Statistical Tables | | Mortgage Rates Exit March Like A Lamb
| Trends at a Glance | |||
| (Single-family Homes) | |||
| Mar 19 | Feb 19 | Mar 18 | |
| Median Price: | $912,000 | $860,000 | $950,000 |
| Average Price: | $1,033,771 | $948,703 | ####### |
| Home Sales: | 751 | 521 | 835 |
| SP/LP Ratio: | 104.9% | 103.9% | 110.1% |
| Days on Market: | 26 | 30 | 18 |
| (Condos/Townhomes) | |||
| Mar 19 | Feb 19 | Mar 18 | |
| Median Price: | $620,000 | $615,000 | $635,000 |
| Average Price: | $661,073 | $640,596 | $657,700 |
| Condo Sales: | 240 | 175 | 266 |
| SP/LP Ratio: | 102.4% | 102.8% | 108.0% |
| Days on Market: | 29 | 29 | 15 |
The real estate market in the Bay Area is beginning to heat up for three
reasons. First, spring is when the market typically becomes more active. Two,
mortgage rates are at 15-month lows. Third, IPOs have started creating instant
millionaires.
We expect 2019 to be a very strong year for the Alameda County
real estate market.
Sales prices for single-family, re-sale homes rose from the month before for
the second month in a row. The average sales price gained 9% from February.
Year-over-year, it was up 2.5%. The median price fell 4%, year-over-year. It was
up 6% from February.
Sales prices for condos were up from February. Compared
to February, the median sales price rose 0.8% and the average sale prices rose
3.2%.. The median price was down 2.4% compared to last year. The average sales
price was up 0.5%.
The sales price to list price ratio remains in triple
digits: 104.9% for homes and 102.4% for condos.
Home sales were down 10.1%
year-over-year. Sales were up 44.1% from February.
Condo sales were down 9.8%
from last year, but, they were up 37.1% from February.
Homes are selling in
twenty-six days from being listed to going under contract. Condos are taking
twenty-nine days.
Sales momentum…
for single-family homes fell one point to –2.8.
Pricing momentum…
for single-family homes was down 1.5
points to +5.7.
Our momentum statistics are based on 12-month moving averages to eliminate monthly and seasonal variations.
This is an extraordinarily tough market for buyers. It's important to be calm and realistic. If you don't know what to do or where to begin, give me a call and let's discuss your situation and your options.
If you’re looking to sell, call me
for a comprehensive Comparative Market Analysis.
the blue area shows momentum for home sales while the red line shows momentum for pending sales of single-family, re-sale homes. The purple line shows momentum for the median price.
This is an extraordinarily tough market for buyers. It's important to be calm and realistic. If you don't know what to do or where to begin, give me a call and let's discuss your situation and your options.
The real estate market is very hard to generalize. It is a market made up of many micro markets. For complete information on a particular neighborhood or property, call me.
If I can help you devise a strategy, call or click the buying or selling link in the menu to the left.
Complete monthly sales statistics for the Alameda County are below. Monthly graphs are available for each city in the county.
