| Trends at a Glance | |||
| (Single-family Homes) | |||
| Aug 11 | Jul 11 | Aug 10 | |
| Average Price: | $672,188 | $683,195 | $730,037 |
| Home Sales: | 429 | 393 | 374 |
| Pending Sales: | 492 | 505 | 453 |
| Inventory: | 1,421 | 1,460 | 1,638 |
| Days of Inventory: | 103 | 115 | 136 |
With all the pundits talking about phantom inventory and the huge surplus of foreclosures, one would expect a massive number of bank-owned properties to be on the market.
They are not. Enquiring minds want to know why not.
First, let's look at some numbers. According to http://foreclosureradar.com, the number of bank-owned properties, called REOs, in Contra Costa County has averaged around 4,000 a month for the past year.
Yet, in the MLS, with 3,331 active listings, only 624 properties for sale are listed as REO. Of the 3,679 properties pending, 669 are REO. Now, remember, banks are not in the real estate business so they won't be selling these properties themselves. They will be listing them with real estate brokers.
Which begs the question, why aren't the rest of the REOs on the market?
Well, it's pretty simple. The banks don't like to lose money. If they put all these properties on the market at once, prices would plummet.
The banks are being very judicious about selling their REO property.
Sales of single-family, re-sale homes rose 9.2% in August from July. Home sales were up 14.2% year-over-year. Year-to-date, home sales are down 1.3%.
Pending sales, homes which are under contract and scheduled to close in the next 30 to 60 days, were up 8.6% over last August.
The average price for single-family, re-sale homes fell 1.6% compared to July. Year-over-year, the average price was off 7.9%.
for single-family, re-sale homes in Contra Costa County rose one point to �7. (See chart below)
dropped one point to -3. That's the lowest level it has reached since June 2010.
has been positive since August 2008. Last month pending momentum was flat at +16.
sales momentum by using a 12-month moving average to eliminate seasonality. By comparing this year's 12-month moving average to last year's, we get a percentage showing market momentum.
the blue area shows momentum for home sales while the red line shows momentum for pending sales of single-family, re-sale homes. The purple line shows momentum for the average price.
Inventory was down 13.2% from last August. With pending sales up and inventory down, we should start seeing some pricing pressure on the upside.
The average sales price for re-sale condos fell 3.5% compared to July. Year-over-year, the average price was down 12.7%.
Condo sales were down 6.2% compared to July. Year-over-year, condo sales were up 26.9%. Year-to-date, condo sales are up 6.6%.
Inventory was down 30.4% from last August.
Pending sales were up 46% year-over-year.
Foreclosure Statistics…
Notices of default, the first step in the foreclosure process, in Contra Costa County jumped 60.1% in August from July. Year-over-year, notices were up 2.2%, according to ForeclosureRadar.com.
Notices of sale were down 23% year-over-year.
After the filing of a Notice of Trustee Sale, there are only three possible outcomes. First, the sale can be cancelled for reasons that include a successful loan modification or short sale, a filing error, or a legal requirement to re-file the notice after extended postponements. Alternatively, if the property is taken to sale, the bank will place the opening bid. If a third party, typically an investor, bids more than the bank's opening bid, the property will be sold to the third party; if not, it will go back to the bank and become part of that bank's REO inventory.
In August, cancellations were down 16.7% year-over-year.
Properties that went back to the bank increased by 27.6% from July, but were down 13.4% year-over-year.
The total number of homes that have had a notice of default filed was down 15.4% compared to August 2010.
The total number of homes scheduled for sale decreased by 23.6%.
The total number of homes owned by the banks dropped 0.7% year-over-year.
Remember, the real estate market is a matter of neighborhoods and houses. No two are the same. For complete information on a particular neighborhood or property, call me.
P.S. The FHA requires all condo projects to be re-certified before they will make a loan. To find out if the condo project you're interested in is eligible, go here: https://entp.hud.gov/idapp/html/condlook.cfm.
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Red Bars: Buyers Market | Blue Bars: Sellers Market | Gray Bars: Balanced Market
The real estate market is very hard to generalize. It is a market made up of many micro markets. For complete information on a particular neighborhood or property, call me.
If I can help you devise a strategy, call or click the buying or selling link in the menu to the left.
