Statistical Tables | | Tempering Expectations
| Trends at a Glance | |||
| (Single-family Homes) | |||
| Oct 25 | Sep 25 | Oct 24 | |
| Home Sales: | 264 | 168 | 235 |
| Median Price: | $1,499,000 | $1,499,500 | $1,750,000 |
| Average Price: | $2,236,538 | $1,931,047 | $2,334,109 |
| SP/LP: | 98.9% | 99.4% | 109.1% |
| Days on Market: | 24 | 25 | 22 |
| (Lofts/Townhomes/TIC) | |||
| Oct 25 | Sep 25 | Oct 24 | |
| Condo Sales: | 301 | 219 | 207 |
| Median Price: | $1,149,000 | $999,000 | $1,250,000 |
| Average Price: | $1,310,239 | $1,229,555 | $1,415,180 |
| SP/LP: | 95.9% | 98.5% | 101.9% |
| Days on Market: | 46 | 46 | 48 |
The median sales price for single-family, re-sale homes was down 14.3%
year-over-year.
The average sales price for single-family, re-sale homes was up 15.8%
month-over-month. Year-over-year, it was down 4.2%.
Sales of single-family, re-sale homes rose 12.3% year-over-year. There were 264
homes sold in San Francisco last month. The average since 2000 is 214.
The median sales price for
condos/lofts
was down 8.1% year-over-year.
The average sales price was down 7.4% year-over-year.
Sales of
condos/lofts
rose 45.4% year-over-year. There were 301
condos/lofts
sold last month. The average since 2000 is 230.
The sales price to list price ratio, or what buyers are paying over what sellers
are asking, fell from 99.4% to 98.9% for homes. The ratio for condos/townhomes
fell from 98.5% to 95.9%.
Average days on market, or the time from when a property is listed to when it
goes into contract, was 24 for homes and 46 for condos/lofts.
Sales momentum…
for homes fell from +6.7 to +5.8. Sales momentum for condos/lofts was up 2.4
points to +17.2.
Pricing momentum…
for single-family homes fell 1.8 points to -1.8.
Pricing momentum for condos/lofts fell 1.6 points to –4.5.
Our momentum statistics are based on 12-month moving averages to eliminate
monthly and seasonal variations.
If you are planning on selling your property, call me for a free comparative
market analysis.
momentum by using a 12-month moving average to eliminate seasonality. By comparing this year's 12-month moving average to last year's, we get a percentage showing market momentum.
the blue area shows momentum for home sales while the red line shows momentum for pending sales of single-family, re-sale homes. The purple line shows momentum for the average price.
As you can see, pricing momentum has an inverse relationship to sales momentum.
The graph below shows the median and average prices plus unit sales for homes.
Remember, the real estate market is a matter of neighborhoods and houses. No two are the same. For complete information on a particular neighborhood or property, call me.
P.S. The FHA requires all condo projects to be re-certified before they will make a loan. To find out if the condo project you're interested in is eligible, go here: https://entp.hud.gov/idapp/html/condlook.cfm.
The graph below shows the median and average prices plus unit sales for condos/lofts.
The real estate market is very hard to generalize. It is a market made up of many micro markets. For complete information on a particular neighborhood or property, call me.
If I can help you devise a strategy, call or click the buying or selling link in the menu to the left.
Complete monthly sales statistics for San Francisco are below. Monthly graphs are available for each area in the city.
| October Sales Statistics | |||||||||||
| (Single-family Homes) | |||||||||||
| Prices | Unit | Yearly Change | Monthly Change | ||||||||
| Median | Average | Sales | DOM | SP/LP | Median | Average | Sales | Median | Average | Sales | |
| San Francisco | $1,499,000 | $2,236,538 | 264 | 24 | 98.9% | -14.3% | -4.2% | 12.3% | 0.0% | 15.8% | 57.1% |
| D1: Northwest | $2,200,000 | $2,726,733 | 15 | 39 | 111.7% | 15.8% | 16.0% | -40.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| D2: Central West | $1,615,000 | $1,880,781 | 32 | 14 | 120.8% | 0.3% | 9.2% | -22.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| D3: Southwest | $1,290,000 | $1,499,750 | 16 | 26 | 109.8% | -3.6% | 11.1% | 45.5% | 0.2% | 16.5% | 700.0% |
| D4: Twin Peaks | $2,275,000 | $2,397,510 | 31 | 16 | 107.9% | 27.5% | 10.3% | -6.1% | 28.1% | 24.7% | 55.0% |
| D5: Central | $2,250,000 | $2,584,390 | 49 | 30 | 111.3% | -7.9% | -13.1% | 16.7% | -26.2% | -24.6% | 96.0% |
| D6: Central North | $1,372,500 | $1,271,250 | 4 | 28 | 114.4% | -58.5% | -61.5% | 300.0% | -36.2% | -53.9% | 33.3% |
| D7: North | $7,641,500 | $8,338,875 | 16 | 41 | 97.8% | 62.6% | 26.5% | -5.9% | 78.6% | 92.4% | 60.0% |
| D8: Northeast | $2,235,000 | $2,097,250 | 4 | 34 | 104.4% | n/a | n/a | n/a | -24.9% | -25.0% | 0.0% |
| D9: Central East | $1,712,500 | $1,971,764 | 32 | 24 | 115.2% | -3.5% | 0.0% | 33.3% | -1.0% | 12.8% | 52.4% |
| D10: Southeast | $999,500 | $1,081,069 | 36 | 35 | 109.3% | -12.1% | -8.8% | -10.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| October Sales Statistics | |||||||||||
| (Condos/TICs/Co-ops/Lofts) | |||||||||||
