As often seems to be the case, a late-September range of crosscurrents have hit the financial markets, Of late, investors have had their choice of worries on which to focus, including political theater in Washington over spending, funding the government and raising the debt ceiling, the ever-changing economic climate, actual and possible turnover at the Fed, present COVID trends and impacts, inflation worries and more. With the change of seasons, it's clear that summer's relative quiet is behind us, and the climate has intensified a bit.

The final look at GDP growth the second quarter was revealed this week, and looking in the rearview mirror at the period that ended three months ago we see a robust economy that posted a 6.7% annual growth rate. Delta's deceleration of activity in the third quarter -- just closed yesterday -- will probably leave growth for Q3 at perhaps 4% or less (the latest run rate -- with much of September's data yet to be incorporated -- is 3.2%, according to the GDPNow tracker at the Atlanta Fed). Some growth that was expected to take place in the third quarter was likely delayed due to Delta, but some may have been lost, since at least the traditional vacation season has passed.

The yearlong uptrend in inflation may be leveling off, but there are no signs of any abatement. The Personal Income and Personal Consumption Expenditures report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis revealed that overall PCE prices rose another 0.4% in August, lifting the top line annual run rate another tenth of a percentage point to 4.3% for the month. Core PCE (the Fed's preferred price gauge) increased another 0.3% in August, the same as seen in July, and holding the annual rate of core PCE inflation at 3.6% for a third consecutive month. The Fed's stated goal is to see core PCE routinely running at about 2% or perhaps a little above it, and three months at a rate some 80% above target is something that no doubt concerns the Fed. It still expects price increases to be "transitory" but they are seemingly starting to prove a little more intractable than the Fed expected.

Construction spending failed to post an increase or decline in August, coming in unchanged from July's levels. The drag all came from the commercial sector, which declined by a full 1% during the period, it's weakest showing since February. Residential construction continues to shine, and rose by another 0.4%, a thirteenth gain in the last 14 months. Outlays for public-works projects also managed a second consecutive gain of 0.5%, as road work and education-related spending increased during the month.

Applications for mortgage credit eased back by 1.1% in the week ending September 24, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association, as requests for both purchase-money mortgages (-1.2%) and those for refinancing (-0.9%) declined. With mortgage rates bumping higher this week after a very flat summer pattern, refi activity will probably tail off again, but purchase requests shouldn't be dented too much by the minor rise in rates. With regard to home purchases, the National Association of Realtors reported an 8.1% increase in their Pending Home Sales Index for August; inasmuch as there were increases in purchase applications for three of the four weeks in August, that stands to reason. So far this month, there have been increases in purchase apps in two of the four weeks, so we could see some additional purchase activity as we move into the fall, too, especially since inventories of homes available to buy have been in a mild improving trend over the last couple of months.