| March Sales Statistics | |||||||||||
| (Condos/Town Homes) | |||||||||||
| Prices | Unit | Change from last year | Change from last month | ||||||||
| Median | Average | Sales | DOM | SP/LP | Median | Average | Sales | Median | Average | Sales | |
| County | $620,000 | $661,073 | 240 | 29 | 102.4% | -2.4% | 0.5% | -9.8% | 3.2% | 0.8% | 37.1% |
| Alameda | $725,750 | $743,639 | 18 | 33 | 102.3% | -1.9% | -5.3% | 5.9% | 1.3% | 10.0% | 80.0% |
| Albany | $594,444 | $594,444 | 2 | 77 | 109.3% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| Berkeley | $751,000 | $725,876 | 9 | 26 | 108.3% | -7.9% | -10.2% | 50.0% | -6.5% | 7.3% | 50.0% |
| Castro Valley | $632,500 | $682,000 | 8 | 7 | 103.9% | 30.4% | 30.2% | 0.0% | 6.1% | 11.0% | 60.0% |
| Dublin | $701,250 | $680,719 | 16 | 36 | 99.4% | -5.0% | -7.2% | -23.8% | -3.5% | -7.1% | -5.9% |
| Emeryville | $544,000 | $532,955 | 11 | 28 | 100.9% | -11.8% | -18.0% | 37.5% | -11.0% | -9.3% | 22.2% |
| Fremont | $678,500 | $688,872 | 46 | 28 | 100.5% | -4.4% | -4.6% | 7.0% | 0.3% | 1.3% | 130.0% |
| Hayward | $597,500 | $619,559 | 20 | 33 | 100.5% | 17.4% | 21.1% | -41.2% | 7.9% | 2.5% | 5.3% |
| Livermore | $607,500 | $602,111 | 18 | 34 | 99.0% | -2.8% | -0.7% | 38.5% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 38.5% |
| Newark | $699,000 | $706,611 | 8 | 67 | 100.3% | 6.9% | 9.8% | 33.3% | 12.8% | 17.5% | 33.3% |
| Oakland | $627,500 | $685,425 | 60 | 15 | 106.3% | -0.4% | -3.0% | 5.3% | 2.6% | 0.2% | 39.5% |
| Pleasanton | $490,000 | $618,800 | 5 | 17 | 98.8% | -32.4% | -11.2% | -77.3% | -9.0% | -28.2% | -16.7% |
| San Leandro | $510,000 | $465,611 | 9 | 68 | 98.7% | 22.9% | 12.1% | -40.0% | -7.8% | -3.7% | 12.5% |
| Union City | $710,000 | $670,000 | 7 | 27 | 103.7% | 10.6% | 3.2% | -36.4% | 29.3% | 46.0% | -41.7% |
| March Sales Statistics | |||||||||||
| (Condos/Town Homes) | |||||||||||
| Prices | Unit | Change from last year | Change from last month | ||||||||
| Median | Average | Sales | DOM | SP/LP | Median | Average | Sales | Median | Average | Sales | |
| County | $620,000 | $661,073 | 240 | 29 | 102.4% | -2.4% | 0.5% | -9.8% | 3.2% | 0.8% | 37.1% |
| Alameda | $725,750 | $743,639 | 18 | 33 | 102.3% | -1.9% | -5.3% | 5.9% | 1.3% | 10.0% | 80.0% |
| Albany | $594,444 | $594,444 | 2 | 77 | 109.3% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| Berkeley | $751,000 | $725,876 | 9 | 26 | 108.3% | -7.9% | -10.2% | 50.0% | -6.5% | 7.3% | 50.0% |
| Castro Valley | $632,500 | $682,000 | 8 | 7 | 103.9% | 30.4% | 30.2% | 0.0% | 6.1% | 11.0% | 60.0% |
| Dublin | $701,250 | $680,719 | 16 | 36 | 99.4% | -5.0% | -7.2% | -23.8% | -3.5% | -7.1% | -5.9% |
| Emeryville | $544,000 | $532,955 | 11 | 28 | 100.9% | -11.8% | -18.0% | 37.5% | -11.0% | -9.3% | 22.2% |
| Fremont | $678,500 | $688,872 | 46 | 28 | 100.5% | -4.4% | -4.6% | 7.0% | 0.3% | 1.3% | 130.0% |
| Hayward | $597,500 | $619,559 | 20 | 33 | 100.5% | 17.4% | 21.1% | -41.2% | 7.9% | 2.5% | 5.3% |
| Livermore | $607,500 | $602,111 | 18 | 34 | 99.0% | -2.8% | -0.7% | 38.5% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 38.5% |
| Newark | $699,000 | $706,611 | 8 | 67 | 100.3% | 6.9% | 9.8% | 33.3% | 12.8% | 17.5% | 33.3% |
| Oakland | $627,500 | $685,425 | 60 | 15 | 106.3% | -0.4% | -3.0% | 5.3% | 2.6% | 0.2% | 39.5% |
| Pleasanton | $490,000 | $618,800 | 5 | 17 | 98.8% | -32.4% | -11.2% | -77.3% | -9.0% | -28.2% | -16.7% |
| San Leandro | $510,000 | $465,611 | 9 | 68 | 98.7% | 22.9% | 12.1% | -40.0% | -7.8% | -3.7% | 12.5% |
| Union City | $710,000 | $670,000 | 7 | 27 | 103.7% | 10.6% | 3.2% | -36.4% | 29.3% | 46.0% | -41.7% |
| March Sales Statistics | |||||||||||
| (Condos/Town Homes) | |||||||||||
| Prices | Unit | Change from last year | Change from last month | ||||||||
