Statistical Tables | | Filling The Holes

Trends at a Glance
(Single-family Homes)
  Mar 21 Feb 21 Mar 20
Home Sales: 247 157 162
Median Price:  $   1,725,000  $   1,700,000  $   1,650,000
Average Price:  $   2,226,540  $   2,293,981  $   2,084,487
SP/LP: 107.9% 105.2% 109.5%
Days on Market: 24 29 20
(Lofts/Townhomes/TIC)
  Mar 21 Feb 21 Mar 20
Condo Sales: 424 253 229
Median Price:  $   1,210,000  $   1,217,000  $   1,262,000
Average Price:  $   1,341,928  $   1,352,375  $   1,378,640
SP/LP: 102.0% 100.2% 103.4%
Days on Market: 47 64 28

Sales Continue to Surge

Sales of single-family, re-sale homes rose again in March, gaining 52.5% year-over-year. They were up 57.3% from February. There were 247 homes sold in San Francisco last month. The average since 2000 is 214.

The average sales price for homes rose 6.8% year-over-year.

The median sales price for single-family, re-sale homes rose 4.5% year-over-year.

The median sales price for condos/lofts was down 4.1% year-over-year.

The average sales price was off 2.7% year-over-year.

Sales of condos/lofts rose 85.2% year-over-year. There were 424 condos/lofts sold last month. The average since 2000 is 230.

The sales price to list price ratio, or what buyers are paying over what sellers are asking, rose from 105.2% to 107.9 % for homes. The ratio for condos/townhomes rose from 100.2% to 102%.

Average days on market, or the time from when a property is listed to when it goes into contract, was 24 for homes and 47 for condos/lofts. 

Momentum Statistics

Sales momentum…

for homes rose 3.7 points to +10.4. Sales momentum for condos/lofts was up 7.3 points to +8.6.

Pricing momentum…

for single-family homes rose 0.4 of a point to +3.8. Pricing momentum for condos/lofts fell 0.5 of a point to –5.3.

Our momentum statistics are based on 12-month moving averages to eliminate monthly and seasonal variations.

We calculate…

momentum by using a 12-month moving average to eliminate seasonality. By comparing this year's 12-month moving average to last year's, we get a percentage showing market momentum.  

In the chart below…

the blue area shows momentum for home sales while the red line shows momentum for pending sales of single-family, re-sale homes. The purple line shows momentum for the average price.

As you can see, pricing momentum has an inverse relationship to sales momentum.

The graph below shows the median and average prices plus unit sales for homes.

Remember, the real estate market is a matter of neighborhoods and houses. No two are the same. For complete information on a particular neighborhood or property, call me.

P.S. The FHA requires all condo projects to be re-certified before they will make a loan. To find out if the condo project you're interested in is eligible, go here: https://entp.hud.gov/idapp/html/condlook.cfm.

The graph below shows the median and average prices plus unit sales for condos/lofts.

The real estate market is very hard to generalize. It is a market made up of many micro markets. For complete information on a particular neighborhood or property, call me.

If I can help you devise a strategy, call or click the buying or selling link in the menu to the left.

Monthly Statistics

Complete monthly sales statistics for San Francisco are below. Monthly graphs are available for each area in the city.

March Sales Statistics
(Single-family Homes)
  Prices Unit     Yearly Change Monthly Change
  Median Average Sales DOM SP/LP Median Average Sales Median Average Sales
San Francisco $1,725,000 $2,226,540 247 24 107.9% 4.5% 6.8% 52.5% 1.5% -2.9% 57.3%
D1: Northwest $2,460,000 $2,615,578 13 167 53.4% 11.8% 9.1% 18.2% -6.3% -11.9% 0.0%
D2: Central West $1,625,000 $1,702,700 43 15 120.9% 7.6% 11.1% 34.4% 15.5% -1.3% 79.2%
D3: Southwest $1,374,000 $1,403,057 14 18 113.0% 19.5% 12.2% 55.6% 9.0% 2.7% 55.6%
D4: Twin Peaks $1,825,000 $2,079,880 33 16 113.7% -3.7% 0.1% 37.5% 4.9% 5.9% 22.2%
D5: Central $2,500,000 $3,239,302 43 20 102.7% -7.0% 21.3% 79.2% -7.4% -1.1% 43.3%
D6: Central North $3,350,000 $3,553,571 7 17 106.4% 53.0% 39.0% 75.0% 11.7% -3.1% 75.0%
D7: North $3,922,500 $5,539,167 12 35 95.6% -11.1% 9.7% 20.0% -41.9% -24.6% 100.0%
D8: Northeast $2,450,000 $2,716,667 3 32 104.6% -36.4% -29.4% 200.0% -19.0% -10.2% 200.0%
D9: Central East $1,725,000 $1,619,351 37 42 110.5% 11.3% -5.0% 94.7% 1.5% -5.4% 146.7%
D10: Southeast $1,150,000 $1,184,927 41 27 113.0% -4.8% -3.5% 57.7% 15.0% 14.8% 51.9%