| Prices | Unit | Yearly Change | Monthly Change | ||||||||
| Median | Average | Sales | DOM | SP/LP | Median | Average | Sales | Median | Average | Sales | |
| San Francisco | $1,149,000 | $1,310,239 | 301 | 46 | 95.9% | -8.1% | -7.4% | 45.4% | 15.0% | 6.6% | 37.4% |
| D1: Northwest | $1,350,000 | $1,500,058 | 14 | 14 | 108.0% | -14.3% | -1.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| D2: Central West | $1,560,000 | $1,443,333 | 3 | 27 | 98.9% | 24.7% | 11.1% | -50.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| D3: Southwest | $710,000 | $651,000 | 3 | 54 | 99.4% | n/a | n/a | n/a | 42.3% | 30.5% | 50.0% |
| D4: Twin Peaks | $1,010,000 | $886,000 | 5 | 22 | 102.1% | 23.2% | 6.3% | 0.0% | 55.4% | 28.6% | 0.0% |
| D5: Central | $1,433,000 | $1,393,793 | 35 | 42 | 104.4% | -13.2% | -15.8% | 6.1% | 24.6% | 9.6% | 0.0% |
| D6: Central North | $1,200,000 | $1,240,321 | 29 | 22 | 106.8% | 18.1% | 12.0% | 7.4% | 5.4% | 0.8% | 31.8% |
| D7: North | $1,675,000 | $2,052,101 | 33 | 44 | 102.1% | -16.7% | 4.9% | 65.0% | -5.5% | 7.4% | 37.5% |
| D8: Northeast | $990,000 | $1,072,776 | 49 | 54 | 101.8% | -30.2% | -30.1% | 40.0% | 9.2% | -2.6% | 36.1% |
| D9: Central East | $1,060,000 | $1,281,749 | 79 | 60 | 99.8% | 4.7% | -2.0% | 36.2% | 15.8% | 7.0% | 11.3% |
| D10: Southeast | $650,000 | $610,000 | 3 | 37 | 99.7% | 4.9% | -16.1% | -62.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
October 31, 2025 --
The Fed trimmed short-term rates again this week, but "Let's not get ahead of
ourselves, shall we?" seemed to be the takeaway statement from Federal Reserve
Chair Powell's post-FOMC press conference. Of course, Mr. Powell wasn't quite
that direct, but the message to financial markets was certainly clear enough. "A
further reduction in the policy rate at the December meeting is not a foregone
conclusion," said the Fed leader, "in fact, far from it."
Back in September, the vote to cut the federal
funds rate wasn't unanimous, as
newly-appointed member Stephen Miran wanted to see a half-point reduction. The
latest vote to change policy was also not unanimous, but this time, Mr. Miran's
preference for a half-point cut was opposed by Jeffrey Schmidt, who preferred to
hold rates unchanged. This wasn't totally unexpected, given the divide in member
stances that was revealed in the last Summary of Economic Projections. Even with
the rift, the vote was still strongly in favor to reduce the Fed's key policy
rate.
Lower mortgage rates of late have yet to spur much by way of an increase in home
sales, but the prospects for a lift in activity remain pretty good. This week,
the National Association of Realtors reported their Pending Home Sales Index for
September, and this measure of contracts signed came in unchanged from August.
Normally, such a flat reference would suggest a touch of weakness, but in this
case it's actually a bit more optimistic than that, as the unchanged gauge
remained at its second highest level of 2025. Maintaining this level for a
second consecutive month should translate into at least a modest increase in
sales when fall sales are tallied.
Mortgage rates are roughly at levels seen a year ago, and have been wandering in
roughly the same range during the same time period as a year ago, too. Last
year, mortgage rates unfortunately began to stride higher after the Fed began
cutting rates in September, and the increase curtailed home sales heading into
the typically-slower end of year period. Unlike last year, it doesn't seem
likely that this portion of the pattern will repeat again; if anything, rates
seem more likely to be flat to perhaps somewhat lower and home sales better
supported.
While the existing home sales trend in place toward the end of last year could
hardly be considered to be robust, sales were improved compared to the very
sluggish summer/early fall months. Over the closing months of the year, existing
home sales ran at a 4.17 million annualized pace in November and 4.27 million in
December, reflective of the beneficial effect of lower mortgage rates in the
months just prior to those closings. This year, there's already been a modest
uptick in existing home sales through September; although hardly great, the 4.06
million annualized pace was the third best reading this year. With the decline
and stabilization of rates at current levels, we'd expect to see at least a
little improvement on that pace for October and perhaps beyond.
With mortgage rates gently trending lower of late, there was a pick up in
requests for mortgage credit. The Mortgage Bankers Association reported a 7.1%
increase in mortgage applications in the week ending October 24, lifted by both
a 4.5% increase in those for loans to purchase homes and a 9.3% lift in requests
for loans to replace existing mortgages. It was the first increase for
purchase-money requests in four weeks, while refinancing apps rose for a second
consecutive week.
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