| Median | Average | Sales | DOM | SP/LP | Median | Average | Sales | Median | Average | Sales | |
| County | $620,000 | $661,073 | 240 | 29 | 102.4% | -2.4% | 0.5% | -9.8% | 3.2% | 0.8% | 37.1% |
| Alameda | $725,750 | $743,639 | 18 | 33 | 102.3% | -1.9% | -5.3% | 5.9% | 1.3% | 10.0% | 80.0% |
| Albany | $594,444 | $594,444 | 2 | 77 | 109.3% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| Berkeley | $751,000 | $725,876 | 9 | 26 | 108.3% | -7.9% | -10.2% | 50.0% | -6.5% | 7.3% | 50.0% |
| Castro Valley | $632,500 | $682,000 | 8 | 7 | 103.9% | 30.4% | 30.2% | 0.0% | 6.1% | 11.0% | 60.0% |
| Dublin | $701,250 | $680,719 | 16 | 36 | 99.4% | -5.0% | -7.2% | -23.8% | -3.5% | -7.1% | -5.9% |
| Emeryville | $544,000 | $532,955 | 11 | 28 | 100.9% | -11.8% | -18.0% | 37.5% | -11.0% | -9.3% | 22.2% |
| Fremont | $678,500 | $688,872 | 46 | 28 | 100.5% | -4.4% | -4.6% | 7.0% | 0.3% | 1.3% | 130.0% |
| Hayward | $597,500 | $619,559 | 20 | 33 | 100.5% | 17.4% | 21.1% | -41.2% | 7.9% | 2.5% | 5.3% |
| Livermore | $607,500 | $602,111 | 18 | 34 | 99.0% | -2.8% | -0.7% | 38.5% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 38.5% |
| Newark | $699,000 | $706,611 | 8 | 67 | 100.3% | 6.9% | 9.8% | 33.3% | 12.8% | 17.5% | 33.3% |
| Oakland | $627,500 | $685,425 | 60 | 15 | 106.3% | -0.4% | -3.0% | 5.3% | 2.6% | 0.2% | 39.5% |
| Pleasanton | $490,000 | $618,800 | 5 | 17 | 98.8% | -32.4% | -11.2% | -77.3% | -9.0% | -28.2% | -16.7% |
| San Leandro | $510,000 | $465,611 | 9 | 68 | 98.7% | 22.9% | 12.1% | -40.0% | -7.8% | -3.7% | 12.5% |
| Union City | $710,000 | $670,000 | 7 | 27 | 103.7% | 10.6% | 3.2% | -36.4% | 29.3% | 46.0% | -41.7% |
| March Sales Statistics | |||||||||||
| (Condos/Town Homes) | |||||||||||
| Prices | Unit | Change from last year | Change from last month | ||||||||
| Median | Average | Sales | DOM | SP/LP | Median | Average | Sales | Median | Average | Sales | |
| County | $620,000 | $661,073 | 240 | 29 | 102.4% | -2.4% | 0.5% | -9.8% | 3.2% | 0.8% | 37.1% |
| Alameda | $725,750 | $743,639 | 18 | 33 | 102.3% | -1.9% | -5.3% | 5.9% | 1.3% | 10.0% | 80.0% |
| Albany | $594,444 | $594,444 | 2 | 77 | 109.3% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| Berkeley | $751,000 | $725,876 | 9 | 26 | 108.3% | -7.9% | -10.2% | 50.0% | -6.5% | 7.3% | 50.0% |
| Castro Valley | $632,500 | $682,000 | 8 | 7 | 103.9% | 30.4% | 30.2% | 0.0% | 6.1% | 11.0% | 60.0% |
| Dublin | $701,250 | $680,719 | 16 | 36 | 99.4% | -5.0% | -7.2% | -23.8% | -3.5% | -7.1% | -5.9% |
| Emeryville | $544,000 | $532,955 | 11 | 28 | 100.9% | -11.8% | -18.0% | 37.5% | -11.0% | -9.3% | 22.2% |
| Fremont | $678,500 | $688,872 | 46 | 28 | 100.5% | -4.4% | -4.6% | 7.0% | 0.3% | 1.3% | 130.0% |
| Hayward | $597,500 | $619,559 | 20 | 33 | 100.5% | 17.4% | 21.1% | -41.2% | 7.9% | 2.5% | 5.3% |
| Livermore | $607,500 | $602,111 | 18 | 34 | 99.0% | -2.8% | -0.7% | 38.5% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 38.5% |
| Newark | $699,000 | $706,611 | 8 | 67 | 100.3% | 6.9% | 9.8% | 33.3% | 12.8% | 17.5% | 33.3% |
| Oakland | $627,500 | $685,425 | 60 | 15 | 106.3% | -0.4% | -3.0% | 5.3% | 2.6% | 0.2% | 39.5% |
| Pleasanton | $490,000 | $618,800 | 5 | 17 | 98.8% | -32.4% | -11.2% | -77.3% | -9.0% | -28.2% | -16.7% |
| San Leandro | $510,000 | $465,611 | 9 | 68 | 98.7% | 22.9% | 12.1% | -40.0% | -7.8% | -3.7% | 12.5% |
| Union City | $710,000 | $670,000 | 7 | 27 | 103.7% | 10.6% | 3.2% | -36.4% | 29.3% | 46.0% | -41.7% |
March 29, 2019 -- "In like a lion, out like a lamb" is an old saying about the weather in March. Given that 30-year fixed mortgage rates are ending the month more than a third of a percentage point below where they began (not to mention they are now at 15-month lows), this old aphorism might be applied to mortgage rates this month, too.