Complete monthly sales statistics for Contra Costa County are below. Monthly graphs are available for each city in the county.
| August Sales Statistics | ||||||||||||
| (Single-family Homes) | ||||||||||||
| Average | Change from last year | Change from last month | ||||||||||
| Price | Sold | Pend. | Inven. | Average | Sold | Pend. | Inven. | Average | Sold | Pend. | Inven. | |
| County | $672,188 | 429 | 492 | 1,421 | -7.9% | 14.7% | 8.6% | -13.2% | -1.6% | 9.2% | -2.6% | -2.7% |
| Alamo | $1,361,965 | 29 | 23 | 100 | 16.6% | 52.6% | -14.8% | 1.0% | 5.6% | 81.3% | 4.5% | -2.9% |
| Blackhawk | $1,323,000 | 7 | 13 | 51 | 29.2% | -12.5% | 18.2% | 6.3% | 7.8% | -41.7% | 116.7% | 2.0% |
| Clayton | $515,544 | 9 | 11 | 48 | -16.8% | 12.5% | -8.3% | -5.9% | 5.2% | 125.0% | 22.2% | 6.7% |
| Concord | $327,281 | 88 | 122 | 267 | 1.4% | 31.3% | -6.2% | -2.6% | 11.9% | 6.0% | -11.6% | -1.5% |
| Danville | $876,668 | 49 | 50 | 187 | 7.5% | 16.7% | 16.3% | 4.5% | -3.5% | 11.4% | -5.7% | -4.6% |
| El Cerrito | $450,165 | 11 | n/a | n/a | -9.1% | -35.3% | n/a | n/a | 0.0% | 10.0% | n/a | n/a |
| Kensington | $668,333 | 6 | n/a | n/a | -2.8% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a | -16.8% | 20.0% | n/a | n/a |
| Lafayette | $1,032,626 | 28 | 21 | 98 | -18.8% | 16.7% | -16.0% | -10.9% | -3.8% | 0.0% | -34.4% | -13.3% |
| Martinez | $332,597 | 51 | 61 | 151 | -14.7% | 37.8% | 45.2% | 7.1% | -1.3% | 50.0% | 13.0% | 9.4% |
| Moraga | $1,013,854 | 7 | 18 | 34 | 6.5% | -46.2% | 100.0% | -24.4% | 19.1% | -53.3% | 20.0% | 3.0% |
| Orinda | $963,144 | 17 | 10 | 53 | -16.7% | -10.5% | -61.5% | -33.8% | -18.3% | 6.3% | -54.5% | -17.2% |
| Pleasant Hill | $445,006 | 25 | 35 | 88 | -12.0% | 108.3% | 16.7% | 2.3% | -2.7% | -13.8% | 12.9% | 3.5% |
| San Ramon | $720,675 | 81 | 64 | 176 | -9.6% | 32.8% | 0.0% | 2.3% | -1.3% | 32.8% | -24.7% | -11.6% |
| Walnut Creek | $666,553 | 36 | 60 | 157 | -12.1% | -10.0% | 9.1% | 2.6% | -1.2% | -25.0% | 62.2% | 1.3% |
| August Sales Statistics | ||||||||||||
| (Condos/Townhomes) | ||||||||||||
| Average | Change from last year | Change from last month | ||||||||||
| Price | Sold | Pend | Inven. | Average | Sold | Pend. | Inven. | Average | Sold | Pend. | Inven. | |
| County | $241,236 | 198 | 289 | 589 | -12.7% | 26.9% | 46.0% | -30.4% | -3.5% | -6.2% | 11.6% | -1.3% |
| Clayton | $304,000 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -23.8% | 100.0% | -33.3% | -63.6% | 53.5% | 100.0% | -60.0% | -33.3% |
| Concord | $110,589 | 33 | 69 | 102 | -7.5% | -5.7% | 32.7% | -42.4% | 9.4% | -31.3% | 23.2% | 4.1% |
| Danville | $450,903 | 16 | 21 | 35 | 13.2% | 14.3% | 10.5% | -20.5% | 2.5% | -5.9% | 50.0% | 6.1% |
| Martinez | $180,557 | 29 | 21 | 40 | -15.8% | 222.2% | 162.5% | -4.8% | 28.0% | 61.1% | -27.6% | 0.0% |
| Moraga | $414,100 | 6 | 6 | 21 | -17.7% | 20.0% | 0.0% | -22.2% | 21.1% | -25.0% | -14.3% | 0.0% |
| Pleasant Hill | $208,071 | 7 | 12 | 37 | -36.5% | -22.2% | -25.0% | -5.1% | -14.3% | -30.0% | -14.3% | 5.7% |
| Rossmoor | $210,196 | 48 | 50 | 148 | -14.3% | 77.8% | 38.9% | -6.9% | -26.2% | 17.1% | 22.0% | 0.0% |
| San Ramon | $334,796 | 25 | 40 | 80 | 0.7% | 31.6% | 25.0% | -24.5% | 20.7% | -13.8% | -21.6% | -12.1% |
| Walnut Creek | $260,828 | 29 | 63 | 110 | -20.9% | 11.5% | 96.9% | -25.2% | -12.5% | -14.7% | 57.5% | -2.7% |
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