 

March Sales Statistics
(Condos/TICs/Co-ops/Lofts)
  Prices Unit     Yearly Change Monthly Change
  Median Average Sales DOM SP/LP Median Average Sales Median Average Sales
San Francisco $1,210,000 $1,341,928 424 47 102.0% -4.1% -2.7% 85.2% -0.6% -0.8% 67.6%
D1: Northwest $1,425,000 $1,420,452 25 20 104.1% -13.1% -15.5% 257.1% 29.5% 16.3% 78.6%
D2: Central West $1,230,000 $1,353,286 7 63 109.9% 15.0% 29.0% 40.0% 49.1% 48.4% 40.0%
D3: Southwest $828,000 $777,667 3 43 100.9% -5.4% -11.1% 200.0% 0.1% 2.4% 0.0%
D4: Twin Peaks $675,000 $664,722 9 116 100.9% 31.4% 33.4% 50.0% -31.8% -23.7% 200.0%
D5: Central $1,400,000 $1,466,762 55 30 107.4% -1.8% 6.1% 61.8% -4.4% -1.8% 37.5%
D6: Central North $1,282,000 $1,276,993 48 36 106.7% -6.1% -6.3% 182.4% 14.5% 15.6% 33.3%
D7: North $1,562,000 $2,095,582 41 43 100.0% -4.8% 10.9% 173.3% -8.2% 15.3% 28.1%
D8: Northeast $1,150,000 $1,321,416 63 55 100.5% -4.2% -8.0% 90.9% -10.2% -5.4% 50.0%
D9: Central East $1,100,000 $1,297,115 76 67 98.6% -12.0% -3.3% -16.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
D10: Southeast $750,000 $794,490 13 44 100.9% -9.9% -4.3% 116.7% 23.0% 23.6% 333.3%

 

Filling The Holes

April 2, 2021 -- The economy was doing well and actually was starting to pick up some steam in early 2020 after being damped by all manner of "trade wars" with China and others back in 2019. Agreements being put in place and lessening of rhetoric set a new playing field, and uncertainty was beginning to lift, allowing for acceleration of growth again.

Then, the COVID-19 pandemic hit, injecting unprecedented uncertainties, cratering economies across the globe with restrictions on activity and creating gigantic holes in nearly all facets of every economy. At least initially, those holes were kept from getting deeper by extraordinary responses by central banks to create and promote liquidity and market function, and were later joined by varying rounds of fiscal stimulus to help people and industries bridge the gap the virus caused.

As beneficial as these programs may be for many, they can have disruptive effects of their own. Ultra-low rates may be great for borrowers, but bad for savers; high levels of money sloshing about an economy may lead to frothy asset prices. Blowout spending programs by the government can add to aggregate demand, which can outstrip supply, creating price pressures (transient or not) and conversely, financing all of this by issuing record levels of bonds may see greater bond supply than investor demand, pressing interest rates higher. To varying degrees, all of these have been in play so far in 2021, and interest rates and mortgage rates have firmed up considerably.

For the most part, though, the holes in the economy here and elsewhere remain. Filling them all completely will take time, but we are starting to see important steps in that process; in fact, these holes in many ways are filling up faster than had generally been expected. For example, the Federal Reserve has ratcheted up its expectations for growth and inflation notably over the last few meetings; the housing market went from a pretty pedestrian rate of existing home sales and relatively modest price gains to 14 year highs for sales and 15% annual rates of price increases.

As expected, construction spending throttled back in February as wicked winter weather curtailed activity. Overall outlays for construction projects declined by 0.8%, dragged down by a 0.2% decline in residential projects, a 1% decline in non-residential spending and a 1.7% drop in public-works project outlays. President Biden has just outlined a plan to spend a couple of trillion dollars on infrastructure spending, but a review of the bill suggest that perhaps only half of the dollars are actually aimed at roads, bridges, rails and the like. Regardless of that, spending for housing will show a sharp revival for March and non-residential will probably also recover a bit, too.

The National Association of Realtors index of Pending Home Sales dropped by 10.6% in February. Weather plays a role here -- few want to venture out in thigh deep snow or bone-chilling cold to see homes for sale -- but a serious lack of inventory to review even if one wanted to venture out, prices that are rising quickly and financing costs that were firming during the month were also likely deterrents to getting a contract to buy an existing home.

The rise in mortgage rates has leveled off, at least for now, but the increase has had the expected tempering effect on mortgage applications. The Mortgage Bankers Association reported another 2.2% decline in requests for mortgage credit in the week ending March 26, the seventh decline in the last eight weeks. Applications for purchase-money mortgages eased by 1.5%, breaking a four-week string of increases, while those for refinancing slid another 2.5%, also making it declines in 7 of the last 8 week. Refi activity is approximately at a May 2020 level, when mortgage rates were last at about present levels, give or take a few basis points.