Relentless pessimism in financial markets about prospects for growth, benign and perhaps dwindling inflation and accommodating central banks around the globe have all contributed their part to the decline in longer term interest rates. In turn, long-term fixed mortgage rates fell nearly a quarter-percent in just the past week.
Six months ago, the Fed was raising interest rates and trimming its balance sheet and projecting more of the same, and the markets were generally sanguine; three months ago the Fed was raising rates and trimming its balance sheet projecting more of the same, but markets turned decidedly unhappy. In the most recent three months, we've come to see the economy slow and be interrupted by a partial government shutdown, fomenting a 180-degree turn by the Fed, who now looks to leave rates alone for some time and will end balance-sheet reductions before long.
After an unexpected flare higher in January, housing starts fell back to trend in February, posting an 8.7% month-to-month decline and landing at 1.162 million (annualized) units under construction. Starts of single-family homes slumped from 907K annualized to just 805K, but this is roughly on par with figures from November and December. Conversely, multifamily construction rebounded, with this smaller market segment putting in a 17.8% increase to 357,000 units started. Permits for future building eased by 1.6%, a second small decline, landing a 1.296 million (annual) units planned. All in all, not a great report, but of course reflective of the difficult period from which we seem to be emerging... and of course, winter months aren't often the best for construction.
That said, some optimism about housing should have come from the report on sales of new homes for February. A 4.9% increase in sales was tallied for the month, and as these sales are logged when a contract is signed, it is a figure reflective of recent demand. The increase pushed the annualized rate of sale back up to 667,000 homes sold, the highest such figure since March 2018, and a second consecutive month of rising sales. Relative to the slower rate of construction above, the increase in sales depleted inventories of unsold homes closer to normal, trimming months of stock from 6.5 in January to 6.1 in February, and importantly, the number of actual units available (340,000) has now declined for the last two months as well. With mortgage rates dropping, odds favor that we'll see firmer sales as the traditional housing season takes off, and that in turn we'll see building activity pick back up again.
Mortgage rates are down and consumers are noticing. Even without this week's drop in rates, applications for both purchase and refinancing are running at the best levels in a year, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association of America, and that doesn't even yet reflect the considerable decline in rates from this week.
Of course, by the time the news hits the headlines and consumers digest it and react, markets are already changing. Although not a huge rebound, the underlying interest rates that influence fixed-rate mortgages have firmed up in the last couple of days. As such, we expect that the big decline in rates reported this week -- the largest one-week drop in 10 years' time -- will be partially eradicated with a small rise in rates next week. At the moment, we're of the mind that the increase will be 5-7 basis points, but with a slew of new data on tap to drive the markets in the next four days, there's a chance for a bit more or less.
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